The fighting in Ukraine is most likely to develop into a “protracted but less intense war” in its third year, barring a Donald Trump-fuelled collapse in western aid, according to forecasters.
A year of “ongoing losses by both sides” but “no significant changes to the front lines” is the most likely of four scenarios for analysts at the Economist Intelligence Unit.
Such a scenario – assigned a 60 per cent probability – could involve weapons stocks on both sides running low but assumes western aid will not “collapse to a point that would tip the war” in favour of Russia.
A year of few breakthroughs would follow the pattern of recent months, in which a much-anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive was stalled by Russian fortifications and minefields.
Kyiv is lobbying for more aid to counter an increasingly assertive Russia, which threatened to shoot down Nato patrols over the Black Sea last month, French defence officials alleged on Thursday. Moscow's forces seized the Avdiivka chemical plant last week and claimed control of a bridgehead on the Dnipro river.
Analysts say prolonged fighting this year would put Ukraine's reconstruction on the back burner and make it harder to raise the money needed, estimated at close to $1 trillion.
“The best that can be hoped for is that the war becomes a lower-intensity and more localised conflict, preventing further damage in areas that to date have not been affected by the war,” the report says.
Trump effect
While Russia is seen as having “an advantage in arms and manpower”, boosted by supplies from Iran and North Korea, Nato powers have promised to assist Ukraine for “as long as it takes”.
However, analysts see a 30 per cent chance that a Trump return to the White House would prompt a sharp fall in US funding that culminates in Ukraine being forced into a truce.
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%3Cp%3E1.%20Protracted%20but%20less%20intense%20war%20(60%25%20likelihood)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E2.%20Negotiated%20end%20to%20the%20conflict%20(30%25)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E3.%20Russia%20seizes%20more%20territory%20(20%25)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E4.%20Ukraine%20pushes%20Russia%20back%20(10%25)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cem%3EForecast%20by%20Economist%20Intelligence%20Unit%3C%2Fem%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
In this scenario, Kyiv is negotiating “from a position of weakness” and a peace deal “formalises Russian control over some parts of Ukraine”, says the 10-page report marking two years since the invasion.
The predicted effect of this is that “geopolitical risk rises sharply” because Russian gains “send a powerful message to other governments with expansionist intentions”.
Russia has had to swallow losses to its Black Sea naval fleet and been hit by explosions deep beyond the front line but retains control of large swathes of territory seized after its invasion in February 2022.
Mr Trump's gravitational pull on US politics has already stalled military support for Ukraine in Congress before the November election has even taken place, with the former president opposing new aid.
However, analysts believe any Russian military gains, for instance in eastern Ukraine, would prompt a reaction from the US and Europe, making a total collapse of western support less likely.
“We believe that both the US and EU will find a way to keep aid flowing, because what happens in Ukraine has major geopolitical implications,” they wrote.
Major gains unlikely
A third scenario, in which Russia seizes land in southern and eastern Ukraine in a summer offensive, is assigned a 20 per cent likelihood.
This could either galvanise the US and its allies to rush through extra aid packages, or “sow divisions about the logic of sustaining a long-term war that Ukraine is unlikely to win”.
Forecasters see only a 10 per cent chance of significant Ukrainian gains, fuelled by economic problems and domestic dissent hampering Russia's war effort.
In this scenario “Ukraine spies an opportunity and pushes Russia back, retaking significant swathes of territory”.
This could also mean “the perception that Ukraine now has the upper hand mends divisions in the West and results in a drive towards extra aid, in a bid to push Russia out of Ukraine”.
Although analysts are pessimistic about Ukraine's chances of a breakthrough, a prolonged stalemate is “not without risks for Russia”, they said.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is all but certain to win a March election, though the death of jailed dissident Alexei Navalny has reignited anger over domestic repression in Russia.
“As the war drags on, domestic political constraints and rising inflation will increasingly spark social discontent,” the forecasters wrote.
“The Kremlin is willing to sacrifice as many men as needed in the conflict but there are already signs of unrest related to mobilisation efforts and the higher the losses, the greater the risk of pushback.”
