The UK could have a sudden reversal in population numbers due to the success of its vaccine drive, after the pandemic sparked an "unprecedented" exit of foreign-born workers, a leading economist told The National on Wednesday.
Figures from the Office for National Statistics suggest almost a million people born outside Britain may have returned to their home countries last year, the biggest net outflow of foreign-born workers on record.
There were 795,000 fewer foreign-born workers in Britain in the final three months of 2020 than a year earlier, and nearly a million fewer foreign-born residents aged over 16, according to the statistics.
The figures come from an official survey of Britain’s labour market, not the main immigration data, which has been suspended due to the pandemic.
For this and other reasons, the ONS said, the figures should be “used with caution”.
The data also show that between February and November last year, the number of full-time UK employees dropped sharply, although pointed to a slight recovery in recent weeks.
The method by which responses to the survey are quantified assumes the UK's overall population still grew at its pre-pandemic rate, potentially giving a misleading starting point for the estimates.
The survey was not designed to capture migration flows, and the pandemic means phone calls have replaced door-to-door interviews. This makes it harder to tell whether fewer foreign-born respondents reflect a change in the sample or an underlying change.
But Jonathan Portes of King’s College London, who was chief economist at the UK’s Department for Work and Pensions, said there was “no doubt” that at hundreds of thousands of foreign-born workers, if not more, returned home.
"This is unprecedented in British economic history, as far as we know," he said.
“It’s probably the first time that the population overall has shrunk in the last 40 years. It’s probably the biggest fall in population since the Second World War. Historically, this is a big deal.”
Prof Portes said many of the foreign workers who left the country last year would have been employed in the hard-hit hospitality and events industries forced to close during rolling lockdowns.
He said those workers could be poised to return to the UK as the country emerges from lockdown, based on the success of the vaccination programme.
More than 17.9 million people have so far received a first dose of a vaccine, statistics show, with the government aiming to have all adults inoculated by July 31.
"There is a positive scenario in that we are worse hit than other countries because we mishandled the pandemic so badly, but maybe we will recover better than other countries because of the way we have handled the vaccination programme," Prof Portes said.
"In May, the UK was one of the worst places to be in the world, but this summer the UK [will be] one of the best places to be.
"In that case you could see a very sudden reversal – perhaps the statistics are not long-term significant.
“There is obviously a pessimistic scenario where we recover, but the recovery is slow and painful and that could have quite significant consequences for the UK in general.”
He said the UK’s unemployment rate of 5.1 per cent could have been higher if it wasn’t for foreign-born workers going home, shrinking the labour market.
“Immigration and labour market flexibility helps propel job growth and it’s pushing down on it in the same way,” he said.
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
MATCH INFO
Northern Warriors 92-1 (10 ovs)
Russell 37 no, Billings 35 no
Team Abu Dhabi 93-4 (8.3 ovs)
Wright 48, Moeen 30, Green 2-22
Team Abu Dhabi win by six wickets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
RESULT
Australia 3 (0) Honduras 1 (0)
Australia: Jedinak (53', 72' pen, 85' pen)
Honduras: Elis (90 4)
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
Zakat definitions
Zakat: an Arabic word meaning ‘to cleanse’ or ‘purification’.
Nisab: the minimum amount that a Muslim must have before being obliged to pay zakat. Traditionally, the nisab threshold was 87.48 grams of gold, or 612.36 grams of silver. The monetary value of the nisab therefore varies by current prices and currencies.
Zakat Al Mal: the ‘cleansing’ of wealth, as one of the five pillars of Islam; a spiritual duty for all Muslims meeting the ‘nisab’ wealth criteria in a lunar year, to pay 2.5 per cent of their wealth in alms to the deserving and needy.
Zakat Al Fitr: a donation to charity given during Ramadan, before Eid Al Fitr, in the form of food. Every adult Muslim who possesses food in excess of the needs of themselves and their family must pay two qadahs (an old measure just over 2 kilograms) of flour, wheat, barley or rice from each person in a household, as a minimum.
