Shelling in Chasiv Yar, near Bakhmut. The bridge connecting the Ukrainian city and town has reportedly been destroyed. AP
Shelling in Chasiv Yar, near Bakhmut. The bridge connecting the Ukrainian city and town has reportedly been destroyed. AP
Shelling in Chasiv Yar, near Bakhmut. The bridge connecting the Ukrainian city and town has reportedly been destroyed. AP
Shelling in Chasiv Yar, near Bakhmut. The bridge connecting the Ukrainian city and town has reportedly been destroyed. AP

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Europe

Russia far from surrounding Bakhmut, US analysts claim

ISW believes Ukraine is considering controlled withdrawal from key eastern city

Laura O'Callaghan
Laura O'Callaghan

March 05, 2023

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Russian forces are unlikely to encircle Bakhmut any time soon, US-based military analysts have said, days after the Wagner Group claimed to have pushed into the centre of the eastern Ukrainian city.

Fighters loyal to Kyiv may be considering a “controlled” withdrawal from the city, analysts say.

The battle for the city in the Donetsk region continued on Sunday after UK observers suggested the Russians had advanced in the northern suburbs.

But days after the head of the Wagner Group of Russian mercenaries claimed his men had “practically surrounded Bakhmut”, intelligence from an American group suggested otherwise.

"Russian forces appear to have secured a sufficient positional advantage to conduct a turning movement against parts of Bakhmut but have not yet forced Ukrainian forces to withdraw and will not likely be able to encircle the city soon," the Institute for the Study of War tweeted.

The ISW said forces loyal to Moscow had not yet forced Ukrainian troops to abandon Bakhmut and were unlikely to encircle the city, let alone take it by frontal assault.

Moscow’s progress in the Donetsk city remains incremental, the ISW said in an update, with some of parts of the city under threat, while Ukrainian forces may be setting conditions for a controlled fighting withdrawal out of particularly difficult areas.

Bakhmut, which had a prewar population of about 70,000, has been the scene of some of the war’s most intense fighting in recent weeks and months.

If taken by Russia, it would represent the invaders’ first major battleground gain in more than six months.

Ukraine’s armed forces said Russian troops were focussed on cutting off the besieged city.

The UK Ministry of Defence on Saturday said two key bridges in Bakhmut were destroyed within a 36-hour period, and that Ukrainian-held resupply routes out of the city were becoming increasingly limited.

One of those bridges had connected Bakhmut to the Ukrainian-held town of Chasiv Yar, about 13km to the west, it said.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the Wagner Group, had earlier appeared in a video claiming fighters had surrounded Bakhmut.

The mercenary force published a video showing what Mr Prigozhin said were coffins containing bodies of Ukrainian soldiers being repatriated to territory held by Kyiv.

Meanwhile, Sergei Shoigu, the Russian Defence Minister, made a rare visit to Russian troops in Donetsk, according to a video released by his ministry.

Mr Shoigu “paid special attention to the creation of necessary conditions for the safe accommodation of personnel in field conditions”, the ministry said.

Top commanders of the invasion of Ukraine, which Russia refers to as a "special military operation", had briefed Mr Shoigu on the current situation and action plans, his ministry said on Sunday.

The conversation around western nations' aid for Ukraine has shifted from conventional weaponry to fighter jets in recent weeks.

During an address to the UK Parliament last month, Ukrainian Volodymyr Zelenskyy appealed to Britain to "give us wings".

The US is working with two Ukrainian pilots at a base in Arizona to determine how long it would take to train them to fly F-16 fighter jets, CNN reported, citing people briefed on the matter.

Washington announced $400 million (£332 million) in ammunition and supplies for Ukraine in its latest package.

