Vaccine supply issues caused by India's alarming second wave of Covid-19 could have "huge repercussions" because the world is so reliant on imports from the subcontinent, an expert said.
Dr Sarah Schiffling, a vaccine supply chain expert at Liverpool John Moores University, said the world faced a “scramble for some time to come” as the crisis limits production capacity and India reserves more shots for itself.
She told The National her biggest worry was the potential effect on the global Covax scheme which is distributing shots to developing countries.
Covax had expected to receive more than 100 million doses from the Serum Institute of India between February and May, but has so far received only about 18.2m.
Vaccine shipments to Britain were also delayed last month because of hold-ups in India and the virus situation has worsened significantly since then.
Britain on Monday added India to its travel-ban red list because of the rampant surge in cases and fears over a new variant of Covid-19 which has already been detected in the UK.
Scientists in Britain are now examining whether the new variant is more contagious than others and whether it is able to evade vaccines or antibodies.
Why is India on Britain's travel red list?
India’s infection rate reached a new high on Tuesday with the seven-day average reaching 233,000 new cases per day.
The figure has risen by about 275 per cent since the start of April.
More than 1.6 million new cases were recorded in the past week alone, along with nearly 9,500 deaths.
When adjusted for population, India’s infection rate is still lower than in some European countries, such as France and Germany.
However, UK authorities said there was a heightened risk of importing the “Indian variant” of Covid-19.
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson was forced to cancel a visit to India which had already been postponed and then truncated because of the pandemic.
The travel ban will take effect at 4am London time on Friday.
British and Irish citizens and people with residency rights in the UK will have to stay in quarantine hotels if they arrive in the UK from India.
Overseas visitors with no residency rights will not be allowed to enter Britain if they have been in India in the previous 10 days.
What is the variant that is worrying the UK government?
Known as B.1.617, the variant was first detected in India and most of the cases picked up in Britain are linked to international travel.
There have been 77 confirmed cases in the UK, of which 73 were in England and four in Scotland.
It has also been detected in 19 other countries including the United States, with the earliest samples dating back to October.
We only have a tiny window into which variants are becoming the most common
Scientists were on Tuesday still assessing whether the strain is more transmissible than other variants or potentially resistant to vaccines.
This means it has the status of a “variant under investigation” rather than a “variant of concern”.
Dr Jeffrey Barrett, the director of the Covid-19 genomics initiative at the Wellcome Sanger Institute, said the variant had “a couple of potentially concerning mutations”.
He said they were probably not as serious as some of the mutations seen in the UK, Brazilian and South African variants of Covid-19.
“This could be because we have had less time to study them, so these mutations should be watched carefully,” he said.
It is not clear whether the new variant is driving the second wave of infections in India.
“It is certainly possible that there is a cause-and-effect relationship but there have only been about 1,000 sequences published from India out of about four million cases in this wave so far,” Dr Barrett said.
“So we only have a tiny window into which variants are becoming the most common and it’s not clear if they are fully representative.”
What does this mean for global vaccine supplies?
India is the world’s biggest vaccine manufacturer and is sometimes described as the “pharmacy to the world”.
However, the world’s reliance on India means that global supplies are vulnerable to being delayed, Dr Schiffling said.
“There’s been a lot of reliance, particularly in Western countries, to say that we’re just going to import from India, making use of those vast production capacities that other countries just do not have,” she said.
“If you are producing these vaccines and you’ve got an urgent need for them, then obviously it’s very difficult to communicate that we’re just exporting them to countries that are less affected at the moment.
“Basically it comes down to – we have mass demand, but we currently do not have the production capacity to fulfil that demand any time soon.
“So it’s going to be a scramble for some time to come.”
Dr Schiffling warned that manufacturing problems could affect not only vaccine makers but also the supply of essential items such as glass vials and biological compounds.
“It just comes down to pure capacity,” she said.
“There’s not enough to go around in the first place, so every little hiccup in the production and every change in terms of exporting – or not exporting, in the case of India now – has huge repercussions for worldwide vaccination programmes.”
Dr Schiffling said the UK’s travel restrictions should not have a major effect because the rules for individuals were different from those for exporters.
However, said her biggest concern was about supplies to the Covax scheme, which she said was largely reliant on exports from India.
Covax is holding talks with the Indian government for the Serum Institute to resume supplies of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine.
"These are countries that already are being forecast, many of them, to not have a decent vaccination rate for years to come,” Dr Schiffling said.
“So delays to that will have much larger knock-on effects than delays to the UK, the EU or other countries like that.”
