It has been an unusually wet but mild autumn in Ukraine — but that is set to change, with temperatures forecast to drop significantly in Kherson at the weekend to well below freezing.
That will mark the start of the winter war and could be a defining moment in combat operations in the country.
The side that comes out on top by spring may well dictate the course of the war and whatever final settlement brings peace.
Experts believe that current conditions favour the Ukrainians but Russia’s resilience and ability to adapt cannot be dismissed — nor can their long history of successful winter warfare.
When Napoleon invaded in June 1812, it was “General Winter” that devastated the 450,000-strong French army as it retreated from Moscow, with only 40,000 limping into Paris by December.
Adolf Hitler’s troops suffered the same fate in World War Two: the Soviets conducted several winter offensives, including one in which they surrounded the Germans in Stalingrad precisely 80 years ago.
There is a question over whether the current Russian army will retain the willpower or ability to continue fighting. Nothing breaks morale quicker on the front line than frozen extremities, cold rations and the realisation that warmth is permanently unattainable.
“In harsh winter weather, leadership and morale, team cohesion and believing you're fighting for a just cause becomes ever more important,” said former British Army Brigadier Ben Barry. “This is a truth that's universally ignored.”
Winter warmers
Morale is only one component of winter war — functioning and effective equipment is also key to good spirits and fighting capability.
When the Wehrmacht reached the outskirts of Moscow in late 1941, their commanders realised too late that they had no winter clothing and German households belatedly handed over their personal furs to the front line.
Canada, a country of extreme freezing temperatures, is sending Ukraine 500,000 sets of cold-weather clothing, from winter parkas to trousers, boots and gloves. Britain is also providing 25,000 sets of extreme cold-weather clothing as well as 12,000 sleeping kits and 150 heated tents.
By comparison, Russian reservists are said to be arriving without sleeping bags and with reportedly low-grade equipment. While they will know about extreme cold conditions from home, it will be different being out in the open on the front line.
The Ukrainian military has realised that those who are better prepared will have the advantage.
“When a soldier is in warm clothes, he will fight in the cold; when the ground is dry and hard, he will feel comfortable and then there will be a tendency to intensify hostilities,” said Ukrainian reservist Col Oleh Zhdanov.
Sam Cranny-Evans of the Rusi think tank said: “The temperature is dropping rapidly so it's a big question over whether both sides are actually ready for winter coming as it will be cold, wet and freezing which can certainly exacerbate the fighting spirit.”
Leaf cover
Already combat conditions are changing, with autumnal storms stripping trees of leaves that offer cover, particularly from the many surveillance drones.
Less leaf cover makes it harder to spot the enemy, allowing for fewer ambushes and battles conducted at a greater distance with tank and artillery duels.
The storms have also brought on rivers of mud, making the evacuation of wounded a real challenge. Britain’s defence ministry warned in a recent report that medics were struggling to evacuate soldiers in the “golden hour”, the time frame given to get them to the operating theatre with the highest chance of saving their lives.
“We can expect more fatalities as a consequence of injuries on the battlefield,” one defence source said.
The wet, damp conditions are also leading to spikes in flu and tetanus cases. Soldiers are also injuring themselves by slipping in the mud and on one occasion this month, a Ukrainian ambulance slid down a verge almost into a river.
Freeze over
The coming plunge in temperatures will freeze the mud but will also prove a test for both sides’ equipment.
“Winter is going to have an effect on performance particularly on sensors and with the longer nights,” said Brig Barry, who served two winters on operations in Bosnia.
“The simple, cheap commercial drones just have optical cameras and no low light capability. It's only the expensive military-grade drones that have thermal cameras that can detect armoured vehicles under cover but they will still have problems in freezing fog.”
The freeze will also affect drone use with navigation systems liable to ice over.
While the snow will make it easier to hide landmines, it will also require more fuel for generators. Logistics troops will also have to get used to driving and navigating in the dark with the tree cover gone and shorter days.
With cold air being denser than warm, riflemen will have to adjust to bullets travelling slower.
The concrete-hard ground will also prove deadly, with artillery shrapnel otherwise mitigated by softer ground.
Soviet era
Both sides have Soviet-era equipment that is well adapted to harsh winters but this will prove a test for Ukraine’s modern Nato vehicles.
“The Soviet-era vehicles are specifically designed for cold and soldiers will know how to get them started and keep them running with antifreeze and specific motor oil,” said Mr Cranny-Evans.
“It’s a question of which side trains and adapts best for winter maintenance. The Soviet armour also has wider tracks which helps in mud and snow.”
Cold wars
Both sides might decide to build up their strength before the freeze fully arrives. Russia will want to hold its ground while it trains up more soldiers and, more importantly, rebuilds its vastly depleted ammunition stockpile.