UK leaders reiterate support for Ukraine
UK political leaders have marked the second anniversary of the war in Ukraine by vowing to stand with Kyiv “until they prevail”.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said “tyranny will never triumph” as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s troops defend the country against an emboldened Russia.
Mr Sunak said the UK is “going further in our support”, and Britain is prepared to do “whatever it takes, for as long as it takes”.
NINE WINLESS GAMES
Arsenal 2-2 Crystal Palace (Oct 27, PL)
Liverpool 5-5 Arsenal (Oct 30, EFL)
Arsenal 1-1 Wolves (Nov 02, PL)
Vitoria Guimaraes 1-1 Arsenal (Nov 6, Europa)
Leicester 2-0 Arsenal (Nov 9, PL)
Arsenal 2-2 Southampton (Nov 23, PL)
Arsenal 1-2 Eintracht Frankfurt (Nov 28, Europa)
Norwich 2-2 Arsenal (Dec 01, PL)
Arsenal 1-2 Brighton (Dec 05, PL)
Fight card
Preliminaries:
Nouredine Samir (UAE) v Sheroz Kholmirzav (UZB); Lucas Porst (SWE) v Ellis Barboza (GBR); Mouhmad Amine Alharar (MAR) v Mohammed Mardi (UAE); Ibrahim Bilal (UAE) v Spyro Besiri (GRE); Aslamjan Ortikov (UZB) v Joshua Ridgwell (GBR)
Main card:
Carlos Prates (BRA) v Dmitry Valent (BLR); Bobirjon Tagiev (UZB) v Valentin Thibaut (FRA); Arthur Meyer (FRA) v Hicham Moujtahid (BEL); Ines Es Salehy (BEL) v Myriame Djedidi (FRA); Craig Coakley (IRE) v Deniz Demirkapu (TUR); Artem Avanesov (ARM) v Badreddine Attif (MAR); Abdulvosid Buranov (RUS) v Akram Hamidi (FRA)
Title card:
Intercontinental Lightweight: Ilyass Habibali (UAE) v Angel Marquez (ESP)
Intercontinental Middleweight: Amine El Moatassime (UAE) v Francesco Iadanza (ITA)
Asian Featherweight: Zakaria El Jamari (UAE) v Phillip Delarmino (PHI)
Stamp%20duty%20timeline
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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%3Cp%3E%0D%3Cstrong%3EDiet%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%0D%3Cbr%3E7am%20-%20Protein%20shake%20with%20oats%20and%20fruits%0D%3Cbr%3E10am%20-%205-6%20egg%20whites%0D%3Cbr%3E1pm%20-%20White%20rice%20or%20chapati%20(Indian%20bread)%20with%20chicken%0D%3Cbr%3E4pm%20-%20Dry%20fruits%20%0D%3Cbr%3E7.30pm%20-%20Pre%20workout%20meal%20%E2%80%93%20grilled%20fish%20or%20chicken%20with%20veggies%20and%20fruits%0D%3Cbr%3E8.30pm%20to%20midnight%20workout%0D%3Cbr%3E12.30am%20%E2%80%93%20Protein%20shake%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETotal%20intake%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204000-4500%20calories%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESaidu%E2%80%99s%20weight%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20110%20kg%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStats%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Biceps%2019%20inches.%20Forearms%2018%20inches%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
1971: The Year The Music Changed Everything
Director: Asif Kapadia
4/5
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
Indoor Cricket World Cup - Sept 16-20, Insportz, Dubai
Results
3pm: Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 (Dirt) 1,000m; Winner: Dhafra, Antonio Fresu (jockey), Eric Lemartinel (trainer)
3.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh40,000 (D) 2,000m; Winner: Al Ajayib, Antonio Fresu, Eric Lemartinel
4pm: Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 (D) 1,700m; Winner: Ashtr, Abdul Aziz Al Balushi, Majed Al Jahouri
4.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh40,000 (D) 1,700m; Winner: Falcon Claws, Szczepan Mazur, Doug Watson
5pm: Sheikh Dr Sultan bin Khalifa Al Nahyan Cup – Prestige Handicap (PA) Dh100,000 (D) 1,700m; Winner: Al Mufham SB, Al Moatasem Al Balushi, Badar Al Hajri
5.30pm: Sharjah Marathon – Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (D) 2,700m; Winner: Asraa Min Al Talqa, Al Moatasem Al Balushi, Helal Al Alawi
Sanju
Produced: Vidhu Vinod Chopra, Rajkumar Hirani
Director: Rajkumar Hirani
Cast: Ranbir Kapoor, Vicky Kaushal, Paresh Rawal, Anushka Sharma, Manish’s Koirala, Dia Mirza, Sonam Kapoor, Jim Sarbh, Boman Irani
Rating: 3.5 stars
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
RESULTS
Dubai Kahayla Classic – Group 1 (PA) $750,000 (Dirt) 2,000m
Winner: Deryan, Ioritz Mendizabal (jockey), Didier Guillemin (trainer).