Support for Ukraine on anniversary of Russian invasion - in pictures

Supporters hold a Ukrainian flag at a solidarity march to mark the first anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, in Budapest, Hungary. Reuters
Supporters hold a Ukrainian flag at a solidarity march to mark the first anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, in Budapest, Hungary. Reuters
A protest to mark the one-year anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, in Berlin. Reuters
A protest to mark the one-year anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, in Berlin. Reuters
Supporters in front of Helsinki Cathedral during Light for Ukraine candlelight memorial event at Senate Square in Helsinki, Finland. Reuters
Supporters in front of Helsinki Cathedral during Light for Ukraine candlelight memorial event at Senate Square in Helsinki, Finland. Reuters
Representatives stand for a moment of silence during the United Nations Security Council meeting on the maintenance of peace and security of Ukraine at the UN headquarters in New York. AFP
Representatives stand for a moment of silence during the United Nations Security Council meeting on the maintenance of peace and security of Ukraine at the UN headquarters in New York. AFP
Britain's Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and his wife Akshata Murty, with Ukrainian ambassador to the UK Vadym Prystaiko, centre, his wife Inna and members of the Ukrainian Armed Forces outside 10 Downing Street in London, as they observe a minute's silence. AP
Britain's Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and his wife Akshata Murty, with Ukrainian ambassador to the UK Vadym Prystaiko, centre, his wife Inna and members of the Ukrainian Armed Forces outside 10 Downing Street in London, as they observe a minute's silence. AP
The Portuguese Parliament is lit with the blue and yellow of the Ukrainian flag, in Lisbon AP
The Portuguese Parliament is lit with the blue and yellow of the Ukrainian flag, in Lisbon AP
The Tokyo Metropolitan Government building is lit with the Ukraine national flag colours. Getty Images
The Tokyo Metropolitan Government building is lit with the Ukraine national flag colours. Getty Images
Supporters carry Ukrainian flags during a demonstration in Bangkok. EPA
Supporters carry Ukrainian flags during a demonstration in Bangkok. EPA
Ukrainian volunteers take part in prayers and observe a minute of silence, in south-east England. Getty
Ukrainian volunteers take part in prayers and observe a minute of silence, in south-east England. Getty
Protesters near the Russian embassy in Seoul, South Korea. EPA
Protesters near the Russian embassy in Seoul, South Korea. EPA
People lay flowers at a monument of Ukrainian poet, writer, artist, public and political figure Taras Shevchenko, in Almaty, Kazakhstan. AFP
People lay flowers at a monument of Ukrainian poet, writer, artist, public and political figure Taras Shevchenko, in Almaty, Kazakhstan. AFP
The Eiffel Tower in Paris is lit up in the colours of Ukrainian flag. EPA
The Eiffel Tower in Paris is lit up in the colours of Ukrainian flag. EPA
Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo speaks alongside the Ukrainian ambassador to France, Vadym Omelchenko, during the event. AFP
Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo speaks alongside the Ukrainian ambassador to France, Vadym Omelchenko, during the event. AFP
Watching video-mapping on the Czech Interior Ministry building, in Prague. EPA
Watching video-mapping on the Czech Interior Ministry building, in Prague. EPA
A woman expresses her solidarity with Ukraine at the Czech National Theatre, in Prague. EPA
A woman expresses her solidarity with Ukraine at the Czech National Theatre, in Prague. EPA
Activists place candles forming the peace sign in front of the Brandenburg Gate, in Berlin. AP
Activists place candles forming the peace sign in front of the Brandenburg Gate, in Berlin. AP
A police officer raises the Ukrainian flag in front of the state parliament of Saxony-Anhalt in Magdeburg, Germany. AP
A police officer raises the Ukrainian flag in front of the state parliament of Saxony-Anhalt in Magdeburg, Germany. AP
A Vilnius University building is illuminated in blue and yellow in support of Ukraine, in Vilnius, Lithuania. AP
A Vilnius University building is illuminated in blue and yellow in support of Ukraine, in Vilnius, Lithuania. AP