There could well be a reduction in the fighting during the winter, but come December or January, the Ukrainians, with their better winter protection and momentum from taking the city of Kherson, may decide to press on with recapturing more territory.
“Both sides doctrinally can fight in the winter so it depends on the choices they make,” a western official told The National.
“Is it their intent to rebuild and reconstitute forces and munitions ready for a spring offensive or will they continue on the offensive during winter as new personnel and munitions arrive? We shall see.”
He warned that the Russians were “in a better state” than the cold of their February invasion “but I don't think they have closed the gap on their winter gear to people on the front so we'll see how winter starts to affect morale”.
Morale leadership
That morale factor may soon become apparent.
The cold might slow the tempo of Ukraine’s counter-offensive, giving Russia’s generals the chance to recuperate — which may well have been their calculation in withdrawing from Kherson.
But they also have a 1,100km front line to defend as well as troops to train, equip and supply.
If Russia fails to adequately support its troops, the relentless cold could make an irreparable dent in their willingness to continue fighting for a questionable cause.
“Leadership and belief in your cause and morale is key in those conditions and it seems to me that the Ukrainians have an advantage compared with Russia in that department,” said Brig Barry.
Mykola Bielieskov, a Ukrainian analyst, argued that “sustaining morale” was the most important factor in winter on both sides.
“There’s a real possibility that Russian forces in the field might cross a point of no return if they’re not properly sustained,” he said.
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
SPECS
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Gothia Cup 2025
4,872 matches
1,942 teams
116 pitches
76 nations
26 UAE teams
15 Lebanese teams
2 Kuwaiti teams
Russia's Muslim Heartlands
Dominic Rubin, Oxford
MATCH INFO
Schalke 0
Werder Bremen 1 (Bittencourt 32')
Man of the match Leonardo Bittencourt (Werder Bremen)
TALE OF THE TAPE
Manny Pacquiao
Record: 59-6-2 (38 KOs)
Age: 38
Weight: 146lbs
Height: 166cm
Reach: 170cm
Jeff Horn
Record: 16-0-1 (11 KOs)
Age: 29
Weight: 146.2lbs
Height: 175cm
Reach: 173cm
Oscars in the UAE
The 90th Academy Awards will be aired in the UAE from 3.30am on Monday, March 5 on OSN, with the ceremony starting at 5am
How to help
Send “thenational” to the following numbers or call the hotline on: 0502955999
2289 – Dh10
2252 – Dh 50
6025 – Dh20
6027 – Dh 100
6026 – Dh 200
RESULTS
%3Cp%3E%0D%3Cstrong%3E1.45pm%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Green%20Oasis%20Trading%20%E2%80%93%20Maiden%20(PA)%20Dh50%2C000%20(Dirt)%201%2C400m%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWinner%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Meeqat%2C%20Saif%20Al%20Balushi%20(jockey)%2C%20Khalifa%20Al%20Neyadi%20(trainer)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E2.15pm%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAl%20Shafar%20Investment%20%E2%80%93%20Maiden%20(TB)%20Dh60%2C000%20(D)%201%2C400m%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWinner%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Flying%20Hunter%2C%20Ray%20Dawson%2C%20Ahmad%20bin%20Harmash%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E2.45pm%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EThe%20Union%2051%20Cup%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(TB)%20Dh84%2C000%20(D)%201%2C400m%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWinner%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ibra%20Attack%2C%20Adrie%20de%20Vries%2C%20Ahmed%20Al%20Shemaili%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E3.15pm%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20ASCANA%20Thakaful%20%E2%80%93%20Maiden%20(TB)%20Dh60%2C000%20(D)%201%2C200m%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWinner%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Onda%20Ruggente%2C%20Royston%20Ffrench%2C%20Salem%20bin%20Ghadayer%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E3.45pm%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ECommercial%20Bank%20of%20Dubai%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(TB)%20Dh76%2C000%20(D)%201%2C200m%0D%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Dignity%20Joy%2C%20Antonio%20Fresu%2C%20Musabah%20Al%20Muhairi%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E4.15pm%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%20Real%20Estate%20Centre%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(TB)%20Dh76%2C000%20(D)%201%2C600m%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWinner%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Tolmount%2C%20Xavier%20Ziani%2C%20Salem%20bin%20Ghadayer%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E4.45pm%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJebel%20Ali%20Racecourse%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(TB)%20Dh84%2C000%20(D)%201%2C950m%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWinner%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERakeez%2C%20Tadhg%20O%E2%80%99Shea%2C%20Bhupat%20Seemar%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
