As Britain heads towards its highest death toll since the Second World War, a scientist has suggested that the new strain of coronavirus means the number required for achieving herd immunity has risen by a third.
He also told The National that Britain's total fatalities could increase from the latest tally of 82,098 to more than 140,000 before the pandemic ends.
Frontline hospital workers have also spoken about being in a wartime situation, where they have to make life-and-death choices over who should be given intensive care beds. Health chiefs are now considering discharging patients early to hotels or their own homes to free up hospital beds.
Downing Street is hoping to deliver 24-hour vaccination centresto speed up the country's inoculation campaign even though the prospect of round-the-clock facilities were played down by some ministers.
But the ability to achieve herd immunity has risen from about 40 per cent of the population to 66 per cent with the appearance of the mutant strain, said Prof Graeme Ackland, a leading pandemic statistician at Edinburgh University.
Herd immunity is achieved when the virus can no longer spread among the population, through vaccination or people having already been infected.
If the wider population becomes immune, the disease cannot transmit.
In illnesses such as measles, the successful herd immunity percentage is 95 per cent and in polio about 80 per cent.
Prof Ackland said that with the mutant strain infecting at least 50 per cent more people, by his calculation this means 66 per cent of the population needs to be vaccinated to stop it transmitting, a lower percentage than for measles and polio.
The Oxford-educated physicist and engineer estimates that herd immunity will not be achieved until the population of about 67 million has been vaccinated with both shots, possibly not until the spring of 2022.
I think at the moment the number of new infections is probably quite close to the number of vaccinations
But Prof Ackland said the most vulnerable of the population, the elderly and frontline workers, will be vaccinated “just in time", before the onset of winter this year.
“What will happen on the timescale of six or seven months is that we’ll get to some herd immunity,” he said.
“We’ll get there because some people will be vaccinated and other people will have had the disease.
"I think at the moment the number of new infections is probably quite close to the number of vaccinations.
"In a perverse way, the more vaccinations we have the better, but also the more infections we have the sooner herd immunity will happen.”
This article explains how the UK is intending to hit its vaccine targets.
Prof Ackland warned of the “big unknown”: how effective the vaccine will be and whether having it will stop vaccinated people from spreading Covid.
He believes the death toll may exceed 140,000 in Britain, below the government estimate of 200,000 if there had been no vaccine.
The Office for National Statistics released new figures that showed Covid-19 now accounted for a third of all deaths in Britain in the first week of January.
Data from Public Health England also showed an exponential rise in cases throughout the country in the same week.
But one glimmer of hope in the past week has been news that Covid-19 testing has increased by a third, but positive tests are only up by 5.5 per cent.
“We’re doing many more tests but we’re not getting as many positive results, which means that fewer people are potentially being affected,” said Dr Ilan Kelman, professor of disasters and health at the University of London.
“But everything else is absolutely awful, with deaths over seven days up 50 per cent, which is absolutely devastating.
"We’re basically seeing two fully loaded passenger jet crashes a day. We are looking at this level of deaths, or worse, for very likely at least the next four weeks."
Second-highest daily Covid death toll recorded
On Tuesday, 1,243 more deaths were recorded, the second highest ever daily total. Only the 1,325 recorded on Friday last week was higher.
The highest daily total on this measure during the first wave was 1,224 on April 21.
You have to make tough, objective decisions on who's going to do well in reality and who's not going to and you just have to make the latter comfortable
Dr Kelman said the latest figures suggest unnecessary cancer deaths could be in the “thousands,” as people go without the necessary treatment.
"It’s a grim period in Britain’s history and it’s terrible how much people are suffering,” he said.
With herd immunity months away, workers on the pandemic frontline are reporting the horrific decisions required of them in choosing who to put into intensive care, with limited beds available.
“You have to make tough, objective decisions on who’s going to do well in reality and who’s not going to, and you just have to make the latter comfortable,” a senior NHS medic said.
"This is our Second World War and we are dealing with casualties on a war-time scale.
"This is the battlefield as the new strain is an epidemic on top of a pandemic. I’d say we have another six weeks of seeing it get bad in terms of body count.”
