Turkey is likely to face moderate sanctions from the EU as it continues its fuel exploration in the Eastern Mediterranean.
The punitive measures expected from EU leaders this week will fall short of trade or financial penalties, analysts say, but will worsen the stand-off that is becoming increasingly fractious.
Tension between Turkey and Greece heightened over the summer when Ankara sent a survey vessel to map out energy drilling prospects in waters also claimed by Athens.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan vowed not to “bow down to threats and blackmail” but repeated his call for negotiations over the conflicting claims to energy resources.
When EU leaders meet on Thursday, it is likely that Germany will be the key player in deciding whether sanctions are imposed.
It had hoped to mediate between Athens and Ankara, but was angered when Turkey resumed its gas exploration off Cyprus in October after a pause.
“There have been too many provocations, and tensions between Turkey, Cyprus and Greece have prevented any direct talks,” German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said on Monday.
“For this reason, we will talk about what consequences we should draw.”
EU leaders told Turkey in October to stop exploring in the disputed Eastern Mediterranean waters or face consequences.
France and the European Parliament, which formally called for sanctions last month, said it was time to punish Turkey.
Brussels considers Ankara to be fuelling the dispute for domestic political reasons.
Even if the EU does impose sanctions, there are doubts that they will be tough enough to force Turkey to change its stance.
“I question that the European Union will impose painful sanctions on Turkey,” said Fadi Hakura, the Turkey specialist for international think tank Chatham House.
“At most, they will merely be slaps on the wrist rather than anything to convince, to persuade Turkey to alter its behaviour.”
Analysts believe that harsh financial penalties would make Turkey change its position because its economy is in severe difficulty.
With more than 45 per cent of Turkey’s trade conducted with the EU, tough export sanctions would strangle its economy.
“They could also put restrictions on European tourists going to Turkey in the summer, with foreign ministries cautioning their citizens not to visit for security reasons,” Mr Hakura said.
He believes that Mr Erdogan is making an issue over the eastern Mediterranean to deflect attention from Turkey’s severe economic and political challenges.
“He's trying to demonstrate that Turkey is indeed an indispensable power in the region.”
Greece said it would not begin formal talks with Turkey over the maritime row while Turkish vessels remain in the contested waters.
The Turkish vessel Oruc Reis returned to port again last week, helping to calm tensions.
But European Council President Charles Michel warned Turkey not to play “cat and mouse” by returning exploration ships to port just before EU summits, only to send them back out once talks had concluded.
Sanctions could also be part of a bigger issue over European energy, including the oil pipeline from Libya to southern Italy, which would reduce European reliance on the Russian Nord Stream 2 pipeline, according to Prof Michael Clarke of the Royal United Services Institute.
Prof Clarke believes the dispute in the Eastern Mediterranean is part of the wider negotiation over Europe’s fuel supply, which also involves Turkey.
“I don’t think that the EU will pass tough enough sanctions. It’s a difficult call to make but sanctions could at least make Turkey wake up to what it’s doing," he said.
“The EU sanctions will not be crippling because Turkey and the EU have got lots of other things they want to talk about. It will be steps up in the escalation ladder.
"This issue is all eminently negotiable.
“But Turkey also has to understand that the Europeans are very annoyed because of the way in which they reacted to the exploration, because it directly challenges the whole legitimacy of Cyprus, which is part of the EU."
Dubai works towards better air quality by 2021
Dubai is on a mission to record good air quality for 90 per cent of the year – up from 86 per cent annually today – by 2021.
The municipality plans to have seven mobile air-monitoring stations by 2020 to capture more accurate data in hourly and daily trends of pollution.
These will be on the Palm Jumeirah, Al Qusais, Muhaisnah, Rashidiyah, Al Wasl, Al Quoz and Dubai Investment Park.
“It will allow real-time responding for emergency cases,” said Khaldoon Al Daraji, first environment safety officer at the municipality.
“We’re in a good position except for the cases that are out of our hands, such as sandstorms.
“Sandstorms are our main concern because the UAE is just a receiver.
“The hotspots are Iran, Saudi Arabia and southern Iraq, but we’re working hard with the region to reduce the cycle of sandstorm generation.”
Mr Al Daraji said monitoring as it stood covered 47 per cent of Dubai.
