When UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson arrives in India this spring he will not only be glowing with delight at his Covid vaccination success but confident that Britain is about reassert itself as a major global security player.
For that to happen, this coming Tuesday will prove a pivotal moment when Mr Johnson's interpretation of ‘Global Britain’ is spelt out with ambitious new goals for the UK as a military, diplomatic and intelligence power.
Mr Johnson hopes to set a fresh course for Britain when he announces the Integrated Review, the biggest strategic shake-up in decades, signalling Britain’s emergence from Brexit and Covid-19.
The 100-page document will detail the country’s geopolitical trajectory with a “tilt East” in projecting power and seeking great alliances.
It is clear that the armed forces are going to face their biggest overhaul in decades, with winners and losers.
There is a desire to turn the military into a highly modern and relevant force with drones, artificial intelligence, cyber and space ambitions. The losses will be humans, with machines taking over. The army will shrink from 82,000 to about 70,000 soldiers over the next five years.
With an extra £16 billion ($22bn) already allotted for defence, part of an £80bn four-year equipment plan, the document means a stronger navy and a better-equipped Royal Air Force. The desire for Britain to project itself as a serious military global player is clear in the plans drawn up by John Bew, the prime minister's adviser, and top civil servants.
The National has spoken with a former diplomat, a defence analyst and a military commander who all work for London-based think tanks, taking their views on where the review might take Britain.
The review, said Sir Simon Fraser, was an “important moment” in which Britain would set out its international strategy post-Brexit. “I would like a credible expression of a vision that takes a realistic approach to what Britain's capacity is in terms of influencing world events,” said the former permanent secretary to the Foreign Office.
It is the UK’s first opportunity after leaving the EU to showcase an independent national policy with global reach but, he warned, “it has to be backed by realistic choices and policies”.
Prof Michael Clarke, a leading defence expert, said there was likely to be some “assertive language” that will specify Britain’s adversaries. “It'll also talk about the need not to leave too much space in the world for the autocracies just to clean up, which is what has been happening.”
China and Russia will be identified “as the enduring challenge for the next decade or so,” said retired Brig Ben Barry, with Iran and North Korea regarded as regional rather than global challenges. “I also detect an appetite for more deployments, partnerships and international training than we’ve seen over the last five years.”
Indo-Pacific tilt
It is clear that the review will propose a tilt East, zeroing in on China’s attempts to dominate Asia and its view that the South China Sea is home waters rather than an international trading route.
It is almost certain that Britain will send its new aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth and its accompanying warships to the South China Sea in a key test of the Royal Navy's growing influence and power. But the potential for mishap or misunderstanding cannot be underestimated.
“It will rattle the Chinese and it’s an assertive move,” said Prof Clarke, of the Royal United Services Institute. “With accompanying Japanese, American and South Korean warships it’s going to look like an anti-Chinese demonstration built around what is currently the world’s newest and best aircraft carrier.”
But there is a danger that the carrier’s passage could be seen as symbolic, said Mr Fraser, deputy chairman of the Chatham House think tank. “One of the things that global Britain needs to avoid is symbolism, especially if that isn't backed by the reality of natural force projection.”
He believed the ‘tilt’ should mean Britain aligning itself with Asian democracies to manage the future relationship with China. “Clearly the geopolitical question we're all looking at is how it's going to evolve and whether China can be managed in a way that avoids inevitable competition descending to confrontation and potential conflict.”
Conflict is where Britain’s bluff could be called, said Brig Barry. “If there’s a flare-up with China, Taiwan or on the Korean peninsula, that poses a bit of an awkward question.”
That could be answered by Britain joining the informal ‘Quad’ alliance of Australia, the US, India and Japan. It will almost certainly be something Mr Johnson raises in India, on the first bilateral trade and security visit by a prime minister since Theresa May went to Africa in 2018.
New bases
That could play into a potential Integrated Review proposal for Britain to seek semi-permanent bases around the globe where it can station troops, ships and jets. Okinawa in Japan would be an ideal starting point, given that the Japanese share the same F35B jets as the British and the Americans are there, too.
