The fighting in Ukraine is most likely to develop into a “protracted but less intense war” in its third year, barring a Donald Trump-fuelled collapse in western aid, according to forecasters.
A year of “ongoing losses by both sides” but “no significant changes to the front lines” is the most likely of four scenarios for analysts at the Economist Intelligence Unit.
Such a scenario – assigned a 60 per cent probability – could involve weapons stocks on both sides running low but assumes western aid will not “collapse to a point that would tip the war” in favour of Russia.
A year of few breakthroughs would follow the pattern of recent months, in which a much-anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive was stalled by Russian fortifications and minefields.
Kyiv is lobbying for more aid to counter an increasingly assertive Russia, which threatened to shoot down Nato patrols over the Black Sea last month, French defence officials alleged on Thursday. Moscow's forces seized the Avdiivka chemical plant last week and claimed control of a bridgehead on the Dnipro river.
Analysts say prolonged fighting this year would put Ukraine's reconstruction on the back burner and make it harder to raise the money needed, estimated at close to $1 trillion.
“The best that can be hoped for is that the war becomes a lower-intensity and more localised conflict, preventing further damage in areas that to date have not been affected by the war,” the report says.
Trump effect
While Russia is seen as having “an advantage in arms and manpower”, boosted by supplies from Iran and North Korea, Nato powers have promised to assist Ukraine for “as long as it takes”.
However, analysts see a 30 per cent chance that a Trump return to the White House would prompt a sharp fall in US funding that culminates in Ukraine being forced into a truce.
Four%20scenarios%20for%20Ukraine%20war
%3Cp%3E1.%20Protracted%20but%20less%20intense%20war%20(60%25%20likelihood)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E2.%20Negotiated%20end%20to%20the%20conflict%20(30%25)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E3.%20Russia%20seizes%20more%20territory%20(20%25)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E4.%20Ukraine%20pushes%20Russia%20back%20(10%25)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cem%3EForecast%20by%20Economist%20Intelligence%20Unit%3C%2Fem%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
In this scenario, Kyiv is negotiating “from a position of weakness” and a peace deal “formalises Russian control over some parts of Ukraine”, says the 10-page report marking two years since the invasion.
The predicted effect of this is that “geopolitical risk rises sharply” because Russian gains “send a powerful message to other governments with expansionist intentions”.
Russia has had to swallow losses to its Black Sea naval fleet and been hit by explosions deep beyond the front line but retains control of large swathes of territory seized after its invasion in February 2022.
Mr Trump's gravitational pull on US politics has already stalled military support for Ukraine in Congress before the November election has even taken place, with the former president opposing new aid.
However, analysts believe any Russian military gains, for instance in eastern Ukraine, would prompt a reaction from the US and Europe, making a total collapse of western support less likely.
“We believe that both the US and EU will find a way to keep aid flowing, because what happens in Ukraine has major geopolitical implications,” they wrote.
Major gains unlikely
A third scenario, in which Russia seizes land in southern and eastern Ukraine in a summer offensive, is assigned a 20 per cent likelihood.
This could either galvanise the US and its allies to rush through extra aid packages, or “sow divisions about the logic of sustaining a long-term war that Ukraine is unlikely to win”.
Forecasters see only a 10 per cent chance of significant Ukrainian gains, fuelled by economic problems and domestic dissent hampering Russia's war effort.
In this scenario “Ukraine spies an opportunity and pushes Russia back, retaking significant swathes of territory”.
This could also mean “the perception that Ukraine now has the upper hand mends divisions in the West and results in a drive towards extra aid, in a bid to push Russia out of Ukraine”.
Although analysts are pessimistic about Ukraine's chances of a breakthrough, a prolonged stalemate is “not without risks for Russia”, they said.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is all but certain to win a March election, though the death of jailed dissident Alexei Navalny has reignited anger over domestic repression in Russia.
“As the war drags on, domestic political constraints and rising inflation will increasingly spark social discontent,” the forecasters wrote.
“The Kremlin is willing to sacrifice as many men as needed in the conflict but there are already signs of unrest related to mobilisation efforts and the higher the losses, the greater the risk of pushback.”
UK leaders reiterate support for Ukraine
UK political leaders have marked the second anniversary of the war in Ukraine by vowing to stand with Kyiv “until they prevail”.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said “tyranny will never triumph” as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s troops defend the country against an emboldened Russia.
