Turkish Military Council debates promotions of coup suspects



ISTANBUL // A routine meeting of Turkey's top-ranking officers is turning into a power struggle between the military and the government. The Supreme Military Council (Yas) held the second day of its annual meeting in Ankara yesterday to discuss promotions and dismissals of officers of the armed forces, one of the most powerful institutions in the country.

One expected outcome of the meeting, scheduled to finish tomorrow, is a change of guard at the top of the military. Gen Ilker Basbug, 67, the chief of general staff, has reached retirement age and will be replaced by Gen Isik Kosaner, 64, the current commander of Turkey's land forces. Turkey is a country that has seen four governments pushed from power by the generals in the past 50 years. It is a tradition that the military, and not the government, decides which officers are promoted or dismissed. But this time it is different. While Gen Kosaner's promotion is seen as certain, the military has come under unprecedented pressure to cancel scheduled promotions of 11 generals who have been charged with plotting to bring down the government.

The big question is whether the military leadership will bow to that pressure, thereby accepting that civilian authorities such as the judiciary and the government set limits on what the armed forces can do. The debate about the professional future of the 11 generals reflects the more fundamental issue of the need to strengthen the civilian oversight over the military, a crucial aspect for this EU candidate country.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the prime minister, presided over the Yas meeting and has reportedly called for a cancellation of the promotions for the 11 generals, but he lacks the power to override appointments wanted by the generals. Abdullah Gul, the president, does have that power because Yas decisions become law only after being signed by the president. In the past, no president has dared veto the military's plans.

This time, it could be different, news reports suggested. "Promotion crisis at YAS," the daily Vatan said in a headline yesterday. The pro-government Yeni Safak newspaper reported that Mr Gul had asked Gen Basbug not to go ahead with the promotions, hinting that he would not sign the Yas documents if the 11 generals were promoted. There was no word on how Gen Basbug would react. According to news reports, he complained to the president that the accusations against the officers were part of a smear campaign to discredit the army.

A court in Istanbul recently issued arrest warrants for the generals and 91 other serving and retired officers, with dozens of generals among them. They are to stand trial in December for their suspected participation in a plan, code-named Sledgehammer, that prosecutors said was hatched in 2003 and called for a coup against the religiously conservative government of Mr Erdogan, who is regarded as a dangerous Islamist by many in the strictly secular armed forces.

According to the prosecution, the plotters wanted to bomb a historic mosque in Istanbul and to provoke tensions with Greece in an effort to stir up unrest and prepare the ground for a military coup against Mr Erdogan. Only one of the 102 suspects has been arrested so far. The others have appealed against their arrest warrants. Military officers have been indicted in several cases of suspected coup plots in recent months. Some officers, including retired high-ranking generals, are standing trial as suspected members of Ergenekon, a clandestine network of right-wing activists and military officers who plotted to bring down Mr Erdogan, according to the prosecution. Even one of the officers taking part in the Yas meeting, Gen Saldiray Berk, is a suspect in one of the cases.

Suspected coup plots have dented the military's reputation as an institution that has the country's well-being at heart and have led to an increase of criticism directed against the political role of the armed forces. While the generals see themselves as guardians of the republic's core values such as secularism, critics say they act as a kind of unelected government. "Generals do not only command troops, but lay a claim on commanding Turkey," the columnist Ihsan Dagi wrote yesterday in Today's Zaman, an English-language newspaper that is close to the government. Referring to the debate surrounding the Yas meeting, he added: "If Turkey were a fully functioning democracy, why should we be concerned about a process of bureaucratic appointment?"

Coup accusations are not the only challenge facing Gen Kosaner when he takes over from Gen Basbug at the end of August. Several constitutional amendments designed to further curb the generals' political influence will be put to a referendum on September 12. The military is also struggling to deal with a fresh wave of attacks by Kurdish rebels in south-eastern Anatolia that have killed dozens of soldiers in recent months. Yesterday, railroad officials blamed Kurdish rebels for explosions that derailed eight cars of a train between Divrigi and Erzincan. No one was injured in the attack.

@Email:tseibert@thenational.ae

Election pledges on migration

CDU: "Now is the time to control the German borders and enforce strict border rejections" 

SPD: "Border closures and blanket rejections at internal borders contradict the spirit of a common area of freedom" 

The Orwell Prize for Political Writing

Twelve books were longlisted for The Orwell Prize for Political Writing. The non-fiction works cover various themes from education, gender bias, and the environment to surveillance and political power. Some of the books that made it to the non-fiction longlist include: 

  • Appeasing Hitler: Chamberlain, Churchill and the Road to War by Tim Bouverie
  • Some Kids I Taught and What They Taught Me by Kate Clanchy
  • Invisible Women: Exposing Data Bias in a World Designed for Men by Caroline Criado Perez
  • Follow Me, Akhi: The Online World of British Muslims by Hussein Kesvani
  • Guest House for Young Widows: Among the Women of ISIS by Azadeh Moaveni

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

The White Lotus: Season three

Creator: Mike White

Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell

Rating: 4.5/5

Fixtures
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EWednesday%2C%20April%203%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EArsenal%20v%20Luton%20Town%2C%2010.30pm%20(UAE)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EManchester%20City%20v%20Aston%20Villa%2C%2011.15pm%20(UAE)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EThursday%2C%20April%204%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ELiverpool%20v%20Sheffield%20United%2C%2010.30pm%20(UAE)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A