The British naval facility in Singapore and the infantry barracks in Brunei, that houses a Gurkha battalion, could be similarly used to reinforce the Pacific focus. Australia is also keen for a British presence.
But the basing idea has to be backed with concrete plans, said Brig Barry. “If you're going to put stuff out in the Far East it's got to be capable of joining the US and responding to a crisis. It needs to be more than just flag-waving fighters and brave infantry with bayonets – it needs to be capable of combat. And it needs to be able to activate a logistics supply line very quickly in case their bluff is called."
Other bases under consideration, outside the permanent ones such as Cyprus, Bahrain and the Falkland Islands, are understood to include either Pacific or Caribbean islands that could be used for space observation as well as signals intelligence.
There are strong indications that the port and training area of Duqm in southern Oman could become a significant British hub housing an armoured battle group, warships and jets.
Basing in Oman will be part of the refocus on the Middle East, which is likely to follow the US on how it deals with Iran and its force levels in Iraq to combat ISIS. “We’ll stand behind the Americans on the Abraham Accord, on the Iran deal and then the bit we can make a contribution to is more stability in the Gulf,” Mr Fraser.
Nato
With Britain’s relations with Europe at a low following Brexit and vaccine rows, its continental allies will scrutinise how much attention the review will pay to its closest partner.
It is likely that the army will be reduced to one single armoured division to protect Nato, which could be seen as the bare minimum to deter Russian aggression.
“Eastern European members like Poland and the Baltics feel much more threatened by Russia than the UK does,” Brig Barry said. “And some of them have been asking that if there's a crisis with Russia, instead of sending armour will Britain simply send aggressive algorithms instead?”
I do see Russia as a challenge, but I don't see it in the geostrategic league in the same category as China and the United States
He argued that Nato should be the priority to deter Russia and reassure Eastern European members. It was therefore vital to assign resources to rebuild the army's conventional warfighting capability.
Prof Clarke agreed that “European security can't be taken for granted any more,” as it had been undermined by former US president Donald Trump’s nonchalance towards Nato.
Mr Fraser believed there was a diplomatic opportunity to build bridges with Europe by reviving collaboration with France and Germany to contain Russia.
“I don't see a positive agenda emanating from Moscow, therefore I see Russia as a problem to be managed at the moment. I do see Russia as a challenge, but I don't see it in the geostrategic league in the same category as China and the United States.”
It is also clear that the powers have “woken up to the importance of the Arctic,” said Prof Clarke, with both the US and the UK likely to concentrate more forces in the High North as the ice cap melts and economic opportunities appear.
Boris Johnson is going to have to work hard to ensure that Global Britain is more than a slogan. That will require deep thought and deeper pockets.
“The reaction will be either: ‘Yes, this is all sensible’ but now you've got to do it and pay for it’,” said Prof Clarke. “Or the other reaction will be: ‘This is pie in the sky and post-imperial aspiration’. A lot will depend on how it's presented and how solid the follow-up looks.”
The%20specs
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WOMAN AND CHILD
Director: Saeed Roustaee
Starring: Parinaz Izadyar, Payman Maadi
Rating: 4/5
HIJRA
Starring: Lamar Faden, Khairiah Nathmy, Nawaf Al-Dhufairy
Director: Shahad Ameen
Rating: 3/5
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Some of Darwish's last words
"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008
His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.
Panipat
Director Ashutosh Gowariker
Produced Ashutosh Gowariker, Rohit Shelatkar, Reliance Entertainment
Cast Arjun Kapoor, Sanjay Dutt, Kriti Sanon, Mohnish Behl, Padmini Kolhapure, Zeenat Aman
Rating 3 /5 stars
Tottenham's 10 biggest transfers (according to transfermarkt.com):
1). Moussa Sissokho - Newcastle United - £30 million (Dh143m): Flop
2). Roberto Soldado - Valencia - £25m: Flop
3). Erik Lamela - Roma - £25m: Jury still out
4). Son Heung-min - Bayer Leverkusen - £25m: Success
5). Darren Bent - Charlton Athletic - £21m: Flop
6). Vincent Janssen - AZ Alkmaar - £18m: Flop
7). David Bentley - Blackburn Rovers - £18m: Flop
8). Luka Modric - Dynamo Zagreb - £17m: Success
9). Paulinho - Corinthians - £16m: Flop
10). Mousa Dembele - Fulham - £16m: Success
Sweet%20Tooth
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Anxiety and work stress major factors
Anxiety, work stress and social isolation are all factors in the recogised rise in mental health problems.