More on Covid-19 vaccinations
One in a million: The truth about blood clots and vaccines
All the countries that are open to vaccinated travellers
Denmark's AstraZeneca ban could lead to 'a lot of dead people'
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Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Company%20Profile
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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Company profile
Name: GiftBag.ae
Based: Dubai
Founded: 2011
Number of employees: 4
Sector: E-commerce
Funding: Self-funded to date
'Worse than a prison sentence'
Marie Byrne, a counsellor who volunteers at the UAE government's mental health crisis helpline, said the ordeal the crew had been through would take time to overcome.
“It was worse than a prison sentence, where at least someone can deal with a set amount of time incarcerated," she said.
“They were living in perpetual mystery as to how their futures would pan out, and what that would be.
“Because of coronavirus, the world is very different now to the one they left, that will also have an impact.
“It will not fully register until they are on dry land. Some have not seen their young children grow up while others will have to rebuild relationships.
“It will be a challenge mentally, and to find other work to support their families as they have been out of circulation for so long. Hopefully they will get the care they need when they get home.”
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
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The specs
Engine: Direct injection 4-cylinder 1.4-litre
Power: 150hp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: From Dh139,000
On sale: Now
House-hunting
Top 10 locations for inquiries from US house hunters, according to Rightmove
- Edinburgh, Scotland
- Westminster, London
- Camden, London
- Glasgow, Scotland
- Islington, London
- Kensington and Chelsea, London
- Highlands, Scotland
- Argyll and Bute, Scotland
- Fife, Scotland
- Tower Hamlets, London
'The Batman'
Stars:Robert Pattinson
Director:Matt Reeves
Rating: 5/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
RESULT
Bayern Munich 3 Chelsea 2
Bayern: Rafinha (6'), Muller (12', 27')
Chelsea: Alonso (45' 3), Batshuayi (85')
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
Generation Start-up: Awok company profile
Started: 2013
Founder: Ulugbek Yuldashev
Sector: e-commerce
Size: 600 plus
Stage: still in talks with VCs
Principal Investors: self-financed by founder
It’ll be summer in the city as car show tries to move with the times
If 2008 was the year that rocked Detroit, 2019 will be when Motor City gives its annual car extravaganza a revamp that aims to move with the times.
A major change is that this week's North American International Auto Show will be the last to be held in January, after which the event will switch to June.
The new date, organisers said, will allow exhibitors to move vehicles and activities outside the Cobo Center's halls and into other city venues, unencumbered by cold January weather, exemplified this week by snow and ice.
In a market in which trends can easily be outpaced beyond one event, the need to do so was probably exacerbated by the decision of Germany's big three carmakers – BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Audi – to skip the auto show this year.
The show has long allowed car enthusiasts to sit behind the wheel of the latest models at the start of the calendar year but a more fluid car market in an online world has made sales less seasonal.
Similarly, everyday technology seems to be catching up on those whose job it is to get behind microphones and try and tempt the visiting public into making a purchase.
Although sparkly announcers clasp iPads and outline the technical gadgetry hidden beneath bonnets, people's obsession with their own smartphones often appeared to offer a more tempting distraction.
“It's maddening,” said one such worker at Nissan's stand.
The absence of some pizzazz, as well as top marques, was also noted by patrons.
“It looks like there are a few less cars this year,” one annual attendee said of this year's exhibitors.
“I can't help but think it's easier to stay at home than to brave the snow and come here.”
Gothia Cup 2025
4,872 matches
1,942 teams
116 pitches
76 nations
26 UAE teams
15 Lebanese teams
2 Kuwaiti teams
Profile Idealz
Company: Idealz
Founded: January 2018
Based: Dubai
Sector: E-commerce
Size: (employees): 22
Investors: Co-founders and Venture Partners (9 per cent)
Other must-tries
Tomato and walnut salad
A lesson in simple, seasonal eating. Wedges of tomato, chunks of cucumber, thinly sliced red onion, coriander or parsley leaves, and perhaps some fresh dill are drizzled with a crushed walnut and garlic dressing. Do consider yourself warned: if you eat this salad in Georgia during the summer months, the tomatoes will be so ripe and flavourful that every tomato you eat from that day forth will taste lacklustre in comparison.
Badrijani nigvzit
A delicious vegetarian snack or starter. It consists of thinly sliced, fried then cooled aubergine smothered with a thick and creamy walnut sauce and folded or rolled. Take note, even though it seems like you should be able to pick these morsels up with your hands, they’re not as durable as they look. A knife and fork is the way to go.
Pkhali
This healthy little dish (a nice antidote to the khachapuri) is usually made with steamed then chopped cabbage, spinach, beetroot or green beans, combined with walnuts, garlic and herbs to make a vegetable pâté or paste. The mix is then often formed into rounds, chilled in the fridge and topped with pomegranate seeds before being served.