Mr Sunak said the UK is “going further in our support”, and Britain is prepared to do “whatever it takes, for as long as it takes”.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
Specs%3A%202024%20McLaren%20Artura%20Spider
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203.0-litre%20twin-turbo%20V6%20and%20electric%20motor%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMax%20power%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20700hp%20at%207%2C500rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMax%20torque%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20720Nm%20at%202%2C250rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Eight-speed%20dual-clutch%20auto%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E0-100km%2Fh%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203.0sec%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETop%20speed%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E330kph%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20From%20Dh1.14%20million%20(%24311%2C000)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Final results:
Open men
Australia 94 (4) beat New Zealand 48 (0)
Plate men
England 85 (3) beat India 81 (1)
Open women
Australia 121 (4) beat South Africa 52 (0)
Under 22 men
Australia 68 (2) beat New Zealand 66 (2)
Under 22 women
Australia 92 (3) beat New Zealand 54 (1)
Sri Lanka Test squad:
Dimuth Karunaratne (stand-in captain), Niroshan Dickwella (vice captain), Lahiru Thirimanne, Kaushal Silva, Kusal Mendis, Kusal Janith Perera, Milinda Siriwardana, Dhananjaya de Silva, Oshada Fernando, Angelo Perera, Suranga Lakmal, Kasun Rajitha, Vishwa Fernando, Chamika Karunaratne, Mohamed Shiraz, Lakshan Sandakan and Lasith Embuldeniya.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20Quentin%20Tarantino%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20Uma%20Thurman%2C%20David%20Carradine%20and%20Michael%20Madsen%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%204.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
One in nine do not have enough to eat
Created in 1961, the World Food Programme is pledged to fight hunger worldwide as well as providing emergency food assistance in a crisis.
One of the organisation’s goals is the Zero Hunger Pledge, adopted by the international community in 2015 as one of the 17 Sustainable Goals for Sustainable Development, to end world hunger by 2030.
The WFP, a branch of the United Nations, is funded by voluntary donations from governments, businesses and private donations.
Almost two thirds of its operations currently take place in conflict zones, where it is calculated that people are more than three times likely to suffer from malnutrition than in peaceful countries.
It is currently estimated that one in nine people globally do not have enough to eat.
On any one day, the WFP estimates that it has 5,000 lorries, 20 ships and 70 aircraft on the move.
Outside emergencies, the WFP provides school meals to up to 25 million children in 63 countries, while working with communities to improve nutrition. Where possible, it buys supplies from developing countries to cut down transport cost and boost local economies.
Results
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStage%206%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E1.%20Tim%20Merlier%20(BEL)%20Soudal%20Quick-Step%20%E2%80%93%203hrs%2041min%2012sec.%3Cbr%3E2.%20Sam%20Bennett%20(GBR)%20Bora%20%E2%80%93%20Hansgrohe%20%E2%80%93%20ST%3Cbr%3E3.%20Dylan%20Groenewegen%20(NED)%20Team%20Jayco%20Alula%20%E2%80%93%20ST%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EGeneral%20classification%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E1.%20Remco%20Evenepoel%20(BEL)%20Soudal%20Quick-Step%3Cbr%3E2.%20Lucas%20Plapp%20(AUS)%20Ineos%20Grenaders%20%E2%80%93%209sec%3Cbr%3E3.%20Pello%20Bilbao%20(ESP)%20Bahrain%20Victorious%20%E2%80%93%2013sec%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Emergency
Director: Kangana Ranaut
Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Anupam Kher, Shreyas Talpade, Milind Soman, Mahima Chaudhry
Rating: 2/5
Superpower%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESean%20Penn%2C%20Aaron%20Kaufman%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E3%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDirect%20Debit%20System%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Sept%202017%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20UAE%20with%20a%20subsidiary%20in%20the%20UK%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20FinTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Undisclosed%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Elaine%20Jones%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%208%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Asia Cup 2018 Qualifier
Sunday's results:
- UAE beat Malaysia by eight wickets
- Nepal beat Singapore by four wickets
- Oman v Hong Kong, no result
Tuesday fixtures:
- Malaysia v Singapore
- UAE v Oman
- Nepal v Hong Kong
BIGGEST CYBER SECURITY INCIDENTS IN RECENT TIMES
SolarWinds supply chain attack: Came to light in December 2020 but had taken root for several months, compromising major tech companies, governments and its entities
Microsoft Exchange server exploitation: March 2021; attackers used a vulnerability to steal emails
Kaseya attack: July 2021; ransomware hit perpetrated REvil, resulting in severe downtime for more than 1,000 companies
Log4j breach: December 2021; attackers exploited the Java-written code to inflitrate businesses and governments
The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
On sale: Now
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDate%20started%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202020%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Khaldoon%20Bushnaq%20and%20Tariq%20Seksek%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Abu%20Dhabi%20Global%20Market%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20HealthTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20100%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%20to%20date%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2415%20million%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
More on animal trafficking
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EWest%20Asia%20Premiership%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Dubai%20Tigers%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Bahrain%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20Premiership%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Jebel%20Ali%20Dragons%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Dubai%20Hurricanes%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20Division%201%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Dubai%20Sharks%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Abu%20Dhabi%20Harlequins%20II%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20Division%202%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Dubai%20Tigers%20III%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Dubai%20Sharks%20II%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDubai%20Sevens%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Dubai%20Tigers%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Dubai%20Hurricanes%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Four%20scenarios%20for%20Ukraine%20war
%3Cp%3E1.%20Protracted%20but%20less%20intense%20war%20(60%25%20likelihood)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E2.%20Negotiated%20end%20to%20the%20conflict%20(30%25)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E3.%20Russia%20seizes%20more%20territory%20(20%25)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E4.%20Ukraine%20pushes%20Russia%20back%20(10%25)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cem%3EForecast%20by%20Economist%20Intelligence%20Unit%3C%2Fem%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
