Iranian-led efforts to upgrade Hezbollah’s missile arsenal in Lebanon represents the most dangerous regional flashpoint that could trigger an Israeli counter-strike, according to UK defence think-tank RUSI.
The smuggling of precision-guided missile systems into Lebanon represents the most “serious risk” of starting a major war with Iran that could involve the United States, according to new research by the group published on Thursday.
The report comes as the Iranian leadership said its relations with the United States had rarely been so bad and the US warned against of Hezbollah’s growing role in the new Lebanese cabinet.
Despite its relatively weak financial and military standing, Iran’s continued belligerence towards Israel threatens potential war through “miscalculation or a deliberate choice”, said the research paper.
“Iran’s bid to add guidance systems onto Hezbollah’s missile arsenal poses a serious threat to Israeli airfields and critical national infrastructure,” according to the report “Iran’s objectives and capabilities: Deterrence and Subversion”.
“If this threat continues to expand, Israel may feel that it has no choice but to strike. Such a conflict is far from inevitable but policymakers need to work to reduce the risks of escalation.”
The paper highlighted other potential flashpoints that could include clashes between rival Iran and US-backed forces in Iraq, Iran’s nuclear ambitions and Yemen.
The report said Iran’s military strategy has been based on deterring attacks against the clerical regime by building increasingly accurate rocket and ballistic missile technology based in Iran and Lebanon.
In the event of war, they would be used to attack US bases in the Gulf and critical national infrastructure in Israel. In addition, forces backed by Tehran in Iraq and its navy would be used to harry and delay the build-up of US forces.
“The strategic objective of Iranian security policy is to make the cost of a war with Iran so high that diplomacy will always appear preferable,” concluded the report by RUSI research fellow Dr Jack Watling.
Washington and Tehran have been entrenched foes since the 1979 revolution but tensions have increased since President Donald Trump pulled out of a deal last year that was aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
In a sign of the growing animosity, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said on Wednesday that the sanctions re-imposed by the US and targeting its oil and banking sectors amounted to a “terrorist act”.
“The struggle between Iran and America is currently at a maximum,” he was quoted as saying in a cabinet meeting by state broadcaster IRIB. “America has employed all its power against us.
“The US pressures on firms and banks to halt business with Iran is one hundred per cent a terrorist act.”
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THE CLOWN OF GAZA
Director: Abdulrahman Sabbah
Starring: Alaa Meqdad
Rating: 4/5
If you go
Flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh with a stop in Yangon from Dh3,075, and Etihad flies from Abu Dhabi to Phnom Penh with its partner Bangkok Airlines from Dh2,763. These trips take about nine hours each and both include taxes. From there, a road transfer takes at least four hours; airlines including KC Airlines (www.kcairlines.com) offer quick connecting flights from Phnom Penh to Sihanoukville from about $100 (Dh367) return including taxes. Air Asia, Malindo Air and Malaysian Airlines fly direct from Kuala Lumpur to Sihanoukville from $54 each way. Next year, direct flights are due to launch between Bangkok and Sihanoukville, which will cut the journey time by a third.
The stay
Rooms at Alila Villas Koh Russey (www.alilahotels.com/ kohrussey) cost from $385 per night including taxes.
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
Result:
1. Cecilie Hatteland (NOR) atop Alex - 31.46 seconds
2. Anna Gorbacheva (RUS) atop Curt 13 - 31.82 seconds
3. Georgia Tame (GBR) atop Cash Up - 32.81 seconds
4. Sheikha Latifa bint Ahmed Al Maktoum (UAE) atop Peanuts de Beaufour - 35.85 seconds
5. Miriam Schneider (GER) atop Benur du Romet - 37.53 seconds
6. Annika Sande (NOR) atop For Cash 2 - 31.42 seconds (4 penalties)
Zayed Sustainability Prize
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FROM%20THE%20ASHES
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Khalid%20Fahad%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%20Shaima%20Al%20Tayeb%2C%20Wafa%20Muhamad%2C%20Hamss%20Bandar%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
More coverage from the Future Forum
Company Fact Box
Company name/date started: Abwaab Technologies / September 2019
Founders: Hamdi Tabbaa, co-founder and CEO. Hussein Alsarabi, co-founder and CTO
Based: Amman, Jordan
Sector: Education Technology
Size (employees/revenue): Total team size: 65. Full-time employees: 25. Revenue undisclosed
Stage: early-stage startup
Investors: Adam Tech Ventures, Endure Capital, Equitrust, the World Bank-backed Innovative Startups SMEs Fund, a London investment fund, a number of former and current executives from Uber and Netflix, among others.
Results
2.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 1,700m; Winner: AF Mezmar, Adam McLean (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer).
3pm: Maiden (PA) Dh40,000 2,000m; Winner: AF Ajwad, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel.
3.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 1,200m; Winner: Gold Silver, Sam Hitchcott, Ibrahim Aseel.
4pm: Maiden (PA) Dh40,000 1,000m; Winner: Atrash, Richard Mullen, Ana Mendez.
4.30pm: Gulf Cup Prestige (PA) Dh150,000 1,700m; Winner: AF Momtaz, Saif Al Balushi, Musabah Al Muhairi.
5pm: Handicap (TB) Dh40,000 1,200m; Winner: Al Mushtashar, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Evacuations to France hit by controversy
- Over 500 Gazans have been evacuated to France since November 2023
- Evacuations were paused after a student already in France posted anti-Semitic content and was subsequently expelled to Qatar
- The Foreign Ministry launched a review to determine how authorities failed to detect the posts before her entry
- Artists and researchers fall under a programme called Pause that began in 2017
- It has benefited more than 700 people from 44 countries, including Syria, Turkey, Iran, and Sudan
- Since the start of the Gaza war, it has also included 45 Gazan beneficiaries
- Unlike students, they are allowed to bring their families to France
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Farage on Muslim Brotherhood
Nigel Farage told Reform's annual conference that the party will proscribe the Muslim Brotherhood if he becomes Prime Minister.
"We will stop dangerous organisations with links to terrorism operating in our country," he said. "Quite why we've been so gutless about this – both Labour and Conservative – I don't know.
“All across the Middle East, countries have banned and proscribed the Muslim Brotherhood as a dangerous organisation. We will do the very same.”
It is 10 years since a ground-breaking report into the Muslim Brotherhood by Sir John Jenkins.
Among the former diplomat's findings was an assessment that “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” has “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
The prime minister at the time, David Cameron, who commissioned the report, said membership or association with the Muslim Brotherhood was a "possible indicator of extremism" but it would not be banned.
More on animal trafficking
What to watch out for:
Algae, waste coffee grounds and orange peels will be used in the pavilion's walls and gangways
The hulls of three ships will be used for the roof
The hulls will painted to make the largest Italian tricolour in the country’s history
Several pillars more than 20 metres high will support the structure
Roughly 15 tonnes of steel will be used
BELGIUM%20SQUAD
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