Ukrainian soldiers fire a grenade launcher towards Russian positions on the front line near Kreminna, Luhansk region. AP
Ukrainian soldiers fire a grenade launcher towards Russian positions on the front line near Kreminna, Luhansk region. AP
Ukrainian soldiers fire a grenade launcher towards Russian positions on the front line near Kreminna, Luhansk region. AP
Ukrainian soldiers fire a grenade launcher towards Russian positions on the front line near Kreminna, Luhansk region. AP

Ukraine counter-offensive against Russia a 'score draw'


Thomas Harding
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The Ukraine counter-offensive has made advances but also suffered setbacks in the very early phases, a leading military analyst has told The National.

Gen Sir Richard Barrons said Kyiv’s Nato-equipped brigades were being tested under fire for the first time and the “jury’s still out” on how successful they will be fighting high-intensity warfare.

Using football terminology, he described progress so far as a “score draw”.

He also sounded a warning over western “optimism bias” in thinking that Russia’s forces would quickly collapse.

“I would need to see Russians legging it and not just the conscripts but their harder forces legging it in the face of an overwhelming Ukrainian attack and I have not seen that yet, but it's still very early days,” he said.

With virtually no independent reporting from the front lines and Kyiv maintaining a strict policy of silence, assessing whether Ukraine was having success in penetrating Russian defences to drive out occupying forces is difficult.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has refused to confirm his counter-offensive plans.

However, it is now clear that Ukraine is advancing on the Russian lines in three different areas but with carefully prepared defences, the most extensive seen in Europe since the Second World War.

They have been met strong resistance.

General Sir Richard Barrons. Photo: Wikimedia Commons
General Sir Richard Barrons. Photo: Wikimedia Commons

Russia’s regular army has been able to repel some of the Ukraine advances made in the Zaporizhzhia region, south of Donetsk and around Bakhmut in the east.

Ukraine has said little about the clashes but Moscow reported repelling attacks with ground and air forces.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Ukraine had begun a major offensive against Russia's army but it had failed to achieve its objectives, despite intense fighting over at least three days.

“We can state for sure that this offensive has begun. This is evidenced by the use of strategic reserves of the Ukrainian army,” Mr Putin told Russian reporters in Sochi. “Ukrainian troops did not achieve their goals in any sector.”

Mr Putin said fighting had been very intense over the past three days but that “the enemy did not have success” in any of the battles.

A Ukrainian military success in the Zaporizhzhia region would enable its forces to break through the land bridge that connects Russia with the Crimean peninsula, which was annexed from Ukraine. This would be a major reverse for Moscow.

But the Russian army in recent months has strengthened its front lines in the region, digging kilometres of trenches and fortifying its defences.

“Ukraine’s forces have not broken through because they are encountering belts of trenches and obstacles, supported by pre-planned artillery fire and crucially linked to planned rapid counter-attacks which is the key to defence,” said Gen Barrons, the UK’s former chief of Joint Forces Command.

Having broken through the first line of defences, that at points stretch 25 kilometres deep, the Ukrainian forces have taken casualties, used ammunition and lost some cohesion.

A Ukrainian serviceman fires a rocket launcher during a military training exercise not far from front line in Donetsk region. AFP
A Ukrainian serviceman fires a rocket launcher during a military training exercise not far from front line in Donetsk region. AFP

“At that moment of vulnerability, you launch a pre-planned counter attack with your best troops,” he said.

“This is a combination of artillery to isolate the attackers and cut them off from reinforcement, then tanks and infantry that come forward basically to make them leave, which they did.

“The competence of the counter-attack indicates that some of Russia's better troops have been put there rather than conscripts.”

The counter-offensive is ultimately expected to involve thousands of Ukrainian troops trained and equipped by the West.

Ukraine has nine armoured brigades equipped with modern Leopard 2 and Challenger II tanks, along with Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and three brigades equipped with Russia-era tanks.

All will come with artillery, combat engineers and mobile air defence using every asset in combined arms warfare. The total attack force is estimated at 50,000, in addition to the 200,000 Ukrainians manning their front line.

But it is the first time the new brigades will have been in action together. Gen Barrons, who served on combat operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, suggested that they would initially be “blooded on an achievable task”.

“They then get used to the idea of people being killed and what it really feels like being under fire, that hardens them and then you can give them a stiffer challenge – as long as the brigade has survived.”

Ukraine and Russia conflict latest – in pictures

He added that no amount of training “makes up for being under fire properly” or can “replicate the enemy vote”.