One paramedic said it would soon get to the point where injured people are “left lying on the road” as few ambulances were available, or sick people were unwilling to go to hospital for fear of catching Covid-19.
It is also emotionally taxing.
“Usually when the paramedic arrives the patient feels that the emergency is over because we are there to deal with it," the medic said. "But that’s not the case any more.
"You can’t smile behind a face mask, you can’t hold hands and you can’t give much encouragement because very often people know what’s happening and what’s going to happen.
"Our arrival is not good news.”
Military brought in to help NHS in 'wartime' effort
The uniformed services are now being brought in to assist health staff. Firefighters, policemen and the military are being used in roles including ambulance drivers and medical assistants.
The death rate in England has led to emergency morgues being filled with scores of bodies stored at military sites before burial.
The senior health worker suggested that in future, all NHS staff should be trained in a secondary medical role so that they can help out in a national emergency.
“On a warship, a cook will be trained as a medic," they said.
"We should look to do the same thing because currently our numbers are thin, staff are exhausted and burning out. What happens if next year we get another emergency?”
UK a portent of things to come in Europe
There are concerns that while Britain is leading the way in Europe in deaths and vaccines, the continent could well be just weeks away from a similar surge in fatalities.
“It seems that the UK did very well in approving the vaccine faster than other places and is doing reasonably well at getting a vaccination programme running,” Prof Ackland said.
“So you would hope that the Europeans will look across at what’s happening here and figure out that it’s coming their way.
"On that basis, they should be very worried about a very high death rate.”
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THE SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Power: 110 horsepower
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MATCH INFO
Rugby World Cup (all times UAE)
Final: England v South Africa, Saturday, 1pm
Racecard
6.35pm: American Business Council – Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (Dirt) 1,600m
7.10pm: British Business Group – Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (D) 1,200m
7.45pm: CCI France UAE – Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (D) 1,400m
8.20pm: Czech Business Council – Rated Conditions (TB) Dh105,000 (D) 1,400m
8.55pm: Netherlands Business Council – Rated Conditions (TB) Dh95,000 (D) 1,600m
9.30pm: Indian Business and Professional Council – Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (D) 1,200m
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
What sanctions would be reimposed?
Under ‘snapback’, measures imposed on Iran by the UN Security Council in six resolutions would be restored, including:
- An arms embargo
- A ban on uranium enrichment and reprocessing
- A ban on launches and other activities with ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, as well as ballistic missile technology transfer and technical assistance
- A targeted global asset freeze and travel ban on Iranian individuals and entities
- Authorisation for countries to inspect Iran Air Cargo and Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines cargoes for banned goods
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Motori Profile
Date started: March 2020
Co-founder/CEO: Ahmed Eissa
Based: UAE, Abu Dhabi
Sector: Insurance Sector
Size: 50 full-time employees (Inside and Outside UAE)
Stage: Seed stage and seeking Series A round of financing
Investors: Safe City Group
The Facility’s Versatility
Between the start of the 2020 IPL on September 20, and the end of the Pakistan Super League this coming Thursday, the Zayed Cricket Stadium has had an unprecedented amount of traffic.
Never before has a ground in this country – or perhaps anywhere in the world – had such a volume of major-match cricket.
And yet scoring has remained high, and Abu Dhabi has seen some classic encounters in every format of the game.
