ISTANBUL // An eruption of violent street protests, the death of seven soldiers yesterday in the north, and a looming ban on Turkey's main Kurdish party are threatening to derail efforts to bring the country's long-running Kurdish conflict to a peaceful end.
Only a few weeks ago, politicians in Ankara said there was a chance to end Turkey's bloodiest conflict within a few months. Now, this aim seems hopelessly optimistic as tensions escalate. A leading Kurdish politician declared that the government's initiative to solve the Kurdish question was "over".
The constitutional court in Ankara is today scheduled to start detailed deliberations about whether or not to ban the Party for a Democratic Society, or DTP, which sees itself as representing Turkey's 12 million Kurds. A court rapporteur has recommended shutting down the party, in a file prepared for the 11 judges, press reports say. At least seven judges have to support a ban for it to take effect. It is not clear when a verdict may be expected.
Many observers expect the court to dissolve the party, which refuses to distance itself from the Kurdistan Workers' Party. The PKK has been fighting Ankara since 1984 in a war for Kurdish autonomy that has cost more than 40,000 lives. In the trial, the DTP, which has 21 deputies in parliament in Ankara, is accused of being a front organisation of the PKK, which itself is regarded as a terrorist organisation by Ankara and the West.
The start of the critical phase of the DTP trial coincides with an escalation of violence, mainly in the Kurdish region in Anatolia, but also in Istanbul and Izmir.
The seven soldiers were on patrol in a mountainous area of Tokat province when they came under fire from militants, the governor told Anatolia news agency.
Last weekend, a 23-year-old student was killed by a bullet to his back during street protests that erupted after a DTP rally in Diyarbakir. Protesters had thrown stones and Molotov cocktails and set off fireworks, while police used tear gas and water cannons to disperse the crowds. A reporter said he heard shots of live ammunition.
The demonstrations were triggered by reports that prison conditions for Abdullah Ocalan, the PKK founder and leader who has been jailed since 1999, have worsened since his transfer into a new cell block on the prison island of Imrali near Istanbul. Ocalan told his lawyers his new cell measured only 6.5 square metres and that he found it hard to get fresh air. He said it was "like being at the bottom of a well".
Ankara denied Ocalan's accusations. The justice ministry said his cell measured 11.81 sq m and that Ocalan was allowed to play table tennis with other inmates who were brought to Imrali to end his solitary confinement after complaints by the Council of Europe.
While tens of thousands of DTP supporters took to the streets, there were also acts of anti-Kurdish violence. Unknown assailants opened fire on party members in a DTP building in Istanbul and attacked a building in Izmir with Molotov cocktails. No one was hurt in either attack. Tensions were further heightened after the death of a 17-year-old girl, badly burnt in an arson attack on a bus in Istanbul blamed on PKK supporters last month.
"For us, the Democratic Opening is over," Emine Ayna, a leading DTP official, said referring to the government plan, which centres on giving Kurds more language rights. The DTP had supported the plan, but now says it falls far short of what is needed.
Ms Ayna told the Radikal newspaper that, given the expectation the DTP would be banned soon, its grassroots were calling on deputies to "take to the mountains" and join the PKK rebels.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the prime minister, said his government would stick with its reforms. Speaking before he left for a visit to Washington, where he was scheduled to meet the US president yesterday, Mr Erdogan said that after his return he would tour the country to explain his plan to voters.
Mr Erdogan said his government was determined to end the PKK's presence in northern Iraq and to dissolve the rebels' headquarters there. "Steps will be taken, whether it will be done within northern Iraq or whether [the PKK leadership] will be sent somewhere else," Mr Erdogan was quoted as saying by the Hurriyet newspaper. Hurriyet reported there were plans to send PKK leaders to Gulf countries.
tseibert@thenational.ae
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AT4 Ultimate, as tested
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.