After learning from setbacks in their February 2022 invasion, the Russians had also “learnt to fight the defence better”, which included connecting drones to artillery to bring down accurate fire.

“And they've had time to rehearse,” he added.

There have also been reports that Ukraine has already lost two Leopard 2A4 tanks to Russian fire.

“Nato armour is not completely invulnerable,” the general said.

“This is normal. The critical question is, will Ukraine’s offensive force with its Nato equipment be good enough to break through Russian defence or not? We don't know how good they are with it yet, but we expect that they are really up for the fight.”

Kyiv’s two thrusts in the south began at about 2am on Thursday and the brigades would probably be capable of offensive action until Monday.

“You can run a brigade into the ground over about five days, because there's not much sleep, and they take casualties,” the officer said.

Early next week, it will be down to another brigade to echelon through giving the initial brigade a chance to rest and rearm before continuing the fight.

“This is a battle that could take weeks and will come in fits and starts,” he said.

While the attacks on Bakhmut are likely to be more diversionary, the Ukraine plan is likely to push directly south down through the Zaporizhzhia region to reach the Sea of Azov ports.

Key will be cutting off the annexed Crimea peninsula that would put severe pressure on Moscow.

Gen Barrons suggested that the growing offensive would culminate in three different ways.

“It could fail absolutely, or be a Pyrrhic victory, where they take some ground but the cost is not repeatable or it could but very unlikely result in the entire rout of the Russian occupation by Christmas.”

A realistic assessment would be for Ukraine to demonstrate that “battlefield success is possible” but even penetrating the Russian front line was “not going to end the war”.

“The Russians are not going to give up and go home so we should stop obsessing about the ebb and flow,” he said.

A Ukrainian pilot prepares to take off to carry out a mission in a Mi-24 attack helicopter. Reuters
A Ukrainian pilot prepares to take off to carry out a mission in a Mi-24 attack helicopter. Reuters

The “vital question” was what happens if Ukraine was “sufficiently successful”.

“It will then dawn on everyone that it’s going to be a very long war and both Europe and the US will have to ramp up their industrial mobilisation to match their rhetoric,” he said.

“It makes no sense to conduct this attack if at the end of it you can do no more.”

Brig Ben Barry, of the IISS think tank, argued that if Ukraine was able to perform a substantial breach of the Russian lines it could “roll up” the positions from the rear.

He highlighted the 1973 Yom Kippur War, when the Israelis managed to break through Egyptian defences on the Suez Canal, allowing them to pour several divisions through that destroyed the air defences in the rear.

He added that the recent deployment of Britain’s Storm Shadow missile will also have a significant impact.

“It is so important because it has a big warhead that can really penetrate concrete bunkers and explode inside,” he said.

“Suddenly the Russian tactical air commander has got to worry that his airbases are vulnerable to attack.”

He also argued that a key differential was morale.

“That is in the fighting spirit, leadership, planning, command and control and so far in the war Ukraine has shown itself considerably superior in that.”

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Libya's Gold

UN Panel of Experts found regime secretly sold a fifth of the country's gold reserves. 

The panel’s 2017 report followed a trail to West Africa where large sums of cash and gold were hidden by Abdullah Al Senussi, Qaddafi’s former intelligence chief, in 2011.

Cases filled with cash that was said to amount to $560m in 100 dollar notes, that was kept by a group of Libyans in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.

A second stash was said to have been held in Accra, Ghana, inside boxes at the local offices of an international human rights organisation based in France.

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How to watch Ireland v Pakistan in UAE

When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11
What time: Each day’s play is scheduled to start at 2pm UAE time.
TV: The match will be broadcast on OSN Sports Cricket HD. Subscribers to the channel can also stream the action live on OSN Play.

The smuggler

Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple. 
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.

Khouli conviction

Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.

For sale

A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.

- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico

- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000

- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950

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Education: Medical degree from the Government Medical College in Nagpur

How it all began: opened his first clinic in Ajman in 1993

Family: a 90-year-old mother, wife and two daughters

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THE BIO

Favourite car: Koenigsegg Agera RS or Renault Trezor concept car.

Favourite book: I Am Pilgrim by Terry Hayes or Red Notice by Bill Browder.

Biggest inspiration: My husband Nik. He really got me through a lot with his positivity.

Favourite holiday destination: Being at home in Australia, as I travel all over the world for work. It’s great to just hang out with my husband and family.

 

 

'The worst thing you can eat'

Trans fat is typically found in fried and baked goods, but you may be consuming more than you think.

