The missile strike on Poland is a potential repeat of a similar incident when a Syrian air defence weapon struck Cyprus after it was fired at Israeli jet fighters, security experts told The National.
But Polish security sources have also suggested that Russian mission planners may have entered the wrong GPS co-ordinates for the missile, which would have sent it just inside Poland, very close to the village struck.
Debris, possibly from a Ukrainian S-300 air defence missile, was found at Przewodow when it came down with its warhead still intact after failing to strike the incoming cruise missile.
The event is not dissimilar to an incident in 2019 when Syrian air defences fired surface-to-air missiles at an incoming Israeli air force attack.
One of the S-200 weapons, which has a range of 300km, missed and continued flying until it struck a mountainside 20km north of Nicosia, the capital of Cyprus.
“The available evidence points to this being a Ukrainian S-300 air defence missile fired close to the border at incoming Russian cruise but it has not detonated and the warhead unfortunately landed in Poland,” said Tom Bullock, an expert at the Atreides intelligence company. “These things have to come down, and Syrian SAMs did land in Cyprus following Israeli attacks.”
The incident happened 60km north of the western Ukraine city of Lviv, which has has strong missile air defences after previous attacks. The S-300 could have launched from Lviv aimed at the cruise missile to the north, missed and come down on Przewodow, killing the two civilians.
But there is also be another explanation, Polish security sources told The National.
Russia fired an estimated 100 cruise missiles at Ukraine on Tuesday, most probably air launched by bombers in Russian airspace.
The missiles were a package of Kh-101, Kh-55 and Kalibr with ranges varying from 1,500km to 2,500km carrying 500kg warheads.
Intelligence analysis suggests that the global positioning satellite [GPS] co-ordinates may have been incorrectly entered, conflating Kyiv and Lviv.
“Central Kyiv has the co-ordinates of 50.4501° N, 30.5234°E and central Lviv’s are 49.8429° N, 24.0311° E,” the source told The National. “Our co-ordinates for where the missile landed are 50.4501° N, 24.0311° E, just seven kilometres east of Przewodow. Therefore it is possible the incompetent Russian planners mixed up the co-ordinates, entering Kyiv’s northings and Lviv’s eastings into their guidance system.”
Another theory is that the harsh sanctions against Russia could have led to their depleted cruise missile inventory using defective or old computer microchips for guidance.
Nuclear weapon expert Hamish de Breton Gordon said that whatever the cause, the incident demonstrated that the conflict meant that “we are a miscalculation or misjudgement away from a potential disaster”.
“The bottom line is if Russia had not fired 100 cruise missiles on Ukraine yesterday we wouldn't be talking about two dead people in Poland,” he added.
He also suggested that Nato would now be refining its response if it was found Russia was resposnible for the attack, potentially invoking Article 5 of the alliance’s collective defence, that an attack on one is an attack on all.
White hydrogen: Naturally occurring hydrogen
Chromite: Hard, metallic mineral containing iron oxide and chromium oxide
Ultramafic rocks: Dark-coloured rocks rich in magnesium or iron with very low silica content
Ophiolite: A section of the earth’s crust, which is oceanic in nature that has since been uplifted and exposed on land
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KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
A State of Passion
Directors: Carol Mansour and Muna Khalidi
Stars: Dr Ghassan Abu-Sittah
Rating: 4/5
RESULT
Deportivo La Coruna 2 Barcelona 4
Deportivo: Perez (39'), Colak (63')
Barcelona: Coutinho (6'), Messi (37', 81', 84')
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The specs
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Transmission: 6-speed automatic
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EMERGENCY PHONE NUMBERS
Estijaba – 8001717 – number to call to request coronavirus testing
Ministry of Health and Prevention – 80011111
Dubai Health Authority – 800342 – The number to book a free video or voice consultation with a doctor or connect to a local health centre
Emirates airline – 600555555
Etihad Airways – 600555666
Ambulance – 998
Knowledge and Human Development Authority – 8005432 ext. 4 for Covid-19 queries
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- Add tint to windows
- Wrap your car to change the exterior colour
- Pick light interiors - choose colours such as beige and cream for seats and dashboard furniture
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A list of the animal rescue organisations in the UAE
What is the Supreme Petroleum Council?
The Abu Dhabi Supreme Petroleum Council was established in 1988 and is the highest governing body in Abu Dhabi’s oil and gas industry. The council formulates, oversees and executes the emirate’s petroleum-related policies. It also approves the allocation of capital spending across state-owned Adnoc’s upstream, downstream and midstream operations and functions as the company’s board of directors. The SPC’s mandate is also required for auctioning oil and gas concessions in Abu Dhabi and for awarding blocks to international oil companies. The council is chaired by Sheikh Khalifa, the President and Ruler of Abu Dhabi while Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, Abu Dhabi’s Crown Prince and Deputy Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, is the vice chairman.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Greatest Royal Rumble match listing
50-man Royal Rumble - names entered so far include Braun Strowman, Daniel Bryan, Kurt Angle, Big Show, Kane, Chris Jericho, The New Day and Elias
Universal Championship Brock Lesnar (champion) v Roman Reigns in a steel cage match
WWE World Heavyweight ChampionshipAJ Styles (champion) v Shinsuke Nakamura
Intercontinental Championship Seth Rollins (champion) v The Miz v Finn Balor v Samoa Joe
United States Championship Jeff Hardy (champion) v Jinder Mahal
SmackDown Tag Team Championship The Bludgeon Brothers (champions) v The Usos
Raw Tag Team Championship (currently vacant) Cesaro and Sheamus v Matt Hardy and Bray Wyatt
Casket match The Undertaker v Rusev
Singles match John Cena v Triple H
Cruiserweight Championship Cedric Alexander v Kalisto
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