The%20US%20Congress%2C%20explained
%3Cp%3E-%20US%20Congress%20is%20divided%20into%20two%20chambers%3A%20the%20House%20of%20Representatives%20and%20Senate%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20435%20members%20make%20up%20the%20House%2C%20and%20100%20in%20the%20Senate%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20A%20party%20needs%20control%20of%20218%20seats%20to%20have%20a%20majority%20in%20the%20House%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20In%20the%20Senate%2C%20a%20party%20needs%20to%20hold%2051%20seats%20for%20control%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20In%20the%20event%20of%20a%2050-50%20split%2C%20the%20vice%20president's%20party%20retains%20power%20in%20the%20Senate%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
Bio:
Favourite Quote: Prophet Mohammad's quotes There is reward for kindness to every living thing and A good man treats women with honour
Favourite Hobby: Serving poor people
Favourite Book: The Alchemist by Paulo Coelho
Favourite food: Fish and vegetables
Favourite place to visit: London
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
Citadel: Honey Bunny first episode
Directors: Raj & DK
Stars: Varun Dhawan, Samantha Ruth Prabhu, Kashvi Majmundar, Kay Kay Menon
Rating: 4/5
Masters%20of%20the%20Air
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirectors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Cary%20Joji%20Fukunaga%2C%20Dee%20Rees%2C%20Anna%20Boden%2C%20Ryan%20Fleck%2C%20Tim%20Van%20Patten%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Austin%20Butler%2C%20Callum%20Turner%2C%20Anthony%20Boyle%2C%20Barry%20Keoghan%2C%20Sawyer%20Spielberg%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Transmission: seven-speed auto
Power: 420 bhp
Torque: 624Nm
Price: from Dh293,200
On sale: now
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Gulf Under 19s final
Dubai College A 50-12 Dubai College B
Napoleon
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20Ridley%20Scott%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20Joaquin%20Phoenix%2C%20Vanessa%20Kirby%2C%20Tahar%20Rahim%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%202%2F5%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Cinco in numbers
Dh3.7 million
The estimated cost of Victoria Swarovski’s gem-encrusted Michael Cinco wedding gown
46
The number, in kilograms, that Swarovski’s wedding gown weighed.
1,000
The hours it took to create Cinco’s vermillion petal gown, as seen in his atelier [note, is the one he’s playing with in the corner of a room]
50
How many looks Cinco has created in a new collection to celebrate Ballet Philippines’ 50th birthday
3,000
The hours needed to create the butterfly gown worn by Aishwarya Rai to the 2018 Cannes Film Festival.
1.1 million
The number of followers that Michael Cinco’s Instagram account has garnered.
HEY%20MERCEDES%2C%20WHAT%20CAN%20YOU%20DO%20FOR%20ME%3F
%3Cp%3EMercedes-Benz's%20MBUX%20digital%20voice%20assistant%2C%20Hey%20Mercedes%2C%20allows%20users%20to%20set%20up%20commands%20for%3A%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Navigation%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Calls%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20In-car%20climate%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Ambient%20lighting%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Media%20controls%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Driver%20assistance%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20General%20inquiries%20such%20as%20motor%20data%2C%20fuel%20consumption%20and%20next%20service%20schedule%2C%20and%20even%20funny%20questions%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EThere's%20also%20a%20hidden%20feature%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20pressing%20and%20holding%20the%20voice%20command%20button%20on%20the%20steering%20wheel%20activates%20the%20voice%20assistant%20on%20a%20connected%20smartphone%20%E2%80%93%20Siri%20on%20Apple's%20iOS%20or%20Google%20Assistant%20on%20Android%20%E2%80%93%20enabling%20a%20user%20to%20command%20the%20car%20even%20without%20Apple%20CarPlay%20or%20Android%20Auto%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Top%2010%20most%20competitive%20economies
%3Cp%3E1.%20Singapore%0D%3Cbr%3E2.%20Switzerland%0D%3Cbr%3E3.%20Denmark%0D%3Cbr%3E4.%20Ireland%0D%3Cbr%3E5.%20Hong%20Kong%0D%3Cbr%3E6.%20Sweden%0D%3Cbr%3E7.%20UAE%0D%3Cbr%3E8.%20Taiwan%0D%3Cbr%3E9.%20Netherlands%0D%3Cbr%3E10.%20Norway%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Read more from Aya Iskandarani