Godolphin Mile – Group 2 (TB) $750,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Secret Ambition, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar
Dubai Gold Cup – Group 2 (TB) $750,000 (Turf) 3,200m
Winner: Subjectivist, Joe Fanning, Mark Johnston
Al Quoz Sprint – Group 1 (TB) $1million (T) 1,200m
Winner: Extravagant Kid, Ryan Moore, Brendan Walsh
UAE Derby – Group 2 (TB) $750,000 (D) 1,900m
Winner: Rebel’s Romance, William Buick, Charlie Appleby
Dubai Golden Shaheen – Group 1 (TB) $1.5million (D) 1,200m
Winner: Zenden, Antonio Fresu, Carlos David
Dubai Turf – Group 1 (TB) $4million (T) 1,800m
Winner: Lord North, Frankie Dettori, John Gosden
Dubai Sheema Classic – Group 1 (TB) $5million (T) 2,410m
Winner: Mishriff, John Egan, John Gosden
Why are you, you?
Why are you, you?
From this question, a new beginning.
From this question, a new destiny.
For you are a world, and a meeting of worlds.
Our dream is to unite that which has been
separated by history.
To return the many to the one.
A great story unites us all,
beyond colour and creed and gender.
The lightning flash of art
And the music of the heart.
We reflect all cultures, all ways.
We are a twenty first century wonder.
Universal ideals, visions of art and truth.
Now is the turning point of cultures and hopes.
Come with questions, leave with visions.
We are the link between the past and the future.
Here, through art, new possibilities are born. And
new answers are given wings.
Why are you, you?
Because we are mirrors of each other.
Because together we create new worlds.
Together we are more powerful than we know.
We connect, we inspire, we multiply illuminations
with the unique light of art.
Ben Okri,
RESULTS
Bantamweight title:
Vinicius de Oliveira (BRA) bt Xavier Alaoui (MAR)
(KO round 2)
Catchweight 68kg:
Sean Soriano (USA) bt Noad Lahat (ISR)
(TKO round 1)
Middleweight:
Denis Tiuliulin (RUS) bt Juscelino Ferreira (BRA)
(TKO round 1)
Lightweight:
Anas Siraj Mounir (MAR) bt Joachim Tollefsen (DEN)
(Unanimous decision)
Catchweight 68kg:
Austin Arnett (USA) bt Daniel Vega (MEX)
(TKO round 3)
Lightweight:
Carrington Banks (USA) bt Marcio Andrade (BRA)
(Unanimous decision)
Catchweight 58kg:
Corinne Laframboise (CAN) bt Malin Hermansson (SWE)
(Submission round 2)
Bantamweight:
Jalal Al Daaja (CAN) bt Juares Dea (CMR)
(Split decision)
Middleweight:
Mohamad Osseili (LEB) bt Ivan Slynko (UKR)
(TKO round 1)
Featherweight:
Tarun Grigoryan (ARM) bt Islam Makhamadjanov (UZB)
(Unanimous decision)
Catchweight 54kg:
Mariagiovanna Vai (ITA) bt Daniella Shutov (ISR)
(Submission round 1)
Middleweight:
Joan Arastey (ESP) bt Omran Chaaban (LEB)
(Unanimous decision)
Welterweight:
Bruno Carvalho (POR) bt Souhil Tahiri (ALG)
(TKO)
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Profile of Udrive
Date started: March 2016
Founder: Hasib Khan
Based: Dubai
Employees: 40
Amount raised (to date): $3.25m – $750,000 seed funding in 2017 and a Seed round of $2.5m last year. Raised $1.3m from Eureeca investors in January 2021 as part of a Series A round with a $5m target.