A study UAE Ministry of Health researchers published in the summer also cited struggles with weight and illnesses as major contributors.
Its authors analysed a dozen separate UAE studies between 2007 and 2017. Prevalence was often higher in university students, women and in people on low incomes.
One showed 28 per cent of female students at a Dubai university reported symptoms linked to depression. Another in Al Ain found 22.2 per cent of students had depressive symptoms - five times the global average.
It said the country has made strides to address mental health problems but said: “Our review highlights the overall prevalence of depressive symptoms and depression, which may long have been overlooked."
Prof Samir Al Adawi, of the department of behavioural medicine at Sultan Qaboos University in Oman, who was not involved in the study but is a recognised expert in the Gulf, said how mental health is discussed varies significantly between cultures and nationalities.
“The problem we have in the Gulf is the cross-cultural differences and how people articulate emotional distress," said Prof Al Adawi.
“Someone will say that I have physical complaints rather than emotional complaints. This is the major problem with any discussion around depression."
Daniel Bardsley
The specs: 2018 Audi Q5/SQ5
Price, base: Dh183,900 / Dh249,000
Engine: 2.0L, turbocharged in-line four-cylinder / 3.0L, turbocharged V6
Gearbox: Seven-speed automatic / Eight-speed automatic
Power: 252hp @ 5,000rpm / 354hp @ 5,400rpm
Torque: 370Nm @ 1,600rpm / 500Nm @ 1,370rpm
Fuel economy: combined 7.2L / 100km / 8.3L / 100km
Zayed Sustainability Prize
WORLD CUP FINAL
England v South Africa
Yokohama International Stadium, Tokyo
Saturday, kick-off 1pm (UAE)
About Housecall
Date started: July 2020
Founders: Omar and Humaid Alzaabi
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: HealthTech
# of staff: 10
Funding to date: Self-funded
UAE cricketers abroad
Sid Jhurani is not the first cricketer from the UAE to go to the UK to try his luck.
Rameez Shahzad Played alongside Ben Stokes and Liam Plunkett in Durham while he was studying there. He also played club cricket as an overseas professional, but his time in the UK stunted his UAE career. The batsman went a decade without playing for the national team.
Yodhin Punja The seam bowler was named in the UAE’s extended World Cup squad in 2015 despite being just 15 at the time. He made his senior UAE debut aged 16, and subsequently took up a scholarship at Claremont High School in the south of England.
Fixtures:
Thursday:
Hatta v Al Jazira, 4.55pm
Al Wasl v Dibba, 7.45pm
Friday:
Al Dhafra v Al Nasr, 5.05pm
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai v Al Wahda, 7.45pm
Saturday:
Ajman v Emirates, 4.55pm
Al Ain v Sharjah, 7.45pm
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
Pharaoh's curse
British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.
The%20specs
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One-off T20 International: UAE v Australia
When: Monday, October 22, 2pm start
Where: Abu Dhabi Cricket, Oval 1
Tickets: Admission is free
Australia squad: Aaron Finch (captain), Mitch Marsh, Alex Carey, Ashton Agar, Nathan Coulter-Nile, Chris Lynn, Nathan Lyon, Glenn Maxwell, Ben McDermott, Darcy Short, Billy Stanlake, Mitchell Starc, Andrew Tye, Adam Zampa, Peter Siddle
Know before you go
- Jebel Akhdar is a two-hour drive from Muscat airport or a six-hour drive from Dubai. It’s impossible to visit by car unless you have a 4x4. Phone ahead to the hotel to arrange a transfer.
- If you’re driving, make sure your insurance covers Oman.
- By air: Budget airlines Air Arabia, Flydubai and SalamAir offer direct routes to Muscat from the UAE.
