Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson stepped down from the scietific advisory group known as Sage over allegations he broke lockdown rules. Reuters
Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson stepped down from the scietific advisory group known as Sage over allegations he broke lockdown rules. Reuters
Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson stepped down from the scietific advisory group known as Sage over allegations he broke lockdown rules. Reuters
Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson stepped down from the scietific advisory group known as Sage over allegations he broke lockdown rules. Reuters

Europe

Coronavirus: UK death toll could have been halved if government acted sooner

Former Whitehall adviser Prof Neil Ferguson says UK lockdown one week earlier would have saved tens of thousands of lives

Arthur Scott-Geddes
Arthur Scott-Geddes

June 10, 2020

  • English
  • Arabic

The UK’s death toll from the coronavirus pandemic could have been halved if lockdown measures were introduced only a week earlier, a leading British epidemiologist said on Wednesday.

Professor Neil Ferguson, a former member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), which plays a central role in shaping the government’s response to the crisis, told British politicians the country had taken the right measures, but had acted too late.

Britain’s official death toll from confirmed cases of Covid-19 is now more than 41,000, making it Europe’s highest. When suspected cases are included, the tally rises to more than 50,000.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson introduced lockdown measures on March 23 but has faced criticism for failing to act quickly enough in the early stages of the country’s outbreak.

"The epidemic was doubling every three to four days before lockdown interventions were introduced. So, had we introduced lockdown measures a week earlier, we would have then reduced the final death toll by at least a half," Mr Ferguson said.

Together with colleagues at Imperial College London, Mr Ferguson produced an influential model that influenced the government’s response to the outbreak and warned hundreds of thousands of people could have died if the virus were allowed to spread unchecked.

The Imperial College report was widely credited with dissuading the government from pursuing a ‘herd-immunity’ strategy, allowing the virus to spread through the population to enable people to build up resistance to it.

Mr Ferguson’s revised estimate, which came after sweeping lockdown measures were introduced, predicted that around 20,000 might die.

This estimate proved inaccurate because care home residents were not successfully shielded from the outbreak, he said.

Mr Ferguson, who became well-known in the UK after appearing in several daily government briefings on the virus, stepped down from Sage after newspapers reported he had broken lockdown rules to meet a female friend.

Britain, which is suffering Europe’s worst outbreak of the virus, recorded 245 further deaths on Wednesday, for a total of 41,128.

The country is slowly being allowed out of lockdown, with many shops allowed to reopen next week.

The overwhelming majority of parents kept their children at home when schools reopened for younger pupils in England last week, and the government is under renewed pressure to allow pupils of all ages to return to education.

