More than one in five EU citizens have had Covid-19 since the start of the pandemic, according to a new estimate.
The modelling suggests that about 94 million people in the bloc have been infected at some stage – more than three times the number of confirmed cases.
During the first wave in Europe in the spring of 2020, testing was scarce in many countries and the official figures were a significant underestimate.
But even in the age of mass testing, only about 43 per cent of infections are being detected, the study by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington in the US said.
The IHME's findings also suggest that Europe could be at the peak of its third wave of the pandemic.
Scientists say the combination of vaccines, lockdown measures and the seasonal effect of spring should be enough to reduce infections, hospital admissions and deaths in the EU’s 27 countries.
“It is possible that this week marks a watershed for the EU as a whole, with a peak in daily cases and deaths,” they said.
Blamed on the variant of Covid-19 first detected in the UK, the third wave forced several countries – including France and Germany – to impose new lockdowns.
Germany last week ordered its strictest measures yet, with ministers ordering 10pm curfews in many areas after the federal government in Berlin seized control from Germany's states.
However, several countries plan to ease restrictions in the coming weeks – raising fears of a resurgence in cases.
Scientists in Belgium, Switzerland and Italy have warned against a premature lifting of restrictions.
European countries are accelerating their vaccination programmes after a slow start, with nearly a quarter of EU citizens now having had a first dose.
Some governments are giving only one dose to people who have recovered from Covid-19 in the past, because they already have antibodies.
In addition, a previous recovery from Covid-19 is one of the ways that EU citizens will be able to prove they are safe to travel under a "digital green certificate" scheme unveiled by Brussels.
An infection within the past 180 days would eliminate the need for a vaccine or a negative test, under the proposals agreed this month by EU ambassadors.
The IHME modelling suggests that 21 per cent of the EU's 447 million population were infected at some stage during the pandemic.
However, most of these people would be unable to prove this because they never tested positive for the disease.
Europe watches India's Covid-19 crisis with alarm
Meanwhile, fears are growing in Europe about the possible impact of the crisis in India and the B.1.617 variant that could be fuelling the resurgence of the disease.
Health officials are also monitoring the spread of the variants first identified in South Africa and Brazil, which concerned officials because of their possible impact on vaccine efficacy.
The IHME’s modelling lays out a “worst scenario” in which a variant spreads out of control in Europe just as mobility and social contacts pick up again.
Such a scenario could lead to an additional 24,000 deaths across the EU, the study says.
The UK imposed a travel ban on India last week and Germany followed suit on Saturday after designating the country as a "virus variant zone".
"We're very worried about the new mutation of the virus discovered in India,” German Health Minister Jens Spahn told German media.
“So as not to endanger our vaccination programme, India travel has to be significantly limited".
More on Covid-19
UK joins global effort to tackle Covid-19 crisis in India
Israel reports no new deaths in milestone for vaccine programme
Vaccines are working: UK deaths and hospital cases in steep decline
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White hydrogen: Naturally occurring hydrogen
Chromite: Hard, metallic mineral containing iron oxide and chromium oxide
Ultramafic rocks: Dark-coloured rocks rich in magnesium or iron with very low silica content
Ophiolite: A section of the earth’s crust, which is oceanic in nature that has since been uplifted and exposed on land
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French business
France has organised a delegation of leading businesses to travel to Syria. The group was led by French shipping giant CMA CGM, which struck a 30-year contract in May with the Syrian government to develop and run Latakia port. Also present were water and waste management company Suez, defence multinational Thales, and Ellipse Group, which is currently looking into rehabilitating Syrian hospitals.
A Dog's Journey
Directed by: Gail Mancuso
Starring: Dennis Quaid, Josh Gad, Marg Helgenberger, Betty Gilpin, Kathryn Prescott
3 out of 5 stars
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Match info
Arsenal 0
Manchester City 2
Sterling (14'), Bernardo Silva (64')
MATCH INFO
Euro 2020 qualifier
Croatia v Hungary, Thursday, 10.45pm, UAE
TV: Match on BeIN Sports
SQUADS
UAE
Mohammed Naveed (captain), Mohamed Usman (vice-captain), Ashfaq Ahmed, Chirag Suri, Shaiman Anwar, Mohammed Boota, Ghulam Shabber, Imran Haider, Tahir Mughal, Amir Hayat, Zahoor Khan, Qadeer Ahmed, Fahad Nawaz, Abdul Shakoor, Sultan Ahmed, CP Rizwan
Nepal
Paras Khadka (captain), Gyanendra Malla, Dipendra Singh Airee, Pradeep Airee, Binod Bhandari, Avinash Bohara, Sundeep Jora, Sompal Kami, Karan KC, Rohit Paudel, Sandeep Lamichhane, Lalit Rajbanshi, Basant Regmi, Pawan Sarraf, Bhim Sharki, Aarif Sheikh
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
Last-16
France 4
Griezmann (13' pen), Pavard (57'), Mbappe (64', 68')
Argentina 3
Di Maria (41'), Mercado (48'), Aguero (90 3')
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Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
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Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
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Brief scores:
Newcastle United 1
Perez 23'
Wolverhampton Rovers 2
Jota 17', Doherty 90' 4
Red cards: Yedlin 57'
Man of the Match: Diogo Jota (Wolves)
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League, last 16, first leg
Ajax v Real Madrid, midnight (Thursday), BeIN Sports
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Director: Scott Cooper
Starring: Jeremy Allen White, Odessa Young, Jeremy Strong
Rating: 4/5
The Birkin bag is made by Hermès.
It is named after actress and singer Jane Birkin
Noone from Hermès will go on record to say how much a new Birkin costs, how long one would have to wait to get one, and how many bags are actually made each year.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Pathaan
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Company info
Company name: Entrupy
Co-founders: Vidyuth Srinivasan, co-founder/chief executive, Ashlesh Sharma, co-founder/chief technology officer, Lakshmi Subramanian, co-founder/chief scientist
Based: New York, New York
Sector/About: Entrupy is a hardware-enabled SaaS company whose mission is to protect businesses, borders and consumers from transactions involving counterfeit goods.
Initial investment/Investors: Entrupy secured a $2.6m Series A funding round in 2017. The round was led by Tokyo-based Digital Garage and Daiwa Securities Group's jointly established venture arm, DG Lab Fund I Investment Limited Partnership, along with Zach Coelius.
Total customers: Entrupy’s customers include hundreds of secondary resellers, marketplaces and other retail organisations around the world. They are also testing with shipping companies as well as customs agencies to stop fake items from reaching the market in the first place.
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
The Bio
Name: Lynn Davison
Profession: History teacher at Al Yasmina Academy, Abu Dhabi
Children: She has one son, Casey, 28
Hometown: Pontefract, West Yorkshire in the UK
Favourite book: The Alchemist by Paulo Coelho
Favourite Author: CJ Sansom
Favourite holiday destination: Bali
Favourite food: A Sunday roast
Anxiety and work stress major factors
Anxiety, work stress and social isolation are all factors in the recogised rise in mental health problems.
A study UAE Ministry of Health researchers published in the summer also cited struggles with weight and illnesses as major contributors.
Its authors analysed a dozen separate UAE studies between 2007 and 2017. Prevalence was often higher in university students, women and in people on low incomes.
One showed 28 per cent of female students at a Dubai university reported symptoms linked to depression. Another in Al Ain found 22.2 per cent of students had depressive symptoms - five times the global average.
It said the country has made strides to address mental health problems but said: “Our review highlights the overall prevalence of depressive symptoms and depression, which may long have been overlooked."
Prof Samir Al Adawi, of the department of behavioural medicine at Sultan Qaboos University in Oman, who was not involved in the study but is a recognised expert in the Gulf, said how mental health is discussed varies significantly between cultures and nationalities.
“The problem we have in the Gulf is the cross-cultural differences and how people articulate emotional distress," said Prof Al Adawi.
“Someone will say that I have physical complaints rather than emotional complaints. This is the major problem with any discussion around depression."
Daniel Bardsley
New schools in Dubai
Tamkeen's offering
- Option 1: 70% in year 1, 50% in year 2, 30% in year 3
- Option 2: 50% across three years
- Option 3: 30% across five years
Emergency
Director: Kangana Ranaut
Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Anupam Kher, Shreyas Talpade, Milind Soman, Mahima Chaudhry
Rating: 2/5
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5