EU offers Turkey chance of stronger ties if de-escalation is sustained


Jamie Prentis
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The EU said it was ready for a closer relationship with Turkey, but only if recent de-escalation in the eastern Mediterranean was sustained and Ankara was willing to engage constructively with Brussels.

Brussels warned Turkey it would use the “instruments and options at its disposal” to protect EU member states if Ankara was unable to abstain from provocation or illegal actions.

The offer came after Thursday’s European Council meeting, where the EU’s often uneasy relations with its neighbour Turkey were a major part of talks.

Tension soared last year after the EU backed member states Cyprus and Greece in a dispute with Turkey over maritime borders and drilling activities in the eastern Mediterranean. The bloc levied sanctions on several Turkish people and entities as a result, but has not gone any further after Ankara backed down.

Brussels has been highly critical of recent domestic repression in Turkey and condemned President Recep Tayyip Erdogan last year when he questioned the mental health of French President Emmanuel Macron.

There are signs Ankara is more willing to adopt a conciliatory approach, however,  as it restarted exploratory talks with Greece and halted drilling activities in the Mediterranean that the EU described as illegal.

The European Council said it was ready to enhance co-operation with Turkey in a number of areas in a “phased proportionate and reversible manner”, as long as the goodwill continued.

This included intensifying talks on a reformed EU-Turkey customs union and high-level dialogues on issues such as public health, climate change, counter-terrorism and wider regional issues.

Turkey wants to update a deal struck five years ago to stop large-scale migrant arrivals in the EU, many of them fleeing the war in Syria via Turkey, in return for billions of euros in aid.

The bloc has so far refused to reopen the agreement but the summit told the European Commission to come up with a proposal on more funding for Turkey for housing millions of refugees.

"We think it is important to keep on going with the support in this humanitarian cause concerning the Syrian refugees in Turkey," Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission said.

The EU, however, reiterated its alarm at recent domestic incidents in Turkey, including attempts to ban a major opposition political party, and its withdrawal from a treaty on violence against women.

“Rule of law and fundamental rights remain a key concern. The targeting of political parties and media and other recent decisions represent major setbacks for human rights and run counter to Turkey’s obligations to respect democracy, the rule of law and women’s rights.

“Dialogue on such issues remains an integral part of the EU-Turkey relationship,” a statement said.

The bloc’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell had earlier warned the situation remained fragile, despite positive developments in recent months.

European Council President Charles Michel, who chaired the meeting, said there was "a clear framework and we hope, we really hope, it will be possible to improve the relationship with Turkey.

"But we remain cautious and remain careful."

He said EU officials were in contact with Turkey to discuss the possibility of a visit in April.

"We need contact with Turkey at all levels and also to talk about both the controversial and common interests. We are now taking a first step and giving a mandate to further develop relations and then want to take decisions in June," German Chancellor Angela Merkel said., referring to the next European Council.

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Buyers should try to pay as much in cash as possible for a property, limiting the mortgage value to as little as they can afford. This means they not only pay less in interest but their monthly costs are also reduced. Ideally, the monthly mortgage payment should not exceed 20 per cent of the purchaser’s total household income, says Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching.

“If it’s a rental property, plan for the property to have periods when it does not have a tenant. Ensure you have enough cash set aside to pay the mortgage and other costs during these periods, ideally at least six months,” she says. 

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Will the pound fall to parity with the dollar?

The idea of pound parity now seems less far-fetched as the risk grows that Britain may split away from the European Union without a deal.

Rupert Harrison, a fund manager at BlackRock, sees the risk of it falling to trade level with the dollar on a no-deal Brexit. The view echoes Morgan Stanley’s recent forecast that the currency can plunge toward $1 (Dh3.67) on such an outcome. That isn’t the majority view yet – a Bloomberg survey this month estimated the pound will slide to $1.10 should the UK exit the bloc without an agreement.

New Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said that Britain will leave the EU on the October 31 deadline with or without an agreement, fuelling concern the nation is headed for a disorderly departure and fanning pessimism toward the pound. Sterling has fallen more than 7 per cent in the past three months, the worst performance among major developed-market currencies.

“The pound is at a much lower level now but I still think a no-deal exit would lead to significant volatility and we could be testing parity on a really bad outcome,” said Mr Harrison, who manages more than $10 billion in assets at BlackRock. “We will see this game of chicken continue through August and that’s likely negative for sterling,” he said about the deadlocked Brexit talks.

The pound fell 0.8 per cent to $1.2033 on Friday, its weakest closing level since the 1980s, after a report on the second quarter showed the UK economy shrank for the first time in six years. The data means it is likely the Bank of England will cut interest rates, according to Mizuho Bank.

The BOE said in November that the currency could fall even below $1 in an analysis on possible worst-case Brexit scenarios. Options-based calculations showed around a 6.4 per cent chance of pound-dollar parity in the next one year, markedly higher than 0.2 per cent in early March when prospects of a no-deal outcome were seemingly off the table.

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2012-2015

The company offers payments/bribes to win key contracts in the Middle East

May 2017

The UK SFO officially opens investigation into Petrofac’s use of agents, corruption, and potential bribery to secure contracts

September 2021

Petrofac pleads guilty to seven counts of failing to prevent bribery under the UK Bribery Act

October 2021

Court fines Petrofac £77 million for bribery. Former executive receives a two-year suspended sentence 

December 2024

Petrofac enters into comprehensive restructuring to strengthen the financial position of the group

May 2025

The High Court of England and Wales approves the company’s restructuring plan

July 2025

The Court of Appeal issues a judgment challenging parts of the restructuring plan

August 2025

Petrofac issues a business update to execute the restructuring and confirms it will appeal the Court of Appeal decision

October 2025

Petrofac loses a major TenneT offshore wind contract worth €13 billion. Holding company files for administration in the UK. Petrofac delisted from the London Stock Exchange

November 2025

180 Petrofac employees laid off in the UAE

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