There are 12 fixed stations in the emirate, but Dubai also receives information from monitors belonging to other entities.
“There are 25 stations in total,” Mr Al Daraji said.
“We added new technology and equipment used for the first time for the detection of heavy metals.
“A hundred parameters can be detected but we want to expand it to make sure that the data captured can allow a baseline study in some areas to ensure they are well positioned.”
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
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The specs
Engine: 1.6-litre 4-cyl turbo and dual electric motors
Power: 300hp at 6,000rpm
Torque: 520Nm at 1,500-3,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 8.0L/100km
Price: from Dh199,900
On sale: now
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• Round up: Experts share their visions of the world to come
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• The National announces Future of News journalism competition
• Round up: Experts share their visions of the world to come
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- Premier League-standard football pitch
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TOURNAMENT INFO
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The top two teams will qualify to play at the World T20 in the West Indies in November
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Humaira Tasneem (captain), Chamani Seneviratne, Subha Srinivasan, Neha Sharma, Kavisha Kumari, Judit Cleetus, Chaya Mughal, Roopa Nagraj, Heena Hotchandani, Namita D’Souza, Ishani Senevirathne, Esha Oza, Nisha Ali, Udeni Kuruppuarachchi
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Chelsea: Willian (40'), Batshuayi (42', 49')
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Iran's dirty tricks to dodge sanctions
There’s increased scrutiny on the tricks being used to keep commodities flowing to and from blacklisted countries. Here’s a description of how some work.
1 Going Dark
A common method to transport Iranian oil with stealth is to turn off the Automatic Identification System, an electronic device that pinpoints a ship’s location. Known as going dark, a vessel flicks the switch before berthing and typically reappears days later, masking the location of its load or discharge port.
2. Ship-to-Ship Transfers
A first vessel will take its clandestine cargo away from the country in question before transferring it to a waiting ship, all of this happening out of sight. The vessels will then sail in different directions. For about a third of Iranian exports, more than one tanker typically handles a load before it’s delivered to its final destination, analysts say.
3. Fake Destinations
Signaling the wrong destination to load or unload is another technique. Ships that intend to take cargo from Iran may indicate their loading ports in sanction-free places like Iraq. Ships can keep changing their destinations and end up not berthing at any of them.
4. Rebranded Barrels
Iranian barrels can also be rebranded as oil from a nation free from sanctions such as Iraq. The countries share fields along their border and the crude has similar characteristics. Oil from these deposits can be trucked out to another port and documents forged to hide Iran as the origin.
* Bloomberg
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
Damien McElroy: A CEO tasked with spreading Iran's influence
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
Rashmee Roshan Lall: Sound of silence in South Asia
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MATCH INFO
Sheffield United 3
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The specs: 2018 Ford Mustang GT
Price, base / as tested: Dh204,750 / Dh241,500
Engine: 5.0-litre V8
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National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
Damien McElroy: A CEO tasked with spreading Iran's influence
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
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Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
Rashmee Roshan Lall: Sound of silence in South Asia
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Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
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Damien McElroy: A CEO tasked with spreading Iran's influence
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MATCH INFO
CAF Champions League semi-finals first-leg fixtures
Tuesday:
Primeiro Agosto (ANG) v Esperance (TUN) (8pm UAE)
Al Ahly (EGY) v Entente Setif (ALG) (11PM)
Second legs:
October 23
Predictions
Predicted winners for final round of games before play-offs:
- Friday: Delhi v Chennai - Chennai
- Saturday: Rajasthan v Bangalore - Bangalore
- Saturday: Hyderabad v Kolkata - Hyderabad
- Sunday: Delhi v Mumbai - Mumbai
- Sunday - Chennai v Punjab - Chennai
Final top-four (who will make play-offs): Chennai, Hyderabad, Mumbai and Bangalore
KLOPP%20AT%20LIVERPOOL
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KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
Damien McElroy: A CEO tasked with spreading Iran's influence
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
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Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
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Titan Sports Academy:
Programmes: Judo, wrestling, kick-boxing, muay thai, taekwondo and various summer camps
Location: Inside Abu Dhabi City Golf Club, Al Mushrif, Abu Dhabi, UAE
Telephone: 971 50 220 0326