Quick pearls of wisdom
Focus on gratitude: And do so deeply, he says. “Think of one to three things a day that you’re grateful for. It needs to be specific, too, don’t just say ‘air.’ Really think about it. If you’re grateful for, say, what your parents have done for you, that will motivate you to do more for the world.”
Know how to fight: Shetty married his wife, Radhi, three years ago (he met her in a meditation class before he went off and became a monk). He says they’ve had to learn to respect each other’s “fighting styles” – he’s a talk it-out-immediately person, while she needs space to think. “When you’re having an argument, remember, it’s not you against each other. It’s both of you against the problem. When you win, they lose. If you’re on a team you have to win together.”
GOLF’S RAHMBO
- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
- Three wins in past 10 starts
- 45 pro starts worldwide: 5 wins, 17 top 5s
- Ranked 551th in world on debut, now No 4 (was No 2 earlier this year)
- 5th player in last 30 years to win 3 European Tour and 2 PGA Tour titles before age 24 (Woods, Garcia, McIlroy, Spieth)
Types of bank fraud
1) Phishing
Fraudsters send an unsolicited email that appears to be from a financial institution or online retailer. The hoax email requests that you provide sensitive information, often by clicking on to a link leading to a fake website.
2) Smishing
The SMS equivalent of phishing. Fraudsters falsify the telephone number through “text spoofing,” so that it appears to be a genuine text from the bank.
3) Vishing
The telephone equivalent of phishing and smishing. Fraudsters may pose as bank staff, police or government officials. They may persuade the consumer to transfer money or divulge personal information.
4) SIM swap
Fraudsters duplicate the SIM of your mobile number without your knowledge or authorisation, allowing them to conduct financial transactions with your bank.
5) Identity theft
Someone illegally obtains your confidential information, through various ways, such as theft of your wallet, bank and utility bill statements, computer intrusion and social networks.
6) Prize scams
Fraudsters claiming to be authorised representatives from well-known organisations (such as Etisalat, du, Dubai Shopping Festival, Expo2020, Lulu Hypermarket etc) contact victims to tell them they have won a cash prize and request them to share confidential banking details to transfer the prize money.
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Infiniti QX80 specs
Engine: twin-turbocharged 3.5-liter V6
Power: 450hp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: From Dh450,000, Autograph model from Dh510,000
Available: Now
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MATCH INFO
Manchester United 1 (Fernandes pen 2') Tottenham Hotspur 6 (Ndombele 4', Son 7' & 37' Kane (30' & pen 79, Aurier 51')
Man of the match Son Heung-min (Tottenham)
MATCH INFO
Newcastle 2-2 Manchester City
Burnley 0-2 Crystal Palace
Chelsea 0-1 West Ham
Liverpool 2-1 Brighton
Tottenham 3-2 Bournemouth
Southampton v Watford (late)
How to play the stock market recovery in 2021?
If you are looking to build your long-term wealth in 2021 and beyond, the stock market is still the best place to do it as equities powered on despite the pandemic.
Investing in individual stocks is not for everyone and most private investors should stick to mutual funds and ETFs, but there are some thrilling opportunities for those who understand the risks.
Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank, says the 20 best-performing US and European stocks have delivered an average return year-to-date of 148 per cent, measured in local currency terms.
Online marketplace Etsy was the best performer with a return of 330.6 per cent, followed by communications software company Sinch (315.4 per cent), online supermarket HelloFresh (232.8 per cent) and fuel cells specialist NEL (191.7 per cent).
Mr Garnry says digital companies benefited from the lockdown, while green energy firms flew as efforts to combat climate change were ramped up, helped in part by the European Union’s green deal.
Electric car company Tesla would be on the list if it had been part of the S&P 500 Index, but it only joined on December 21. “Tesla has become one of the most valuable companies in the world this year as demand for electric vehicles has grown dramatically,” Mr Garnry says.
By contrast, the 20 worst-performing European stocks fell 54 per cent on average, with European banks hit by the economic fallout from the pandemic, while cruise liners and airline stocks suffered due to travel restrictions.
As demand for energy fell, the oil and gas industry had a tough year, too.
Mr Garnry says the biggest story this year was the “absolute crunch” in so-called value stocks, companies that trade at low valuations compared to their earnings and growth potential.
He says they are “heavily tilted towards financials, miners, energy, utilities and industrials, which have all been hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic”. “The last year saw these cheap stocks become cheaper and expensive stocks have become more expensive.”
This has triggered excited talk about the “great value rotation” but Mr Garnry remains sceptical. “We need to see a breakout of interest rates combined with higher inflation before we join the crowd.”
Always remember that past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Last year’s winners often turn out to be this year’s losers, and vice-versa.
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills