The British economy will be worse off whatever deal is struck with the European Union, a leaked government report suggested.
The analysis, drawn up for the Brexit department and seen by the BuzzFeed News website, showed that growth would be lower under all of the three most likely scenarios
Under the “hardest” Brexit, in which the UK leaves with no deal and falls back on World Trade Organisation rules, economic growth would be up to 8 per cent lower in 15 years’ time than if it remained in the EU.
Under a comprehensive free trade agreement with the European Union, growth would be 5 per cent lower than otherwise.
Even if Britain retains single-market access through membership of the European Economic Area, growth would be 2 per cent lower over the same period.
Importantly, all of the growth declines are relative and over a long period of time. The study suggests there would be less growth than if the UK had stayed in the EU, rather than saying the UK economy will actually be smaller in 15 years’ time than it is now.
Nevertheless, the leak is likely to further inflame the debate over Brexit within the Cabinet and offer more ammunition to those calling for a second referendum.
_______________
Read more:
EU to offer UK ‘status quo' transition period without voting rights after Brexit
UK ministers move to reassure businesses on Brexit
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It also brings little respite for Prime Minister Theresa May as she set off to China for a three-day trade mission, amid continued infighting and question marks over her leadership.
The study, entitled EU Exit Analysis, was intended to be shown to ministers in a series of secretive one-to-one briefings, and kept out of the public domain.
When asked why the analysis was being so jealously guarded, a government source told Buzzfeed: "Because it's embarrassing".
The document showed how almost every sector of the economy would be affected by all the three scenarios, with chemicals, clothing, manufacturing, food and drink, cars and retail the hardest hit.
It also showed how every region of the country would be damaged, with North East England, the West Midlands and Northern Ireland being hardest hit.
Quizzed about it in Parliament on Tuesday afternoon, Brexit minister Steve Baker slammed the leak as “an attempt to undermine our exit from the EU”.
He added that the analysis did not "consider the desired outcome" of the government – namely a bespoke free trade agreement.
But Labour's shadow Brexit secretary Keir Starmer argued that that explanation was "not good enough", adding that the government was "piling absurdity upon absurdity."
Opposition MPs also grilled the government as to why, until recently, it had insisted that no impact assessments had been undertaken. One, Chris Leslie, criticised the government for "a cover up".
Speaking to The National, Adrian McMenamin, from the pro-Remain Open Britain group, urged the government to make its assessment public.
“They’ve repeatedly claimed this sort of analysis doesn’t exist, but yet here it is being leaked,” Mr McMenamin said. “There’s now a duty on the government to publish the analysis in full. What we can’t have is an open and honest debate on the impact of Brexit when they are hiding information from the people of Britain.”
_______________
Read more:
British economy picked up at end of tough 2017
Shape of post-Brexit Britain to become clearer in 2018
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Earlier in the day, furious Eurosceptic MPs had been quick to dismiss the report.
Leading leave campaigner Iain Duncan Smith saying it had been “deliberately leaked”.
Speaking to the BBC, Mr Duncan Smith said: "The timing of this is highly suspicious.
"The fact you have a leaked document in the middle of an unfortunate and pointless row going on about whether or not we are going to have the right deal, whether Theresa May is doing the right thing... I find it highly suspicious."
Jonathan Isaby, Editor of BrexitCentral, added that previous modelling of this sort had been proven inaccurate.
A similar impact assessment published by the Treasury ahead of the EU Referendum, dubbed “Project Fear” by Brexit backers, predicted wide scale redundancies and economic gloom if the UK voted to leave. The latest forecasts are slightly better than those, in part because all the scenarios assume a new trade deal with the US.
"The Treasury has always taken a deeply hostile attitude to Brexit," Mr Isaby told The National. "They have shown themselves time and time again to be hopeless at economic forecasting."
“And without knowing what the arrangements are that the UK will have with the EU as we leave, there is no way of being able to make these forecasts anyway.”
The leak goes to the heart of the debate within government between those who support maximum distance from the EU, and those who want to stay close.
Last week, hardline Eurosceptics attacked Chancellor Philip Hammond for saying he anticipated only “modest changes” to the UK’s relationship with the EU after it leaves the bloc.