October 18, IPL, Kolkata Knight Riders tied with Sunrisers Hyderabad
The two playoff-chasing sides put on 163 apiece, before Kolkata went on to win the Super Over
January 8, ODI, UAE beat Ireland by six wickets
A century by CP Rizwan underpinned one of UAE’s greatest ever wins, as they chased 270 to win with an over to spare
February 6, T10, Northern Warriors beat Delhi Bulls by eight wickets
The final of the T10 was chiefly memorable for a ferocious over of fast bowling from Fidel Edwards to Nicholas Pooran
March 14, Test, Afghanistan beat Zimbabwe by six wickets
Eleven wickets for Rashid Khan, 1,305 runs scored in five days, and a last session finish
June 17, PSL, Islamabad United beat Peshawar Zalmi by 15 runs
Usman Khawaja scored a hundred as Islamabad posted the highest score ever by a Pakistan team in T20 cricket
It Was Just an Accident
Director: Jafar Panahi
Stars: Vahid Mobasseri, Mariam Afshari, Ebrahim Azizi, Hadis Pakbaten, Majid Panahi, Mohamad Ali Elyasmehr
Rating: 4/5
The biog
Name: Shamsa Hassan Safar
Nationality: Emirati
Education: Degree in emergency medical services at Higher Colleges of Technology
Favourite book: Between two hearts- Arabic novels
Favourite music: Mohammed Abdu and modern Arabic songs
Favourite way to spend time off: Family visits and spending time with friends
Greatest Royal Rumble results
John Cena pinned Triple H in a singles match
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Jeff Hardy retained the United States title against Jinder Mahal
Bludgeon Brothers retain the SmackDown Tag Team titles against the Usos
Seth Rollins retains the Intercontinental title against The Miz, Finn Balor and Samoa Joe
AJ Styles remains WWE World Heavyweight champion after he and Shinsuke Nakamura are both counted out
The Undertaker beats Rusev in a casket match
Brock Lesnar retains the WWE Universal title against Roman Reigns in a steel cage match
Braun Strowman won the 50-man Royal Rumble by eliminating Big Cass last
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The specs
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In numbers: China in Dubai
The number of Chinese people living in Dubai: An estimated 200,000
Number of Chinese people in International City: Almost 50,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2018/19: 120,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2010: 20,000
Percentage increase in visitors in eight years: 500 per cent
Brief scores:
Toss: Kerala Knights, opted to fielf
Pakhtoons 109-5 (10 ov)
Fletcher 32; Lamichhane 3-17
Kerala Knights 110-2 (7.5 ov)
Morgan 46 not out, Stirling 40
Race card
4pm Al Bastakiya Listed US$300,000 (Dirt) 1,900m
4.35pm Mahab Al Shimaal Group 3 $350,000 (D) 1,200m
5.10pm Nad Al Sheba Turf Group 3 $350,000 (Turf) 1,200m
5.45pm Burj Nahaar Group 3 $350,000 (D) 1,600m
6.20pm Jebel Hatta Group 1 $400,000 (T) 1,800m
6.55pm Al Maktoum Challenge Round-3 Group 1 $600,000 (D) 2,000m
7.30pm Dubai City Of Gold Group 2 $350,000 (T) 2,410m
The National selections:
4pm Zabardast
4.35pm Ibn Malik
5.10pm Space Blues
5.45pm Kimbear
6.20pm Barney Roy
6.55pm Matterhorn
7.30pm Defoe
Match info
Newcastle United 1
Joselu (11')
Tottenham Hotspur 2
Vertonghen (8'), Alli (18')
LIKELY TEAMS
South Africa
Faf du Plessis (captain), Dean Elgar, Aiden Markram, Hashim Amla, AB de Villiers, Quinton de Kock (wkt), Vernon Philander, Keshav Maharaj, Kagiso Rabada, Morne Morkel, Lungi Ngidi.
India (from)
Virat Kohli (captain), Murali Vijay, Lokesh Rahul, Cheteshwar Pujara, Rohit Sharma, Ajinkya Rahane, Hardik Pandya, Dinesh Karthik (wkt), Ravichandran Ashwin, Bhuvneshwar Kumar, Ishant Sharma, Mohammad Shami, Jasprit Bumrah.
Citizenship-by-investment programmes
United Kingdom
The UK offers three programmes for residency. The UK Overseas Business Representative Visa lets you open an overseas branch office of your existing company in the country at no extra investment. For the UK Tier 1 Innovator Visa, you are required to invest £50,000 (Dh238,000) into a business. You can also get a UK Tier 1 Investor Visa if you invest £2 million, £5m or £10m (the higher the investment, the sooner you obtain your permanent residency).
