Floodwaters overflow the banks of the Seine river near the Eiffel Tower in Paris. Etienne Laurent / EPA

Paris on high alert for floods as river Seine continues to swell



Paris was on high alert for flooding on Saturday as the swollen Seine continued to creep higher, with forecasters warning the river could stay high throughout next week.

Leaks started to appear in some basements on Friday, while some residents on the city's outskirts were forced to travel by boat through waterlogged streets.

The Louvre, Musee d'Orsay and Orangerie museums were on high alert, with the lower level of the Louvre's Islamic arts wing closed to visitors.

A health centre in the northwestern Parisian suburbs, where 86 patients were receiving care, had to be evacuated on Friday.

Over 650 people were also evacuated from their homes in the Paris region, according to police.

The Vigicrues flooding agency scaled back its peak predictions for the river in the capital, saying water levels would reach a maximum height of 5.8 to 6 metres between Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning, compared with the 6.2 metres it had previously predicted.

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But that would still bring the Seine four to five metres above its normal height, causing headaches for commuters as well as people living near its overflowing banks.

It was enough to worry Joao de Macedo, the janitor of a residential building in Paris's upscale 16th Arrondissement.

"There are six studios in the basement, and we've had to set up blocks outside to keep the windows from breaking and covering everything in water," he said.

Inside the studios, tables and dressers had been lifted off the floor as water seeped through the walls.

Outside, where the river was nearly lapping the tyres of parked vehicles, a young woman said it was "great to see ducks instead of cars".

The December-January period is now the third-wettest on record since data collection began in 1900, according to France's meteorological service.

All boat traffic on the Seine in Paris and upstream had been stopped, keeping tourists off the capital's famed sightseeing boats.

But forecasters said the rainfall in recent days had not been enough to push the Seine beyond their expectations.

"We've been reassured, it will keep the water level high but not increase it," said Francois Duquesne of the Vigicrues floods agency, though he warned of the risk for more rain next week.

"If it rains again from the middle of next week, something I'm not sure of at this point, we're not necessarily done with this yet," said Marc Mortureux, risk prevention director at the French environment ministry.

But even once the water levels start to recede, forecasters say it will be a slow process, since much of the ground in northern France is already waterlogged.

A main commuter line, the RER C, has halted service at Paris stops through Wednesday of next week, and some expressways that run alongside the Seine have been closed.

In Paris, the Seine flows through a deep channel, limiting the potential flooding damage to riverside structures.

But several areas on the outskirts of the capital were under water on Saturday, such as the southern suburb of Villeneuve-Saint-Georges, where some residents were getting around by boat and dozens had been evacuated from their homes.

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

Generational responses to the pandemic

Devesh Mamtani from Century Financial believes the cash-hoarding tendency of each generation is influenced by what stage of the employment cycle they are in. He offers the following insights:

Baby boomers (those born before 1964): Owing to market uncertainty and the need to survive amid competition, many in this generation are looking for options to hoard more cash and increase their overall savings/investments towards risk-free assets.

Generation X (born between 1965 and 1980): Gen X is currently in its prime working years. With their personal and family finances taking a hit, Generation X is looking at multiple options, including taking out short-term loan facilities with competitive interest rates instead of dipping into their savings account.

Millennials (born between 1981 and 1996): This market situation is giving them a valuable lesson about investing early. Many millennials who had previously not saved or invested are looking to start doing so now.