A mass rally on Thursday to protest against a prison term and political ban imposed on Istanbul's mayor is the clearest sign of unity among opposition parties that aim to dethrone President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in next year’s elections, analysts say.
A court on Wednesday sentenced Ekrem Imamoglu to two years and seven months in prison on charges of insulting members of the Supreme Electoral Board following his landslide victory in Istanbul’s local election three years ago.
A political ban would see him ousted as mayor of Turkey’s largest city and prevent him from standing against Mr Erdogan in a presidential vote scheduled for June. The date for an appeal hearing has yet to be set, and could happen before or after the election.
Mr Imamoglu, who represents the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), has been seen as one of the most likely opposition candidates capable of defeating Mr Erdogan when he seeks a third term.
“Everybody knows this is a political decision, not a legal decision, of the court, and nobody’s discussing the legality of the court decision,” said Osman Sert, research director at private polling company Panormatr.
“Everybody sees this as a political decision to affect the result of the presidential election. Even [ruling party] members, it’s very difficult for them to defend the decision, they’re just trying to say it is the independent judiciary but they can’t defend it.”
While Mr Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) maintain the courts are independent, few doubt that the government has weaponised the judiciary to target its opponents.
Many observers suggested the decision to pursue Mr Imamoglu had been a miscalculation by Mr Erdogan as it could consolidate the opposition and be viewed by voters as undemocratic.
Some recalled the 2019 election in Istanbul when Mr Imamoglu was forced to face a re-run after the AKP claimed voting irregularities. The second poll saw him increase his winning margin by more than 792,000 votes.
Tens of thousands turned out in the rain for Thursday’s rally in front of the Istanbul municipality’s offices. It was the first time that opposition leaders, who have organised an alliance known as the Table of Six, had spoken together at such an event.
Opposition Campaign
Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, director of the Ankara-based German Marshall Fund, said the rally seemed to mark the start of the opposition’s campaign.
“Before this [court] decision, before yesterday, what were we talking about? We were talking about the lack of unity among the opposition,” he said. “Now they are taking the same podium … You see people rallying in a very enthusiastic way.
“So I think this has been a mistake for the government.”
The Table of Six, of which the CHP is the largest party, has been criticised recently for delaying naming a joint candidate to challenge Mr Erdogan.
It is thought Mr Erdogan would prefer to face CHP head Kemal Kilicdaroglu in the presidential race, which is due to be held alongside a parliamentary election. Under Mr Kilicdaroglu’s 12 years as CHP leader, the party has failed to win a national election and many prefer the potential candidacies of Mr Imamoglu or the CHP’s Ankara mayor Mansur Yavas.
“There may be both benefits and risks for Erdogan,” said Karol Wasilewski, a Turkey analyst and consultant for the Warsaw-based 4CF The Futures Literacy Company.
“The benefits are tied to the possible elimination of a heavy contender from the presidential race, providing that — and I guess Erdogan may be hoping for this — the opposition remains divided over the issue and unable to mobilise the electorate’s support for Imamoglu.
“The risks are obviously tied to the fact that Imamoglu’s popularity may rise as the one who is fighting against oppressors.”
Either way, the court case is a “very critical turning point,” said Mr Sert.
“After the elections, whether Mr Erdogan or the opposition wins, we will turn back to December 14 and look at this date and analyse what happened after this date.”