International Trade Secretary Liam Fox stepped into the debate on Monday by apparently telling fellow Eurosceptics that they are “going to have to live with disappointment” and accept a softer Brexit.
Mrs May’s inability to unite the Leave and Remain wings of her party has revived questions about her leadership, which first surfaced after last year’s general election in which she lost her parliamentary majority.
Around a dozen Conservatives have cast doubt in recent days about the stability of her position, with a number suggesting she could be replaced once a Brexit deal is concluded.
Speaking at an event for the Resolution Foundation thinktank, prominent backbencher Johnny Mercer said that the time was not right for a leadership contest, but that Mrs May’s time could be running out.
“How long has the prime minister got? I am of the view that any sort of change in leadership is not helpful at the moment and I don’t support that, but I do think the window is closing because politics can be quite a brutal game,” he said.
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
Britain's travel restrictions
- A negative test 2 days before flying
- Complete passenger locator form
- Book a post-arrival PCR test
- Double-vaccinated must self-isolate
- 11 countries on red list quarantine
Company%20profile
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Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
MATCH INFO
What: 2006 World Cup quarter-final
When: July 1
Where: Gelsenkirchen Stadium, Gelsenkirchen, Germany
Result:
England 0 Portugal 0
(Portugal win 3-1 on penalties)
Profile of Hala Insurance
Date Started: September 2018
Founders: Walid and Karim Dib
Based: Abu Dhabi
Employees: Nine
Amount raised: $1.2 million
Funders: Oman Technology Fund, AB Accelerator, 500 Startups, private backers
Asia Cup Qualifier
Venue: Kuala Lumpur
Result: Winners play at Asia Cup in Dubai and Abu Dhabi in September
Fixtures:
Wed Aug 29: Malaysia v Hong Kong, Nepal v Oman, UAE v Singapore
Thu Aug 30: UAE v Nepal, Hong Kong v Singapore, Malaysia v Oman
Sat Sep 1: UAE v Hong Kong, Oman v Singapore, Malaysia v Nepal
Sun Sep 2: Hong Kong v Oman, Malaysia v UAE, Nepal v Singapore
Tue Sep 4: Malaysia v Singapore, UAE v Oman, Nepal v Hong Kong
Thu Sep 6: Final
Asia Cup
Venue: Dubai and Abu Dhabi
Schedule: Sep 15-28
Teams: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, plus the winner of the Qualifier
Cry Macho
Director: Clint Eastwood
Stars: Clint Eastwood, Dwight Yoakam
Rating:**
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4-litre%20twin-turbo%20V8%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%208-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E470hp%2C%20338kW%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20620Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20From%20Dh491%2C500%20(estimate)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Enow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
How Tesla’s price correction has hit fund managers
Investing in disruptive technology can be a bumpy ride, as investors in Tesla were reminded on Friday, when its stock dropped 7.5 per cent in early trading to $575.
It recovered slightly but still ended the week 15 per cent lower and is down a third from its all-time high of $883 on January 26. The electric car maker’s market cap fell from $834 billion to about $567bn in that time, a drop of an astonishing $267bn, and a blow for those who bought Tesla stock late.
The collapse also hit fund managers that have gone big on Tesla, notably the UK-based Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust and Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF.
Tesla is the top holding in both funds, making up a hefty 10 per cent of total assets under management. Both funds have fallen by a quarter in the past month.
Matt Weller, global head of market research at GAIN Capital, recently warned that Tesla founder Elon Musk had “flown a bit too close to the sun”, after getting carried away by investing $1.5bn of the company’s money in Bitcoin.
He also predicted Tesla’s sales could struggle as traditional auto manufacturers ramp up electric car production, destroying its first mover advantage.
AJ Bell’s Russ Mould warns that many investors buy tech stocks when earnings forecasts are rising, almost regardless of valuation. “When it works, it really works. But when it goes wrong, elevated valuations leave little or no downside protection.”
A Tesla correction was probably baked in after last year’s astonishing share price surge, and many investors will see this as an opportunity to load up at a reduced price.
Dramatic swings are to be expected when investing in disruptive technology, as Ms Wood at ARK makes clear.
