The number of people admitted to hospital or dying from Covid-19 in the UK has been slashed by thousands after ministers delayed the date for lifting restrictions, according to a study.
The modelling, completed by Warwick University and presented to the government’s scientific advisers, also showed vaccines were more effective than thought.
Modellers projected a peak of about 3,000 new hospital admissions per day if ministers went ahead with ending social distancing restrictions on June 21.
That figure has been revised down to a peak of about 1,000 per day after a four-week delay was imposed.
The worst-case projection was based on the assumption that two doses of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine provided between 85 per cent and 90 per cent protection against the Indian variant, while two doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech drug provided between 87 per cent and 91 per cent protection.
According to Public Health England data, two doses of AstraZeneca's vaccine is 92 per cent effective against severe illness, while Pfizer's vaccine is 96 per cent effective.
Prof Andrew Pollard, head of the Oxford Vaccine Group, said the PHE research was “incredibly good news for the months ahead”.
However, it is essential people receive both doses of the vaccine, because one dose provides only about 33 per cent protection.
The PHE research is based on real-world cases and raises the prospect that Prime Minister Boris Johnson can proceed with a full lifting of restrictions on July 19.
The government promised to vaccinate up to 10 million more people during the four-week period.
Separate research by Imperial College London found that case numbers continue to grow across England but the increase is being driven by younger people who are not yet vaccinated.
The R number – the number of people an infected person goes on to infect – was an estimated 1.44.
Of the 108,911 people tested for the study between May 20 and June 7, 135 were positive, about one in 670. This is a 50 per cent increase compared with the study's May 3 findings, when one in 1,000 had the virus.
Prof Paul Elliot, director of the React-1 study, said the distribution of vaccines to younger age groups was key to reducing the spread of the virus.
"We can take quite a lot of comfort from the fact that when we look in the details, it does appear that there is very, very good protection in the older ages, where virtually everyone is double vaccinated," he said.
"The government has clearly announced that they want to vaccinate all adults in the period between now and 19 July .
"That will make a very big difference and increase the total amount of population immunity."
The biog
Full name: Aisha Abdulqader Saeed
Age: 34
Emirate: Dubai
Favourite quote: "No one has ever become poor by giving"
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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SPEC SHEET
Display: 6.8" edge quad-HD dynamic Amoled 2X, Infinity-O, 3088 x 1440, 500ppi, HDR10 , 120Hz
Processor: 4nm Snapdragon 8 Gen 1/Exynos 2200, 8-core
Memory: 8/12GB RAM
Storage: 128/256/512GB/1TB
Platform: Android 12
Main camera: quad 12MP ultra-wide f/2.2, 108MP wide f/1.8, 10MP telephoto f/4.9, 10MP telephoto 2.4; Space Zoom up to 100x, auto HDR, expert RAW
Video: 8K@24fps, 4K@60fps, full-HD@60fps, HD@30fps, super slo-mo@960fps
Front camera: 40MP f/2.2
Battery: 5000mAh, fast wireless charging 2.0 Wireless PowerShare
Connectivity: 5G, Wi-Fi, Bluetooth 5.2, NFC
I/O: USB-C
SIM: single nano, or nano and SIM, nano and nano, eSIM/nano and nano
Colours: burgundy, green, phantom black, phantom white, graphite, sky blue, red
Price: Dh4,699 for 128GB, Dh5,099 for 256GB, Dh5,499 for 512GB; 1TB unavailable in the UAE
The National in Davos
We are bringing you the inside story from the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting in Davos, a gathering of hundreds of world leaders, top executives and billionaires.
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Tonight's Chat on The National
Tonight's Chat is a series of online conversations on The National. The series features a diverse range of celebrities, politicians and business leaders from around the Arab world.
Tonight’s Chat host Ricardo Karam is a renowned author and broadcaster with a decades-long career in TV. He has previously interviewed Bill Gates, Carlos Ghosn, Andre Agassi and the late Zaha Hadid, among others. Karam is also the founder of Takreem.
Intellectually curious and thought-provoking, Tonight’s Chat moves the conversation forward.
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
Company name: Play:Date
Launched: March 2017 on UAE Mother’s Day
Founder: Shamim Kassibawi
Based: Dubai with operations in the UAE and US
Sector: Tech
Size: 20 employees
Stage of funding: Seed
Investors: Three founders (two silent co-founders) and one venture capital fund
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
If you go
Flight connections to Ulaanbaatar are available through a variety of hubs, including Seoul and Beijing, with airlines including Mongolian Airlines and Korean Air. While some nationalities, such as Americans, don’t need a tourist visa for Mongolia, others, including UAE citizens, can obtain a visa on arrival, while others including UK citizens, need to obtain a visa in advance. Contact the Mongolian Embassy in the UAE for more information.
Nomadic Road offers expedition-style trips to Mongolia in January and August, and other destinations during most other months. Its nine-day August 2020 Mongolia trip will cost from $5,250 per person based on two sharing, including airport transfers, two nights’ hotel accommodation in Ulaanbaatar, vehicle rental, fuel, third party vehicle liability insurance, the services of a guide and support team, accommodation, food and entrance fees; nomadicroad.com
A fully guided three-day, two-night itinerary at Three Camel Lodge costs from $2,420 per person based on two sharing, including airport transfers, accommodation, meals and excursions including the Yol Valley and Flaming Cliffs. A return internal flight from Ulaanbaatar to Dalanzadgad costs $300 per person and the flight takes 90 minutes each way; threecamellodge.com
Global Fungi Facts
• Scientists estimate there could be as many as 3 million fungal species globally
• Only about 160,000 have been officially described leaving around 90% undiscovered
• Fungi account for roughly 90% of Earth's unknown biodiversity
• Forest fungi help tackle climate change, absorbing up to 36% of global fossil fuel emissions annually and storing around 5 billion tonnes of carbon in the planet's topsoil
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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The specs: Audi e-tron
Price, base: From Dh325,000 (estimate)
Engine: Twin electric motors and 95kWh battery pack
Transmission: Single-speed auto
Power: 408hp
Torque: 664Nm
Range: 400 kilometres
