More than one in five EU citizens have had Covid-19 since the start of the pandemic, according to a new estimate.
The modelling suggests that about 94 million people in the bloc have been infected at some stage – more than three times the number of confirmed cases.
During the first wave in Europe in the spring of 2020, testing was scarce in many countries and the official figures were a significant underestimate.
But even in the age of mass testing, only about 43 per cent of infections are being detected, the study by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington in the US said.
The IHME's findings also suggest that Europe could be at the peak of its third wave of the pandemic.
Scientists say the combination of vaccines, lockdown measures and the seasonal effect of spring should be enough to reduce infections, hospital admissions and deaths in the EU’s 27 countries.
“It is possible that this week marks a watershed for the EU as a whole, with a peak in daily cases and deaths,” they said.
Blamed on the variant of Covid-19 first detected in the UK, the third wave forced several countries – including France and Germany – to impose new lockdowns.
Germany last week ordered its strictest measures yet, with ministers ordering 10pm curfews in many areas after the federal government in Berlin seized control from Germany's states.
However, several countries plan to ease restrictions in the coming weeks – raising fears of a resurgence in cases.
Scientists in Belgium, Switzerland and Italy have warned against a premature lifting of restrictions.
European countries are accelerating their vaccination programmes after a slow start, with nearly a quarter of EU citizens now having had a first dose.
Some governments are giving only one dose to people who have recovered from Covid-19 in the past, because they already have antibodies.
In addition, a previous recovery from Covid-19 is one of the ways that EU citizens will be able to prove they are safe to travel under a "digital green certificate" scheme unveiled by Brussels.
An infection within the past 180 days would eliminate the need for a vaccine or a negative test, under the proposals agreed this month by EU ambassadors.
The IHME modelling suggests that 21 per cent of the EU's 447 million population were infected at some stage during the pandemic.
However, most of these people would be unable to prove this because they never tested positive for the disease.
Europe watches India's Covid-19 crisis with alarm
Meanwhile, fears are growing in Europe about the possible impact of the crisis in India and the B.1.617 variant that could be fuelling the resurgence of the disease.
Health officials are also monitoring the spread of the variants first identified in South Africa and Brazil, which concerned officials because of their possible impact on vaccine efficacy.
The IHME’s modelling lays out a “worst scenario” in which a variant spreads out of control in Europe just as mobility and social contacts pick up again.
Such a scenario could lead to an additional 24,000 deaths across the EU, the study says.
The UK imposed a travel ban on India last week and Germany followed suit on Saturday after designating the country as a "virus variant zone".
"We're very worried about the new mutation of the virus discovered in India,” German Health Minister Jens Spahn told German media.
“So as not to endanger our vaccination programme, India travel has to be significantly limited".
More on Covid-19
UK joins global effort to tackle Covid-19 crisis in India
Israel reports no new deaths in milestone for vaccine programme
Vaccines are working: UK deaths and hospital cases in steep decline
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
The five pillars of Islam
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre turbo 4-cyl
Transmission: eight-speed auto
Power: 190bhp
Torque: 300Nm
Price: Dh169,900
On sale: now
FIXTURES
All times UAE ( 4 GMT)
Friday
Saint-Etienne v Montpellier (10.45pm)
Saturday
Monaco v Caen (7pm)
Amiens v Bordeaux (10pm)
Angers v Toulouse (10pm)
Metz v Dijon (10pm)
Nantes v Guingamp (10pm)
Rennes v Lille (10pm)
Sunday
Nice v Strasbourg (5pm)
Troyes v Lyon (7pm)
Marseille v Paris Saint-Germain (11pm)
Sarfira
Director: Sudha Kongara Prasad
Starring: Akshay Kumar, Radhika Madan, Paresh Rawal
Rating: 2/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The years Ramadan fell in May
The years Ramadan fell in May
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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GOLF’S RAHMBO
- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
- Three wins in past 10 starts
- 45 pro starts worldwide: 5 wins, 17 top 5s
- Ranked 551th in world on debut, now No 4 (was No 2 earlier this year)
- 5th player in last 30 years to win 3 European Tour and 2 PGA Tour titles before age 24 (Woods, Garcia, McIlroy, Spieth)
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INDIA V SOUTH AFRICA
First Test: October 2-6, at Visakhapatnam
Second Test: October 10-14, at Maharashtra
Third Test: October 19-23, at Ranchi
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Not Dark Yet
Shelby Lynne and Allison Moorer
Four stars
HOW TO WATCH
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Zayed Sustainability Prize
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