The specs
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 502hp at 7,600rpm
Torque: 637Nm at 5,150rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch auto
Price: from Dh317,671
On sale: now
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPowertrain%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESingle%20electric%20motor%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E201hp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E310Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESingle-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E53kWh%20lithium-ion%20battery%20pack%20(GS%20base%20model)%3B%2070kWh%20battery%20pack%20(GF)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETouring%20range%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E350km%20(GS)%3B%20480km%20(GF)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh129%2C900%20(GS)%3B%20Dh149%2C000%20(GF)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
WHEN TO GO:
September to November or March to May; this is when visitors are most likely to see what they’ve come for.
WHERE TO STAY:
Meghauli Serai, A Taj Safari - Chitwan National Park resort (tajhotels.com) is a one-hour drive from Bharatpur Airport with stays costing from Dh1,396 per night, including taxes and breakfast. Return airport transfers cost from Dh661.
HOW TO GET THERE:
Etihad Airways regularly flies from Abu Dhabi to Kathmandu from around Dh1,500 per person return, including taxes. Buddha Air (buddhaair.com) and Yeti Airlines (yetiairlines.com) fly from Kathmandu to Bharatpur several times a day from about Dh660 return and the flight takes just 20 minutes. Driving is possible but the roads are hilly which means it will take you five or six hours to travel 148 kilometres.
ABU DHABI ORDER OF PLAY
Starting at 10am:
Daria Kasatkina v Qiang Wang
Veronika Kudermetova v Annet Kontaveit (10)
Maria Sakkari (9) v Anastasia Potapova
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova v Ons Jabeur (15)
Donna Vekic (16) v Bernarda Pera
Ekaterina Alexandrova v Zarina Diyas
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
Five famous companies founded by teens
There are numerous success stories of teen businesses that were created in college dorm rooms and other modest circumstances. Below are some of the most recognisable names in the industry:
- Facebook: Mark Zuckerberg and his friends started Facebook when he was a 19-year-old Harvard undergraduate.
- Dell: When Michael Dell was an undergraduate student at Texas University in 1984, he started upgrading computers for profit. He starting working full-time on his business when he was 19. Eventually, his company became the Dell Computer Corporation and then Dell Inc.
- Subway: Fred DeLuca opened the first Subway restaurant when he was 17. In 1965, Mr DeLuca needed extra money for college, so he decided to open his own business. Peter Buck, a family friend, lent him $1,000 and together, they opened Pete’s Super Submarines. A few years later, the company was rebranded and called Subway.
- Mashable: In 2005, Pete Cashmore created Mashable in Scotland when he was a teenager. The site was then a technology blog. Over the next few decades, Mr Cashmore has turned Mashable into a global media company.
- Oculus VR: Palmer Luckey founded Oculus VR in June 2012, when he was 19. In August that year, Oculus launched its Kickstarter campaign and raised more than $1 million in three days. Facebook bought Oculus for $2 billion two years later.
The specs
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: seven-speed
Power: 720hp
Torque: 770Nm
Price: Dh1,100,000
On sale: now
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
Four%20scenarios%20for%20Ukraine%20war
%3Cp%3E1.%20Protracted%20but%20less%20intense%20war%20(60%25%20likelihood)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E2.%20Negotiated%20end%20to%20the%20conflict%20(30%25)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E3.%20Russia%20seizes%20more%20territory%20(20%25)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E4.%20Ukraine%20pushes%20Russia%20back%20(10%25)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cem%3EForecast%20by%20Economist%20Intelligence%20Unit%3C%2Fem%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
