The appointment of Russia’s top general to command the Ukraine operation signals Moscow’s intent to launch a major new offensive, military analysts have told The National.
But it could also suggest desperation similar to that of a football club hoping that, by changing their manager, their luck might change, others have said.
As chief of the general staff, Gen Valery Gerasimov might have hoped to oversee the war from the comfort of his Moscow headquarters, but he will now be much closer to the front line as the new theatre commander.
There has been much speculation on the thinking behind the general’s sudden and public appointment, with various motivations given.
A close confidant of President Vladimir Putin, Gen Gerasimov is now charged with reversing Russia’s dismal war effort, as the Ukrainians have retaken vast areas of territory.
Moscow's troops have been hit by astonishingly high casualties and lost much of their equipment.
The Kremlin is in a desperate strait: Withdrawal is not an option and neither is going nuclear. Instead, the only way ahead is a refreshed, revitalised military that can thump its way through Ukraine’s adept forces.
At 67, Gen Gerasimov has spent a lifetime in the army and more than a decade at its head. He was the architect of major modernisation reforms that had — apparently — turned it into a modern fighting force.
He is regarded as politically astute — he would not have lasted so close to Mr Putin if he was not — but also has a degree of military nous that led to the “Gerasimov Doctrine”, which states that modern warfare is something similar to the Libya conflict, with a focus on armour, drones and information warfare as well as other non-military activities.
Unfortunately for him, what was written down failed to survive contact with Ukraine’s military.
That, Mr Putin will be hoping, will change when his favoured general enters the theatre of combat.
“A plausible scenario is that inside the Kremlin, Gerasimov has been arguing for improved military strategy and improved command and control,” said Russian military expert Brig Ben Barry.
“If so, it may be that Mr Putin has said, ‘well, the best person to implement these ideas is the person who proposed them’.”
That grand idea could well be to mount a “major offensive” this year using an estimated 150,000 uncommitted mobilised troops and potentially a similar number of conscripts.
Quantity, as the Russians regularly demonstrated in the Second World War, has its own quality.
That war, too, showed Moscow’s commanders should never be underestimated.
Brig Barry, of the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank and former British army officer, pointed to the similarities between Ukraine and the decisive Battle of Kursk in 1943, in which the Germans were drawn deep behind defensive Russia lines, were weakened then heavily counter-attacked.
“The Russian are anticipating new Ukrainian offensives, particularly once they've built their new armoured formations,” he told The National. “It may be their first priority is to actually defeat those offensives then go over on to their own offensive as they did at the Battle of Kursk.
“Satellite imagery already shows their defensive preparations with long belts of obstacles, trenches and Dragon's Teeth, positions prepared in depth was exactly the tactic they used in Kursk to blunt the major German offensive.”
Other thinking behind Mr Putin’s surprise and unforeseen move is that it is signalling his intent for a “long war” that will ultimately be unacceptable to the West, which is suffering from high energy prices.
Bob Seely, MP, a former soldier who has written academic papers on Ukraine and Russia, suggests Gen Gerasimov is the military leader “Mr Putin trusts the most” and “may give Mr Putin more of a direct voice and direct communication” in the battle.
But as army chief, Gen Gerasimov has overseen much of the modernisation of Russian forces that has demonstrably failed.
“Mr Putin might also be saying, ‘right, you screwed this up, you go rescue it’,” Mr Seely said.
Mr Putin will not be relying on Gen Gerasimov’s tactical acumen, as Gen Sergei Surovikin, who now becomes his operational deputy, “is a brutal but strong leader”.
“The problem is that the Russian military has so many structural problems that getting a new commander is not really going to make much difference,” Mr Seely added.
In recent weeks, the mercenaries fighting in Ukraine — part of the notorious Wagner Group — have gained significant prominence, particularly with its boss Yevgeny Prigozhin’s boast that he had taken the town of Soledar, succeeding where the regular army had failed.
Gen Gerasimov's deployment might also be to re-establish the army’s per-eminence and restore its reputation while bringing the mercenaries to heel.
Former tank commander Col Hamish de Bretton Gordon believes Gen Gerasimov’s appointment was a “last throw of the dice” and that he was “not a winning general”.
“Mr Putin is desperate and he is trying anything but I don't think Gerasimov will bring anything to the party,” he said.
He, too, thinks it could be a response to the Kremlin’s fears over western heavy armoured formations arriving in Ukraine.
“The Russians are really concerned because they're fighting a static battle but if Ukraine is enabled to get into manoeuvre warfare, then once those armoured formations get behind the Russians, they're finished.”
