Coronavirus: Cancer deaths projected to rise by 20 per cent in England

Cancer deaths in England could rise by more than 20 per cent in the next year because of the coronavirus outbreak, a new study has warned.

Researchers found a 76 per cent decrease in urgent referrals from family doctors for people suspected of having cancer and a 60 per cent decrease in chemotherapy appointments for cancer patients compared to pre-Covid-19 levels.

The analysis by cancer research group Data-Can and University College London analysed data from the medical records of 3.5 million patients in England.

It warned of 6,270 additional deaths in newly diagnosed cancer patients, rising to an estimated 17,915 additional deaths if all people currently living with cancer are taken into account.

The UK’s National Health Service has been forced to divert the majority of its resources to stopping the spread of the pandemic. Some cancer patients have seen their treatment delayed as medical authorities draw up a priority list.

“The overall impact of the COVID-19 emergency on deaths in cancer patients could be substantial,” said senior author Professor Harry Hemingway, the director of the UCL Institute of Health Informatics

“There are many factors operating here including rapid changes to diagnosis and treatment protocols, social distancing measures, changes in people’s behaviour in seeking medical attention and the economic impact of COVID-19, as well as deaths due to COVID-19 infection,” he said.

The researchers urged health authorities to make weekly data on deaths and cancer treatment available to ensure medical professionals have a better understanding of what treatment should be prioritised.

Lead author Dr Alvina Lai of the UCL Institute of Health Informatics said it is vital cancer patients are recognised as vulnerable and are given sufficient care.

“Our findings demonstrate the serious potential for unintended consequences of the response to the COVID-19 pandemic, which may negatively impact on patients with cancer and other underlying health conditions,” she added.

UK experts have urged the public not to hesitate in getting checked up despite the pandemic. Research has shown many are uneasy about seeking treatment even for serious health problems amid outbreak. One reason is people fear contracting the virus and bringing it home.

“The wishes of patients and their families will always come first, and we have to make sure that people feel safe coming to hospitals, but my message is clear: people should seek help as they always would,” said Professor Peter Johnson, the clinical director for cancer at the NHS.

“We know that finding cancer early gives us the best chance to cure it, and ignoring potential problems can have serious consequences now or in the future.”