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A woman wearing a face mask rests on a bench at a public park in Beijing amid easing of restrictions enforced to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. AP Photo
A woman wearing a face mask rests on a bench at a public park in Beijing amid easing of restrictions enforced to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. AP Photo
Visitors look at a giraffe at the national zoo in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Reuters
Visitors look at a giraffe at the national zoo in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Reuters
Pedestrians walk in a market in Kathmandu. AFP
Pedestrians walk in a market in Kathmandu. AFP
A woman wearing a protective face mask waits to check her temperature in an Apple store in Shanghai, China. Reuters
A woman wearing a protective face mask waits to check her temperature in an Apple store in Shanghai, China. Reuters
People wearing face masks to protect against the spread of the new coronavirus walk in Yokohama, near Tokyo. AP Photo
People wearing face masks to protect against the spread of the new coronavirus walk in Yokohama, near Tokyo. AP Photo
A woman wearing a face mask to protect against the spread of the coronavirus walks down stone steps at the Ofuna Kannon Buddhist temple in Kamakura, near Tokyo. AP Photo
A woman wearing a face mask to protect against the spread of the coronavirus walks down stone steps at the Ofuna Kannon Buddhist temple in Kamakura, near Tokyo. AP Photo
TV crew wear protective masks as they produce a programme about the coronavirus pandemic in Hanoi, Vietnam. Reuters
TV crew wear protective masks as they produce a programme about the coronavirus pandemic in Hanoi, Vietnam. Reuters
A man wearing a surgical mask walks along the Helix Bridge next to the Marina Bay Sands hotel in Singapore. EPA
A man wearing a surgical mask walks along the Helix Bridge next to the Marina Bay Sands hotel in Singapore. EPA
Students, wearing face masks amid the coronavirus pandemic, sit by a mural depicting the Indonesian flag at an Islamic junior high school in Banda Aceh. AFP
Students, wearing face masks amid the coronavirus pandemic, sit by a mural depicting the Indonesian flag at an Islamic junior high school in Banda Aceh. AFP
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A worker checking on a finished motorcycle at an assembly unit of Royal Enfield motorcycle inside its factory in Oragadam, Tami Nadu. AFP
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A municipal corporation worker fumigates a neighbourhood in Mumbai, Maharashtra state, India. AP Photo
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A demonstrator wearing a clown mask and holding a sign that says 'Where is Queiroz?' takes part in a protest against Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro in front of the Superior Electoral Tribunal (TSE), amid the coronavirus disease, in Brasilia, Brazil. Reuters
Health workers attend a rally in support of Colombian doctor Jose Buelvas Diaz outside the San Ignacio Hospital in Bogota, Colombia. Buelvas Diaz has reportedly received anonymous threats after one of his patients died with Covid-19 in Barranquilla, north of Colombia. EPA
Health workers attend a rally in support of Colombian doctor Jose Buelvas Diaz outside the San Ignacio Hospital in Bogota, Colombia. Buelvas Diaz has reportedly received anonymous threats after one of his patients died with Covid-19 in Barranquilla, north of Colombia. EPA
Migrants, part of a group of 50 Guatemalans deported from the United States, wear face masks as a preventive measure against the coronavirus, as they get into a bus upon landing at the air force base in Guatemala City. AFP
Migrants, part of a group of 50 Guatemalans deported from the United States, wear face masks as a preventive measure against the coronavirus, as they get into a bus upon landing at the air force base in Guatemala City. AFP
A man in line at Christian City, an assisted living home, to cast their ballots after Democratic and Republican primaries were delayed due to coronavirus restrictions in Union City, Georgia. Reuters
A man in line at Christian City, an assisted living home, to cast their ballots after Democratic and Republican primaries were delayed due to coronavirus restrictions in Union City, Georgia. Reuters
Voters wait at Christian City, an assisted living home, to cast their ballots after Democratic and Republican primaries were delayed due to coronavirus restrictions in Union City, Georgia. Reuters
Voters wait at Christian City, an assisted living home, to cast their ballots after Democratic and Republican primaries were delayed due to coronavirus restrictions in Union City, Georgia. Reuters
Clark County election workers talk behind a ballot box set up for primary election amid the coronavirus pandemic in North Las Vegas, Nevada. This is the first time ballots have been mailed to all registered active voters in Nevada's history as the state holds its first-ever election done almost entirely by mail because of the risk of spreading Covid-19. The Clark County registrar said unofficial results of the election will be reported tonight but, final results will not be available until after the last ballots are counted on June 16 or 17. Getty
Clark County election workers talk behind a ballot box set up for primary election amid the coronavirus pandemic in North Las Vegas, Nevada. This is the first time ballots have been mailed to all registered active voters in Nevada's history as the state holds its first-ever election done almost entirely by mail because of the risk of spreading Covid-19. The Clark County registrar said unofficial results of the election will be reported tonight but, final results will not be available until after the last ballots are counted on June 16 or 17. Getty
People who are registering to vote or who need a ballot wait in line outside the Clark County election department, which is serving as both a primary election ballot drop-off point and an in-person voting centre amid the coronavirus pandemic in North Las Vegas, Nevada. This is the first time ballots have been mailed to all registered active voters in Nevada's history. Getty Images
People who are registering to vote or who need a ballot wait in line outside the Clark County election department, which is serving as both a primary election ballot drop-off point and an in-person voting centre amid the coronavirus pandemic in North Las Vegas, Nevada. This is the first time ballots have been mailed to all registered active voters in Nevada's history. Getty Images
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Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
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Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
 
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
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Toss: Sindhis, elected to field first

Pakhtoons 137-6 (10 ov)

Fletcher 68 not out; Cutting 2-14

Sindhis 129-8 (10 ov)

Perera 47; Sohail 2-18

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Euro 2020 qualifier

Ukraine 2 (Yaremchuk 06', Yarmolenko 27')

Portugal 1 (Ronaldo 72' pen)

Key facilities
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Sharrie Williams
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Lin Rountree
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Anita Williams
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