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20APPLE%20M3%20MACBOOK%20AIR%20(13%22)
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EProcessor%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Apple%20M3%2C%208-core%20CPU%2C%20up%20to%2010-core%20CPU%2C%2016-core%20Neural%20Engine%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDisplay%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2013.6-inch%20Liquid%20Retina%2C%202560%20x%201664%2C%20224ppi%2C%20500%20nits%2C%20True%20Tone%2C%20wide%20colour%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMemory%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%208%2F16%2F24GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStorage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20256%2F512GB%20%2F%201%2F2TB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EI%2FO%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Thunderbolt%203%2FUSB-4%20(2)%2C%203.5mm%20audio%2C%20Touch%20ID%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EConnectivity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Wi-Fi%206E%2C%20Bluetooth%205.3%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2052.6Wh%20lithium-polymer%2C%20up%20to%2018%20hours%2C%20MagSafe%20charging%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECamera%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%201080p%20FaceTime%20HD%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EVideo%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Support%20for%20Apple%20ProRes%2C%20HDR%20with%20Dolby%20Vision%2C%20HDR10%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAudio%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204-speaker%20system%2C%20wide%20stereo%2C%20support%20for%20Dolby%20Atmos%2C%20Spatial%20Audio%20and%20dynamic%20head%20tracking%20(with%20AirPods)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EColours%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Midnight%2C%20silver%2C%20space%20grey%2C%20starlight%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIn%20the%20box%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20MacBook%20Air%2C%2030W%2F35W%20dual-port%2F70w%20power%20adapter%2C%20USB-C-to-MagSafe%20cable%2C%202%20Apple%20stickers%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20From%20Dh4%2C599%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
RESULT
Valencia 3
Kevin Gameiro 21', 51'
Ferran Torres 67'
Atlanta 4
Josip Llicic 3' (P), 43' (P), 71', 82'
World%20Food%20Day%20
%3Cp%3ECelebrated%20on%20October%2016%2C%20to%20coincide%20with%20the%20founding%20date%20of%20the%20United%20Nations%20Food%20and%20Agriculture%20Organisation%2C%20World%20Food%20Day%20aims%20to%20tackle%20issues%20such%20as%20hunger%2C%20food%20security%2C%20food%20waste%20and%20the%20environmental%20impact%20of%20food%20production.%20%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
ILT20%20UAE%20stars
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ELEADING%20RUN%20SCORERS%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E1%20Nicholas%20Pooran%2C%20261%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E2%20Muhammad%20Waseem%20(UAE)%2C%20248%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E3%20Chris%20Lynn%2C%20244%3Cbr%3E4%20Johnson%20Charles%2C%20232%3Cbr%3E5%20Kusal%20Perera%2C%20230%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBEST%20BOWLING%20AVERAGE%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E(minimum%2010%20overs%20bowled)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E1%20Zuhaib%20Zubair%20(UAE)%2C%209%20wickets%20at%2012.44%3Cbr%3E2%20Mohammed%20Rohid%20(UAE)%2C%207%20at%2013.00%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E3%20Fazalhaq%20Farooqi%2C%2017%20at%2013.05%3Cbr%3E4%20Waqar%20Salamkheil%2C%2010%20at%2014.08%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E5%20Aayan%20Khan%20(UAE)%2C%204%20at%2015.50%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E6%20Wanindu%20Hasaranga%2C%2012%20at%2016.25%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E7%20Mohammed%20Jawadullah%20(UAE)%2C%2010%20at%2017.00%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
ZIMBABWE V UAE, ODI SERIES
All matches at the Harare Sports Club:
1st ODI, Wednesday - Zimbabwe won by 7 wickets
2nd ODI, Friday, April 12
3rd ODI, Sunday, April 14
4th ODI, Tuesday, April 16
UAE squad: Mohammed Naveed (captain), Rohan Mustafa, Ashfaq Ahmed, Shaiman Anwar, Mohammed Usman, CP Rizwan, Chirag Suri, Mohammed Boota, Ghulam Shabber, Sultan Ahmed, Imran Haider, Amir Hayat, Zahoor Khan, Qadeer Ahmed
UJDA CHAMAN
Produced: Panorama Studios International
Directed: Abhishek Pathak
Cast: Sunny Singh, Maanvi Gagroo, Grusha Kapoor, Saurabh Shukla
Rating: 3.5 /5 stars
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
The view from The National
The story in numbers
18
This is how many recognised sects Lebanon is home to, along with about four million citizens
450,000
More than this many Palestinian refugees are registered with UNRWA in Lebanon, with about 45 per cent of them living in the country’s 12 refugee camps
1.5 million
There are just under 1 million Syrian refugees registered with the UN, although the government puts the figure upwards of 1.5m
73
The percentage of stateless people in Lebanon, who are not of Palestinian origin, born to a Lebanese mother, according to a 2012-2013 study by human rights organisation Frontiers Ruwad Association
18,000
The number of marriages recorded between Lebanese women and foreigners between the years 1995 and 2008, according to a 2009 study backed by the UN Development Programme
77,400
The number of people believed to be affected by the current nationality law, according to the 2009 UN study
4,926
This is how many Lebanese-Palestinian households there were in Lebanon in 2016, according to a census by the Lebanese-Palestinian dialogue committee
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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1.
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United States
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2.
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China
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3.
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UAE
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4.
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Japan
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5
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Norway
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6.
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Canada
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7.
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Singapore
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8.
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Australia
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9.
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Saudi Arabia
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10.
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South Korea
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Profile of Tamatem
Date started: March 2013
Founder: Hussam Hammo
Based: Amman, Jordan
Employees: 55
Funding: $6m
Funders: Wamda Capital, Modern Electronics (part of Al Falaisah Group) and North Base Media