- Tourists from the Emirates (UAE nationals not included) must apply for an Omani visa online before arrival at evisa.rop.gov.om. The process typically takes several days.
- Flash floods are probable due to the terrain and a lack of drainage. Always check the weather before venturing into any canyons or other remote areas and identify a plan of escape that includes high ground, shelter and parking where your car won’t be overtaken by sudden downpours.
HAJJAN
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Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
NBA Finals results
Game 1: Warriors 124, Cavaliers 114
Game 2: Warriors 122, Cavaliers 103
Game 3: Cavaliers 102, Warriors 110
Game 4: In Cleveland, Sunday (Monday morning UAE)
Scores in brief:
Day 1
New Zealand (1st innings) 153 all out (66.3 overs) - Williamson 63, Nicholls 28, Yasir 3-54, Haris 2-11, Abbas 2-13, Hasan 2-38
Pakistan (1st innings) 59-2 (23 overs)
What can you do?
Document everything immediately; including dates, times, locations and witnesses
Seek professional advice from a legal expert
You can report an incident to HR or an immediate supervisor
You can use the Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation’s dedicated hotline
In criminal cases, you can contact the police for additional support
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
The specs: 2017 Maserati Quattroporte
Price, base / as tested Dh389,000 / Dh559,000
Engine 3.0L twin-turbo V8
Transmission Eight-speed automatic
Power 530hp @ 6,800rpm
Torque 650Nm @ 2,000 rpm
Fuel economy, combined 10.7L / 100km
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
What sanctions would be reimposed?
Under ‘snapback’, measures imposed on Iran by the UN Security Council in six resolutions would be restored, including:
- An arms embargo
- A ban on uranium enrichment and reprocessing
- A ban on launches and other activities with ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, as well as ballistic missile technology transfer and technical assistance
- A targeted global asset freeze and travel ban on Iranian individuals and entities
- Authorisation for countries to inspect Iran Air Cargo and Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines cargoes for banned goods
The Prison Letters of Nelson Mandela
Edited by Sahm Venter
Published by Liveright
AI traffic lights to ease congestion at seven points to Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Street
The seven points are:
Shakhbout bin Sultan Street
Dhafeer Street
Hadbat Al Ghubainah Street (outbound)
Salama bint Butti Street
Al Dhafra Street
Rabdan Street
Umm Yifina Street exit (inbound)
pakistan Test squad
Azhar Ali (capt), Shan Masood, Abid Ali, Imam-ul-Haq, Asad Shafiq, Babar Azam, Fawad Alam, Haris Sohail, Imran Khan, Kashif Bhatti, Mohammad Rizwan (wk), Naseem Shah, Shaheen Shah Afridi, Mohammad Abbas, Yasir Shah, Usman Shinwari
Guide to intelligent investing
Investing success often hinges on discipline and perspective. As markets fluctuate, remember these guiding principles:
- Stay invested: Time in the market, not timing the market, is critical to long-term gains.
- Rational thinking: Breathe and avoid emotional decision-making; let logic and planning guide your actions.
- Strategic patience: Understand why you’re investing and allow time for your strategies to unfold.
What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs: 2018 Jeep Compass
Price, base: Dh100,000 (estimate)
Engine: 2.4L four-cylinder
Transmission: Nine-speed automatic
Power: 184bhp at 6,400rpm
Torque: 237Nm at 3,900rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 9.4L / 100km
If you go
The flights
Emirates and Etihad fly direct to Nairobi, with fares starting from Dh1,695. The resort can be reached from Nairobi via a 35-minute flight from Wilson Airport or Jomo Kenyatta International Airport, or by road, which takes at least three hours.
The rooms
Rooms at Fairmont Mount Kenya range from Dh1,870 per night for a deluxe room to Dh11,000 per night for the William Holden Cottage.
The National Archives, Abu Dhabi
Founded over 50 years ago, the National Archives collects valuable historical material relating to the UAE, and is the oldest and richest archive relating to the Arabian Gulf.
Much of the material can be viewed on line at the Arabian Gulf Digital Archive - https://www.agda.ae/en