Powdered coffee creamer, microwave popcorn and virtually anything processed with a crust is likely to contain it, as this guide from Mayo Clinic outlines: 

Baked goods - Most cakes, cookies, pie crusts and crackers contain shortening, which is usually made from partially hydrogenated vegetable oil. Ready-made frosting is another source of trans fat.

Snacks - Potato, corn and tortilla chips often contain trans fat. And while popcorn can be a healthy snack, many types of packaged or microwave popcorn use trans fat to help cook or flavour the popcorn.

Fried food - Foods that require deep frying — french fries, doughnuts and fried chicken — can contain trans fat from the oil used in the cooking process.

Refrigerator dough - Products such as canned biscuits and cinnamon rolls often contain trans fat, as do frozen pizza crusts.

Creamer and margarine - Nondairy coffee creamer and stick margarines also may contain partially hydrogenated vegetable oils.

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Opening Premier League fixtures, August 14
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  • Everton v Southampton
  • Leicester City v Wolves
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  • Norwich City v Liverpool
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Other ways to buy used products in the UAE

UAE insurance firm Al Wathba National Insurance Company (AWNIC) last year launched an e-commerce website with a facility enabling users to buy car wrecks.

Bidders and potential buyers register on the online salvage car auction portal to view vehicles, review condition reports, or arrange physical surveys, and then start bidding for motors they plan to restore or harvest for parts.

Physical salvage car auctions are a common method for insurers around the world to move on heavily damaged vehicles, but AWNIC is one of the few UAE insurers to offer such services online.

For cars and less sizeable items such as bicycles and furniture, Dubizzle is arguably the best-known marketplace for pre-loved.

Founded in 2005, in recent years it has been joined by a plethora of Facebook community pages for shifting used goods, including Abu Dhabi Marketplace, Flea Market UAE and Arabian Ranches Souq Market while sites such as The Luxury Closet and Riot deal largely in second-hand fashion.

At the high-end of the pre-used spectrum, resellers such as Timepiece360.ae, WatchBox Middle East and Watches Market Dubai deal in authenticated second-hand luxury timepieces from brands such as Rolex, Hublot and Tag Heuer, with a warranty.

A little about CVRL

Founded in 1985 by Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, Vice President and Ruler of Dubai, the Central Veterinary Research Laboratory (CVRL) is a government diagnostic centre that provides testing and research facilities to the UAE and neighbouring countries.

One of its main goals is to provide permanent treatment solutions for veterinary related diseases. 

The taxidermy centre was established 12 years ago and is headed by Dr Ulrich Wernery. 

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The flights

Direct flights from the UAE to the Nepalese capital, Kathmandu, are available with Air Arabia, (www.airarabia.com) Fly Dubai (www.flydubai.com) or Etihad (www.etihad.com) from Dh1,200 return including taxes. The trek described here started from Jomson, but there are many other start and end point variations depending on how you tailor your trek. To get to Jomson from Kathmandu you must first fly to the lake-side resort town of Pokhara with either Buddha Air (www.buddhaair.com) or Yeti Airlines (www.yetiairlines.com). Both charge around US$240 (Dh880) return. From Pokhara there are early morning flights to Jomson with Yeti Airlines or Simrik Airlines (www.simrikairlines.com) for around US$220 (Dh800) return. 

The trek

Restricted area permits (US$500 per person) are required for trekking in the Upper Mustang area. The challenging Meso Kanto pass between Tilcho Lake and Jomson should not be attempted by those without a lot of mountain experience and a good support team. An excellent trekking company with good knowledge of Upper Mustang, the Annaurpuna Circuit and Tilcho Lake area and who can help organise a version of the trek described here is the Nepal-UK run Snow Cat Travel (www.snowcattravel.com). Prices vary widely depending on accommodation types and the level of assistance required. 

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Saturday: Australia v New Zealand, Sydney, 1pm (UAE)
Sunday: South Africa v Argentina, Port Elizabeth, 11pm (UAE)

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34 - Ciro Immobile (68)

31 - Cristiano Ronaldo (62)

28 - Timo Werner (56)

25 - Lionel Messi (50)

*29 - Erling Haaland (50)

23 - Romelu Lukaku (46)

23 - Jamie Vardy (46)

*NOTE: Haaland's goals for Salzburg count for 1.5 points per goal. Goals for Dortmund count for two points per goal.

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Company profile

Company: Verity

Date started: May 2021

Founders: Kamal Al-Samarrai, Dina Shoman and Omar Al Sharif

Based: Dubai

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Updated: June 09, 2023, 3:50 PM`