The%20specs
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Venom
Director: Ruben Fleischer
Cast: Tom Hardy, Michelle Williams, Riz Ahmed
Rating: 1.5/5
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
Wicked: For Good
Director: Jon M Chu
Starring: Ariana Grande, Cynthia Erivo, Jonathan Bailey, Jeff Goldblum, Michelle Yeoh, Ethan Slater
Rating: 4/5
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20APPLE%20M3%20MACBOOK%20AIR%20(13%22)
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THE SPECS
BMW X7 xDrive 50i
Engine: 4.4-litre V8
Transmission: Eight-speed Steptronic transmission
Power: 462hp
Torque: 650Nm
Price: Dh600,000
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylinder turbo
Power: 240hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 390Nm at 3,000rpm
Transmission: eight-speed auto
Price: from Dh122,745
On sale: now
FIGHT CARD
From 5.30pm in the following order:
Featherweight
Marcelo Pontes (BRA) v Azouz Anwar (EGY)
Catchweight 90kg
Moustafa Rashid Nada (KSA) v Imad Al Howayeck (LEB)
Welterweight
Mohammed Al Khatib (JOR) v Gimbat Ismailov (RUS)
Flyweight (women)
Lucie Bertaud (FRA) v Kelig Pinson (BEL)
Lightweight
Alexandru Chitoran (BEL) v Regelo Enumerables Jr (PHI)
Catchweight 100kg
Mohamed Ali (EGY) v Marc Vleiger (NED)
Featherweight
James Bishop (AUS) v Mark Valerio (PHI)
Welterweight
Gerson Carvalho (BRA) v Abdelghani Saber (EGY)
Middleweight
Bakhtiyar Abbasov (AZE) v Igor Litoshik (BLR)
Bantamweight:
Fabio Mello (BRA) v Mark Alcoba (PHI)
Welterweight
Ahmed Labban (LEB) v Magomedsultan Magemedsultanov (RUS)
Bantamweight
Trent Girdham (AUS) v Jayson Margallo (PHI)
Lightweight
Usman Nurmagomedov (RUS) v Roman Golovinov (UKR)
Middleweight
Tarek Suleiman (SYR) v Steve Kennedy (AUS)
Lightweight
Dan Moret (USA) v Anton Kuivanen (FIN)
MATCH INFO
Tottenham Hotspur 3 (Son 1', Kane 8' & 16') West Ham United 3 (Balbuena 82', Sanchez og 85', Lanzini 90' 4)
Man of the match Harry Kane
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Afghanistan Premier League - at a glance
Venue: Sharjah Cricket Stadium
Fixtures:
Tue, Oct 16, 8pm: Kandahar Knights v Kabul Zwanan; Wed, Oct 17, 4pm: Balkh Legends v Nangarhar Leopards; 8pm: Kandahar Knights v Paktia Panthers; Thu, Oct 18, 4pm: Balkh Legends v Kandahar Knights; 8pm: Kabul Zwanan v Paktia Panthers; Fri, Oct 19, 8pm: First semi-final; Sat, Oct 20, 8pm: Second semi-final; Sun, Oct 21, 8pm: final
Table:
1. Balkh Legends 6 5 1 10
2. Paktia Panthers 6 4 2 8
3. Kabul Zwanan 6 3 3 6
4. Nagarhar Leopards 7 2 5 4
5. Kandahar Knights 5 1 4 2
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Tips for used car buyers
- Choose cars with GCC specifications
- Get a service history for cars less than five years old
- Don’t go cheap on the inspection
- Check for oil leaks
- Do a Google search on the standard problems for your car model
- Do your due diligence. Get a transfer of ownership done at an official RTA centre
- Check the vehicle’s condition. You don’t want to buy a car that’s a good deal but ends up costing you Dh10,000 in repairs every month
- Validate warranty and service contracts with the relevant agency and and make sure they are valid when ownership is transferred
- If you are planning to sell the car soon, buy one with a good resale value. The two most popular cars in the UAE are black or white in colour and other colours are harder to sell
Tarek Kabrit, chief executive of Seez, and Imad Hammad, chief executive and co-founder of CarSwitch.com
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Five ways to get fit like Craig David (we tried for seven but ran out of time)
Start the week as you mean to go on. So get your training on strong on a Monday.
Train hard, but don’t take it all so seriously that it gets to the point where you’re not having fun and enjoying your friends and your family and going out for nice meals and doing that stuff.
Think about what you’re training or eating a certain way for — don’t, for example, get a six-pack to impress somebody else or lose weight to conform to society’s norms. It’s all nonsense.
Get your priorities right.
And last but not least, you should always, always chill on Sundays.
'Midnights'
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Joker: Folie a Deux
Starring: Joaquin Phoenix, Lady Gaga, Brendan Gleeson
Director: Todd Phillips
Rating: 2/5
F1 2020 calendar
March 15 - Australia, Melbourne; March 22 - Bahrain, Sakhir; April 5 - Vietnam, Hanoi; April 19 - China, Shanghai; May 3 - Netherlands, Zandvoort; May 20 - Spain, Barcelona; May 24 - Monaco, Monaco; June 7 - Azerbaijan, Baku; June 14 - Canada, Montreal; June 28 - France, Le Castellet; July 5 - Austria, Spielberg; July 19 - Great Britain, Silverstone; August 2 - Hungary, Budapest; August 30 - Belgium, Spa; September 6 - Italy, Monza; September 20 - Singapore, Singapore; September 27 - Russia, Sochi; October 11 - Japan, Suzuka; October 25 - United States, Austin; November 1 - Mexico City, Mexico City; November 15 - Brazil, Sao Paulo; November 29 - Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi.
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl, 48V hybrid
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 325bhp
Torque: 450Nm
Price: Dh289,000