Torbal Rayeh Wa Jayeh
Starring: Ali El Ghoureir, Khalil El Roumeithy, Mostafa Abo Seria
Stars: 3
QUALIFYING RESULTS
1. Max Verstappen, Netherlands, Red Bull Racing Honda, 1 minute, 35.246 seconds.
2. Valtteri Bottas, Finland, Mercedes, 1:35.271.
3. Lewis Hamilton, Great Britain, Mercedes, 1:35.332.
4. Lando Norris, Great Britain, McLaren Renault, 1:35.497.
5. Alexander Albon, Thailand, Red Bull Racing Honda, 1:35.571.
6. Carlos Sainz Jr, Spain, McLaren Renault, 1:35.815.
7. Daniil Kvyat, Russia, Scuderia Toro Rosso Honda, 1:35.963.
8. Lance Stroll, Canada, Racing Point BWT Mercedes, 1:36.046.
9. Charles Leclerc, Monaco, Ferrari, 1:36.065.
10. Pierre Gasly, France, Scuderia Toro Rosso Honda, 1:36.242.
Eliminated after second session
11. Esteban Ocon, France, Renault, 1:36.359.
12. Daniel Ricciardo, Australia, Renault, 1:36.406.
13. Sebastian Vettel, Germany, Ferrari, 1:36.631.
14. Antonio Giovinazzi, Italy, Alfa Romeo Racing Ferrari, 1:38.248.
Eliminated after first session
15. Antonio Giovinazzi, Italy, Alfa Romeo Racing Ferrari, 1:37.075.
16. Kimi Raikkonen, Finland, Alfa Romeo Racing Ferrari, 1:37.555.
17. Kevin Magnussen, Denmark, Haas Ferrari, 1:37.863.
18. George Russell, Great Britain, Williams Mercedes, 1:38.045.
19. Pietro Fittipaldi, Brazil, Haas Ferrari, 1:38.173.
20. Nicholas Latifi, Canada, Williams Mercedes, 1:38.443.
Dengue%20fever%20symptoms
%3Cul%3E%0A%3Cli%3EHigh%20fever%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EIntense%20pain%20behind%20your%20eyes%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3ESevere%20headache%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EMuscle%20and%20joint%20pains%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3ENausea%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EVomiting%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3ESwollen%20glands%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3ERash%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3C%2Ful%3E%0A%3Cp%3EIf%20symptoms%20occur%2C%20they%20usually%20last%20for%20two-seven%20days%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
ENGLAND SQUAD
Joe Root (c), Moeen Ali, Jimmy Anderson, Jonny Bairstow, Stuart Broad, Jos Buttler, Alastair Cook, Sam Curran, Keaton Jennings, Ollie Pope, Adil Rashid, Ben Stokes, James Vince, Chris Woakes
Fixtures (all times UAE)
Saturday
Brescia v Atalanta (6pm)
Genoa v Torino (9pm)
Fiorentina v Lecce (11.45pm)
Sunday
Juventus v Sassuolo (3.30pm)
Inter Milan v SPAL (6pm)
Lazio v Udinese (6pm)
Parma v AC Milan (6pm)
Napoli v Bologna (9pm)
Verona v AS Roma (11.45pm)
Monday
Cagliari v Sampdoria (11.45pm)
Coming soon
Torno Subito by Massimo Bottura
When the W Dubai – The Palm hotel opens at the end of this year, one of the highlights will be Massimo Bottura’s new restaurant, Torno Subito, which promises “to take guests on a journey back to 1960s Italy”. It is the three Michelinstarred chef’s first venture in Dubai and should be every bit as ambitious as you would expect from the man whose restaurant in Italy, Osteria Francescana, was crowned number one in this year’s list of the World’s 50 Best Restaurants.
Akira Back Dubai
Another exciting opening at the W Dubai – The Palm hotel is South Korean chef Akira Back’s new restaurant, which will continue to showcase some of the finest Asian food in the world. Back, whose Seoul restaurant, Dosa, won a Michelin star last year, describes his menu as, “an innovative Japanese cuisine prepared with a Korean accent”.
Dinner by Heston Blumenthal
The highly experimental chef, whose dishes are as much about spectacle as taste, opens his first restaurant in Dubai next year. Housed at The Royal Atlantis Resort & Residences, Dinner by Heston Blumenthal will feature contemporary twists on recipes that date back to the 1300s, including goats’ milk cheesecake. Always remember with a Blumenthal dish: nothing is quite as it seems.
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4.0-litre%20twin-turbo%20V8%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E640hp%20at%206%2C000rpm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E850Nm%20from%202%2C300-4%2C500rpm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E8-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E11.9L%2F100km%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDh749%2C800%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Enow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
MOTHER%20OF%20STRANGERS
%3Cp%3EAuthor%3A%20Suad%20Amiry%3Cbr%3EPublisher%3A%20Pantheon%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EPages%3A%20304%3Cbr%3EAvailable%3A%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