Ukrainian flags placed over the graves of fallen Ukrainian soldiers in a military cemetery in Kharkiv, north-eastern Ukraine. EPA
Ukrainian flags placed over the graves of fallen Ukrainian soldiers in a military cemetery in Kharkiv, north-eastern Ukraine. EPA
A commemoration event with a light installation at the Field of Mars cemetery where hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers are buried, in Lviv, western Ukraine. Getty
A commemoration event with a light installation at the Field of Mars cemetery where hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers are buried, in Lviv, western Ukraine. Getty
Friends and relatives of fallen Ukrainian soldiers take part in a prayer as Rays of Memory illuminate the night sky over Lychakiv military cemetery in Lviv. EPA
Friends and relatives of fallen Ukrainian soldiers take part in a prayer as Rays of Memory illuminate the night sky over Lychakiv military cemetery in Lviv. EPA
Rays of memory illuminate the sky over Lychakiv military cemetery in Lviv. EPA
Rays of memory illuminate the sky over Lychakiv military cemetery in Lviv. EPA
The National Opera of Ukraine building illuminated by Swiss artist Gerry Hofstetter in the colours of the Ukrainian flag, in Kyiv. Getty
The National Opera of Ukraine building illuminated by Swiss artist Gerry Hofstetter in the colours of the Ukrainian flag, in Kyiv. Getty
A woman takes selfies in front of The National Opera of Ukraine, illuminated by Swiss artist Gerry Hofstetter. Getty
A woman takes selfies in front of The National Opera of Ukraine, illuminated by Swiss artist Gerry Hofstetter. Getty
A candlelit vigil in front of the Russian consulate, in New York. Reuters
A candlelit vigil in front of the Russian consulate, in New York. Reuters
Candles lit outside the Russian consulate in New York during a vigil to commemorate children killed in Ukraine. AFP
Candles lit outside the Russian consulate in New York during a vigil to commemorate children killed in Ukraine. AFP
A silent candlelit vigil in New York. Reuters
A silent candlelit vigil in New York. Reuters
A Trafalgar Square vigil organised by the Ukrainian and US embassies in London. AP
A Trafalgar Square vigil organised by the Ukrainian and US embassies in London. AP
A vigil for Ukraine at Trafalgar Square in London. Reuters
A vigil for Ukraine at Trafalgar Square in London. Reuters
The Trafalgar Square vigil. Reuters
The Trafalgar Square vigil. Reuters
Crowds gather at Trafalgar Square. AP
Crowds gather at Trafalgar Square. AP
The Ukrainian ambassador to the UK, Vadym Prystaiko, addresses the London vigil. Reuters
The Ukrainian ambassador to the UK, Vadym Prystaiko, addresses the London vigil. Reuters
British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace speaks at the vigil. PA
British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace speaks at the vigil. PA
Actress and activist Helen Mirren addresses the London vigil. PA
Actress and activist Helen Mirren addresses the London vigil. PA
Teddy bears and other toys left by Ukrainian refugees and members of the Avaaz global activist network at Schuman Roundabout, in front of the European Commission, in Brussels. AP
Teddy bears and other toys left by Ukrainian refugees and members of the Avaaz global activist network at Schuman Roundabout, in front of the European Commission, in Brussels. AP
The EU Council and Commission buildings illuminated in the colours of the Ukrainian flag. EPA
The EU Council and Commission buildings illuminated in the colours of the Ukrainian flag. EPA
Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine Andriy Pyshnyi holds banknotes marking the first anniversary of Russia's invasion on Ukraine, in Kyiv. Reuters
Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine Andriy Pyshnyi holds banknotes marking the first anniversary of Russia's invasion on Ukraine, in Kyiv. Reuters
Supporters gather at St Mary's Cathedral Square during the 365 Days Strong rally and candlelight vigil in Sydney. Getty
Supporters gather at St Mary's Cathedral Square during the 365 Days Strong rally and candlelight vigil in Sydney. Getty
France's ambassador to Ukrain Etienne de Poncins, left, and the French Culture Minister Rima Abdul-Malak visit Independence Square in central Kyiv. AFP
France's ambassador to Ukrain Etienne de Poncins, left, and the French Culture Minister Rima Abdul-Malak visit Independence Square in central Kyiv. AFP
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