All UK residency visas get approved in 90 to 120 days and are valid for 3 years. After 3 years, the applicant can apply for extension of another 2 years. Once they have lived in the UK for a minimum of 6 months every year, they are eligible to apply for permanent residency (called Indefinite Leave to Remain). After one year of ILR, the applicant can apply for UK passport.
The Caribbean
Depending on the country, the investment amount starts from $100,000 (Dh367,250) and can go up to $400,000 in real estate. From the date of purchase, it will take between four to five months to receive a passport.
Portugal
The investment amount ranges from €350,000 to €500,000 (Dh1.5m to Dh2.16m) in real estate. From the date of purchase, it will take a maximum of six months to receive a Golden Visa. Applicants can apply for permanent residency after five years and Portuguese citizenship after six years.
“Among European countries with residency programmes, Portugal has been the most popular because it offers the most cost-effective programme to eventually acquire citizenship of the European Union without ever residing in Portugal,” states Veronica Cotdemiey of Citizenship Invest.
Greece
The real estate investment threshold to acquire residency for Greece is €250,000, making it the cheapest real estate residency visa scheme in Europe. You can apply for residency in four months and citizenship after seven years.
Spain
The real estate investment threshold to acquire residency for Spain is €500,000. You can apply for permanent residency after five years and citizenship after 10 years. It is not necessary to live in Spain to retain and renew the residency visa permit.
Cyprus
Cyprus offers the quickest route to citizenship of a European country in only six months. An investment of €2m in real estate is required, making it the highest priced programme in Europe.
Malta
The Malta citizenship by investment programme is lengthy and investors are required to contribute sums as donations to the Maltese government. The applicant must either contribute at least €650,000 to the National Development & Social Fund. Spouses and children are required to contribute €25,000; unmarried children between 18 and 25 and dependent parents must contribute €50,000 each.
The second step is to make an investment in property of at least €350,000 or enter a property rental contract for at least €16,000 per annum for five years. The third step is to invest at least €150,000 in bonds or shares approved by the Maltese government to be kept for at least five years.
Candidates must commit to a minimum physical presence in Malta before citizenship is granted. While you get residency in two months, you can apply for citizenship after a year.
Egypt
A one-year residency permit can be bought if you purchase property in Egypt worth $100,000. A three-year residency is available for those who invest $200,000 in property, and five years for those who purchase property worth $400,000.
Source: Citizenship Invest and Aqua Properties
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TCL INFO
Teams:
Punjabi Legends Owners: Inzamam-ul-Haq and Intizar-ul-Haq; Key player: Misbah-ul-Haq
Pakhtoons Owners: Habib Khan and Tajuddin Khan; Key player: Shahid Afridi
Maratha Arabians Owners: Sohail Khan, Ali Tumbi, Parvez Khan; Key player: Virender Sehwag
Bangla Tigers Owners: Shirajuddin Alam, Yasin Choudhary, Neelesh Bhatnager, Anis and Rizwan Sajan; Key player: TBC
Colombo Lions Owners: Sri Lanka Cricket; Key player: TBC
Kerala Kings Owners: Hussain Adam Ali and Shafi Ul Mulk; Key player: Eoin Morgan
Venue Sharjah Cricket Stadium
Format 10 overs per side, matches last for 90 minutes
Timeline October 25: Around 120 players to be entered into a draft, to be held in Dubai; December 21: Matches start; December 24: Finals
Veil (Object Lessons)
Rafia Zakaria
Bloomsbury Academic
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Awar Qalb
Director: Jamal Salem
Starring: Abdulla Zaid, Joma Ali, Neven Madi and Khadija Sleiman
Two stars
The Brutalist
Director: Brady Corbet
Stars: Adrien Brody, Felicity Jones, Guy Pearce, Joe Alwyn
Rating: 3.5/5
MATCH INFO
Champions League quarter-final, first leg
Ajax v Juventus, Wednesday, 11pm (UAE)
Match on BeIN Sports
Disclaimer
Director: Alfonso Cuaron
Stars: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Kline, Lesley Manville
Rating: 4/5