He added that, with Gen Surovikin only serving three months as operational commander, “changing your generals every five minutes really shows that things aren't going well”.
“The whole command and control in the Russian army is absolutely shot to pieces,” he added.
The only hope is that Gen Gerasimov would bring a “more coherent, comprehensive and unified approach” rather than the current piecemeal actions.
“There is also a football analogy here,” he added. “They've tried everything, even the dreadful violence of Surovikin, but nothing is working, so why not change the boss? Maybe it will lead to a change of luck.”
The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington research unit, concluded that Russian’s lamentable military was unlikely to change with the appointment.
“Gen Gerasimov will likely preside over a disorganised command structure plagued by endemic, persistent and self-reinforcing failures that he largely set into motion in his initial role before the invasion of Ukraine,” it reported.
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MATCH INFO
Jersey 147 (20 overs)
UAE 112 (19.2 overs)
Jersey win by 35 runs
Ammar 808:
Maghreb United
Sofyann Ben Youssef
Glitterbeat
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
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Edited by Sahm Venter
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BULKWHIZ PROFILE
Date started: February 2017
Founders: Amira Rashad (CEO), Yusuf Saber (CTO), Mahmoud Sayedahmed (adviser), Reda Bouraoui (adviser)
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: E-commerce
Size: 50 employees
Funding: approximately $6m
Investors: Beco Capital, Enabling Future and Wain in the UAE; China's MSA Capital; 500 Startups; Faith Capital and Savour Ventures in Kuwait
Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
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The%20specs
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What the law says
Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.
“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.
“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”
If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.
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Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
Zayed Sustainability Prize
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HER%20FIRST%20PALESTINIAN
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Uefa Champions League Group H
Juventus v Valencia, Tuesday, midnight (UAE)
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Rooney's club record
At Everton Appearances: 77; Goals: 17
At Manchester United Appearances: 559; Goals: 253
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Studying addiction
This month, Dubai Medical College launched the Middle East’s first master's programme in addiction science.
Together with the Erada Centre for Treatment and Rehabilitation, the college offers a two-year master’s course as well as a one-year diploma in the same subject.
The move was announced earlier this year and is part of a new drive to combat drug abuse and increase the region’s capacity for treating drug addiction.
Without Remorse
Directed by: Stefano Sollima
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Stars: Hrithik Roshan, NTR, Kiara Advani, Ashutosh Rana
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Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
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The biog
Hobby: Playing piano and drawing patterns
Best book: Awaken the Giant Within by Tony Robbins
Food of choice: Sushi
Favourite colour: Orange
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Why are asylum seekers being housed in hotels?
The number of asylum applications in the UK has reached a new record high, driven by those illegally entering the country in small boats crossing the English Channel.
A total of 111,084 people applied for asylum in the UK in the year to June 2025, the highest number for any 12-month period since current records began in 2001.
Asylum seekers and their families can be housed in temporary accommodation while their claim is assessed.
The Home Office provides the accommodation, meaning asylum seekers cannot choose where they live.
When there is not enough housing, the Home Office can move people to hotels or large sites like former military bases.
The specs: 2018 Chevrolet Trailblazer
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Power 275hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque 350Nm @ 3,700rpm
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Fuel consumption: 8.7L/100km
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RESULTS
Men – semi-finals
57kg – Tak Chuen Suen (MAC) beat Phuong Xuan Nguyen (VIE) 29-28; Almaz Sarsembekov (KAZ) beat Zakaria Eljamari (UAE) by points 30-27.
67kg – Mohammed Mardi (UAE) beat Huong The Nguyen (VIE) by points 30-27; Narin Wonglakhon (THA) v Mojtaba Taravati Aram (IRI) by points 29-28.
60kg – Yerkanat Ospan (KAZ) beat Amir Hosein Kaviani (IRI) 30-27; Long Doan Nguyen (VIE) beat Ibrahim Bilal (UAE) 29-28
63.5kg – Abil Galiyev (KAZ) beat Truong Cao Phat (VIE) 30-27; Nouredine Samir (UAE) beat Norapat Khundam (THA) RSC round 3.
71kg – Shaker Al Tekreeti (IRQ) beat Fawzi Baltagi (LBN) 30-27; Amine El Moatassime (UAE) beat Man Kongsib (THA) 29-28
81kg – Ilyass Hbibali (UAE) beat Alexandr Tsarikov (KAZ) 29-28; Khaled Tarraf (LBN) beat Mustafa Al Tekreeti (IRQ) 30-27
86kg – Ali Takaloo (IRI) beat Mohammed Al Qahtani (KSA) RSC round 1; Emil Umayev (KAZ) beat Ahmad Bahman (UAE) TKO round
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