Every week, she sends subscribers a commentary listing “stocks in our strategies that have appreciated or dropped more than 15 per cent in a day” during the week.
Her latest commentary, issued on Friday, showed seven stocks displaying extreme volatility, led by ExOne, a leader in binder jetting 3D printing technology. It jumped 24 per cent, boosted by news that fellow 3D printing specialist Stratasys had beaten fourth-quarter revenues and earnings expectations, seen as good news for the sector.
By contrast, computational drug and material discovery company Schrödinger fell 27 per cent after quarterly and full-year results showed its core software sales and drug development pipeline slowing.
Despite that setback, Ms Wood remains positive, arguing that its “medicinal chemistry platform offers a powerful and unique view into chemical space”.
In her weekly video view, she remains bullish, stating that: “We are on the right side of change, and disruptive innovation is going to deliver exponential growth trajectories for many of our companies, in fact, most of them.”
Ms Wood remains committed to Tesla as she expects global electric car sales to compound at an average annual rate of 82 per cent for the next five years.
She said these are so “enormous that some people find them unbelievable”, and argues that this scepticism, especially among institutional investors, “festers” and creates a great opportunity for ARK.
Only you can decide whether you are a believer or a festering sceptic. If it’s the former, then buckle up.
MORE FROM CON COUGHLIN
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Teachers' pay - what you need to know
Pay varies significantly depending on the school, its rating and the curriculum. Here's a rough guide as of January 2021:
- top end schools tend to pay Dh16,000-17,000 a month - plus a monthly housing allowance of up to Dh6,000. These tend to be British curriculum schools rated 'outstanding' or 'very good', followed by American schools
- average salary across curriculums and skill levels is about Dh10,000, recruiters say
- it is becoming more common for schools to provide accommodation, sometimes in an apartment block with other teachers, rather than hand teachers a cash housing allowance
- some strong performing schools have cut back on salaries since the pandemic began, sometimes offering Dh16,000 including the housing allowance, which reflects the slump in rental costs, and sheer demand for jobs
- maths and science teachers are most in demand and some schools will pay up to Dh3,000 more than other teachers in recognition of their technical skills
- at the other end of the market, teachers in some Indian schools, where fees are lower and competition among applicants is intense, can be paid as low as Dh3,000 per month
- in Indian schools, it has also become common for teachers to share residential accommodation, living in a block with colleagues
The specs
Price, base / as tested Dh135,000
Engine 1.6L turbo
Gearbox Six speed automatic with manual and sports mode
Power 165hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque 240Nm @ 1,400rpm 0-100kph: 9.2 seconds
Top speed 420 kph (governed)
Fuel economy, combined 35.2L / 100km (est)
ELIO
Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett
Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina
Rating: 4/5
The%20specs
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Mubadala World Tennis Championship 2018 schedule
Thursday December 27
Men's quarter-finals
Kevin Anderson v Hyeon Chung 4pm
Dominic Thiem v Karen Khachanov 6pm
Women's exhibition
Serena Williams v Venus Williams 8pm
Friday December 28
5th place play-off 3pm
Men's semi-finals
Rafael Nadal v Anderson/Chung 5pm
Novak Djokovic v Thiem/Khachanov 7pm
Saturday December 29
3rd place play-off 5pm
Men's final 7pm
8 traditional Jamaican dishes to try at Kingston 21
- Trench Town Rock: Jamaican-style curry goat served in a pastry basket with a carrot and potato garnish
- Rock Steady Jerk Chicken: chicken marinated for 24 hours and slow-cooked on the grill
- Mento Oxtail: flavoured oxtail stewed for five hours with herbs
- Ackee and salt fish: the national dish of Jamaica makes for a hearty breakfast
- Jamaican porridge: another breakfast favourite, can be made with peanut, cornmeal, banana and plantain
- Jamaican beef patty: a pastry with ground beef filling
- Hellshire Pon di Beach: Fresh fish with pickles
- Out of Many: traditional sweet potato pudding
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
MATCH INFO
Tottenham Hotspur 3 (Son 1', Kane 8' & 16') West Ham United 3 (Balbuena 82', Sanchez og 85', Lanzini 90' 4)
Man of the match Harry Kane
WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
