PARIS // With just two months to go before France elects its next president, Nicolas Sarkozy is grappling with domestic and international obstacles that threaten his chances of winning a second term.
Mr Sarkozy launched a Twitter account yesterday and was due to appear on peak-time television last night in what was billed as the formal launch of his campaign.
Although he knows French voters are likely to decide the election chiefly on domestic issues, a strong weapon in the struggle to confound opinion polls and beat his socialist opponent François Hollande has been his prominent world profile. This contrasts sharply with his rival's inexperience.
But as problems at home continue to mount, most dramatically with the corruption charges levelled against a key former minister last week, the president has found his record on foreign affairs under scrutiny, too.
Despite Greece's reluctant adoption, amid street disturbances, of deep austerity measures as the price of another bailout, financial analysts remain sceptical about the Franco-German plan to save the euro.
Continuing financial instability could turn the promise of the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, to support the Sarkozy campaign into a poisoned chalice. Mr Hollande vows to renegotiate the terms of the deal for which Mr Sarkozy and Mrs Merkel obtained the support of other euro nations.
Mr Sarkozy can claim that after his government's shaky start over Tunisia, he has shown robust leadership on the Arab Spring, notably in his early backing for the revolt that brought down Muammar Qaddafi and in his criticism of Bashar Al Assad's violent response to Syrian protest.
But in other matters concerning events overseas, he has been less successful in impressing voters.
One scandal that refuses to go away concerns a bombing that killed 11 French construction workers in Karachi in 2002. Originally blamed on Al Qaeda, the attack is believed by French investigating magistrates to have been a reprisal for a French decision to halt commissions on arms sales to Pakistan.
Two men close to Mr Sarkozy have been implicated in a judicial investigation into kickbacks. Both deny any connection to money that allegedly helped pay for the unsuccessful 1995 presidential campaign of Edouard Balladur, for whom Mr Sarkozy was spokesman. Last month, the French news magazine Le Nouvel Observateur described the affair as the president's "Achilles' heel".
There has also been a mixed reception to votes in the French parliament, enthusiastically backed by Mr Sarkozy, to introduce criminal sanctions for denying that Turkey committed genocide against Armenians in 1915.
Dissenting senators, alarmed at the implications for freedom of expression, have forced a review by France's constitutional council after Turkey threatened economic and political retaliation. Even the president's foreign minister, Alain Juppé, described the law as "inappropriate".
Mr Sarkozy's critics accuse him of running a high-risk strategy to appeal to voters tempted by the simplistic message of the Front Nationalist leader Marine Le Pen, generally seen as anti-Islam.
In an interview with Le Figaro's magazine, Mr Sarkozy spoke of plans for a referendum to speed the process for expelling illegal immigrants and toughen rules for the unemployed. To his opponents, all this reflects a desire to show a hard line on immigration and Muslim issues.
Ms Le Pen trails both Mr Sarkozy and Mr Hollande in opinion polls, although her support, measured at up to 20 per cent, could be critical in a May run-off between the two first-round leaders.
But Mr Sarkozy cannot place great reliance on her supporters switching allegiance to him once she has been eliminated. A survey by the Harris Interactive polling institute put Mr Hollande on 28 points, four ahead of Mr Sarkozy, for the April 22 first round, but reinforces the findings of a separate poll suggesting the gap would widen if they faced each other in the decider.
Following France's humiliating loss of its triple A credit rating last month, Mr Sarkozy and supporters have poured scorn on the "tax and spend" policies of Mr Hollande.
The budget minister, Valerie Pécresse, said the absence of a single word on spending restraint meant the socialists were "putting the credibility of France in peril".
But the president desperately needs some good news, especially on the home economic front, as polling day approaches.
The last thing he needed was this week's decision by judges to charge Eric Woerth, his former budget minister and treasurer of Mr Sarkozy's centre-right UMP party, with using improper influence to secure France's highest award, the Legion of Honour, for the financial adviser of Liliane Bettencourt, France's richest woman.
The adviser, Patrice de Maistre, is alleged to have helped Mr Woerth's wife obtain a job managing the heiress's fortune.
The judges followed this action by charging Mr Woerth with accepting illegal cash donations from Mr de Maistre, originating from Mrs Bettencourt.
Mr Sarkozy is immune from prosecution while in office and, in any case, vehemently denies wrongdoing, as does Mr Woerth.
foreign.desk@thenational.ae
* Additional reporting by Agence France-Presse
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
Meatless Days
Sara Suleri, with an introduction by Kamila Shamsie
Penguin
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UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
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