Food affordability, not availability, will become an increasing problem for the Middle East, North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa in 2024 because of uncertain crop yields in the world’s biggest producing regions, including Ukraine, a senior EU official told The National.
John Clarke, director for international affairs in the European Commission's directorate general for agriculture and rural development, said he expected that Europe will not be able to produce as much grain as it has in the past two to three years.
The European Commission is the European Union's executive arm.
Mr Clarke said he expected cereal prices to remain stable in 2023 but to increase in 2024.
Fears of a huge disruption to grain supplies after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 were assuaged by a record harvest in Canada last year. Before the war, Russia and Ukraine together supplied 30 per cent and 20 per cent of global wheat and maize exports respectively, according to a UN report published last month.
Market intelligence and rating agency S&P Global said in a 2023 commodities report last month that Canada is expected to harvest 33.8 million metric tonnes of wheat in the marketing year 2022-2023, 51.5 per cent higher on the year, according to Statistics Canada Data.
A surge in global cereal prices was also limited by agreements brokered by world powers that enabled Ukraine to export parts of its wheat production despite the war, Mr Clarke said. “The positive news is that global cereal prices have gone back almost to normal and that’s very good news for the Middle East and North Africa,” he said.
Such agreements include the Black Sea Initiative ― agreed in July between Moscow and Kyiv brokered by the United Nations and Turkey to unblock exports stuck at Ukrainian ports ― and so-called “solidarity lanes”, a mechanism set up in May by Brussels to help Ukraine export its products through its land borders with Poland and Romania.
But fears remain that an escalation of the conflict in Ukraine could reduce grain production in 2024, which will drive prices up and hurt import-dependant developing countries. And there is no certainty that Canada’s 2023 yields will be as high as last year’s while question marks hang over the upcoming Latin American harvest.
“The problem is the affordability [of food], which will be an issue for some Mena countries, for sub-Saharan Africa, for Pakistan and Bangladesh,” Mr Clarke said.
Simulations made by the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation show that a sudden and steep reduction in grain and sunflower seed exports by the two countries may be only partially compensated by the release of stocks during the 2022-2023 marketing season.
In a moderate scenario, the world wheat price would increase by 8.7 per cent, but in case of a more severe shock to global grain and oilseed markets, the increase in price is estimated at 21.5 per cent, according to the UN report, titled “The state of food security and nutrition in the world 2022”.
Vulnerable populations in sub-Saharan Africa, the Near East and North Africa are the most at risk of increased undernourishment, because of their high dependency on imported wheat, especially from Ukraine and Russia.
In Egypt, inflation rose to 21.3 per cent in December and the government said earlier this month that it would start selling discounted bread to people outside its food subsidy programme. Egypt is often the world’s largest wheat importer, depending on foreign supplies for more than 50 per cent of its needs.
In Lebanon, which is battling its worst economic crisis yet and is also highly dependent on imports, the price of food increased by 7.6 per cent in December compared with November amid annual inflation of 122 per cent, according to the country’s central administration of statistics.
EU countries will also be hit by further food inflation but it won’t be “a life-threatening issue” Mr Clarke said. The commission’s statistics office, Eurostat, said earlier this month that inflation of food, alcohol and tobacco increased by 13.8 per cent in the euro area.
For the EU and the international community, the aim is to keep the world prices of grain down.
The EU sends food aid to countries like Lebanon but such a move is a short-term solution akin to a “sticking plaster”, Mr Clarke said.
In the medium-term, the EU aims to strengthen its development co-operation to increase productivity, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. The continent suffers from low productivity – it is equivalent to about one quarter of South-East Asia’s productivity, Mr Clarke said.
“We want that region to become not wholly self-sufficient, because that’s never a good model, but more self-sufficient than it already is,” he said.
“It has good soil and does not have a history of over-use of chemicals and pesticides, so there is real potential to increase productivity.”
How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
THE CLOWN OF GAZA
Director: Abdulrahman Sabbah
Starring: Alaa Meqdad
Rating: 4/5
The specs: Lamborghini Aventador SVJ
Price, base: Dh1,731,672
Engine: 6.5-litre V12
Gearbox: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 770hp @ 8,500rpm
Torque: 720Nm @ 6,750rpm
Fuel economy: 19.6L / 100km
Milestones on the road to union
1970
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.
The chef's advice
Troy Payne, head chef at Abu Dhabi’s newest healthy eatery Sanderson’s in Al Seef Resort & Spa, says singles need to change their mindset about how they approach the supermarket.
“They feel like they can’t buy one cucumber,” he says. “But I can walk into a shop – I feed two people at home – and I’ll walk into a shop and I buy one cucumber, I’ll buy one onion.”
Mr Payne asks for the sticker to be placed directly on each item, rather than face the temptation of filling one of the two-kilogram capacity plastic bags on offer.
The chef also advises singletons not get too hung up on “organic”, particularly high-priced varieties that have been flown in from far-flung locales. Local produce is often grown sustainably, and far cheaper, he says.
THE BIO
Favourite holiday destination: Whenever I have any free time I always go back to see my family in Caltra, Galway, it’s the only place I can properly relax.
Favourite film: The Way, starring Martin Sheen. It’s about the Camino de Santiago walk from France to Spain.
Personal motto: If something’s meant for you it won’t pass you by.
Company profile
Name: Dukkantek
Started: January 2021
Founders: Sanad Yaghi, Ali Al Sayegh and Shadi Joulani
Based: UAE
Number of employees: 140
Sector: B2B Vertical SaaS(software as a service)
Investment: $5.2 million
Funding stage: Seed round
Investors: Global Founders Capital, Colle Capital Partners, Wamda Capital, Plug and Play, Comma Capital, Nowais Capital, Annex Investments and AMK Investment Office
more from Janine di Giovanni
UAE squad
Esha Oza (captain), Al Maseera Jahangir, Emily Thomas, Heena Hotchandani, Indhuja Nandakumar, Katie Thompson, Lavanya Keny, Mehak Thakur, Michelle Botha, Rinitha Rajith, Samaira Dharnidharka, Siya Gokhale, Sashikala Silva, Suraksha Kotte, Theertha Satish (wicketkeeper) Udeni Kuruppuarachchige, Vaishnave Mahesh.
UAE tour of Zimbabwe
All matches in Bulawayo
Friday, Sept 26 – First ODI
Sunday, Sept 28 – Second ODI
Tuesday, Sept 30 – Third ODI
Thursday, Oct 2 – Fourth ODI
Sunday, Oct 5 – First T20I
Monday, Oct 6 – Second T20I
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
KLOPP%20AT%20LIVERPOOL
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How the bonus system works
The two riders are among several riders in the UAE to receive the top payment of £10,000 under the Thank You Fund of £16 million (Dh80m), which was announced in conjunction with Deliveroo's £8 billion (Dh40bn) stock market listing earlier this year.
The £10,000 (Dh50,000) payment is made to those riders who have completed the highest number of orders in each market.
There are also riders who will receive payments of £1,000 (Dh5,000) and £500 (Dh2,500).
All riders who have worked with Deliveroo for at least one year and completed 2,000 orders will receive £200 (Dh1,000), the company said when it announced the scheme.
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Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
