What is Transnistria and how could it be the next Ukraine war flashpoint?

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Fears are growing that Transnistria, a Russian-supporting region of Moldova, will be the next flashpoint of the war in Ukraine.

Russia accused of using occupied Moldova region 'to stage false-flag attacks'

Moldova, like Ukraine, is a former Soviet Union satellite with a breakaway Russia-allied region in its east.

In Ukraine, that breakaway region is at the centre of Russian battle plans after years of Moscow-allied rebels fighting. In Moldova, it is friends with Russia along part of the border with Ukraine.

What is Transnistria?

It is a region that broke away from Moldova as the USSR collapsed into separate states after the Cold War.

A billboard depicting the first cosmonaut Yuri Gagarin in Tiraspol, the capital of the breakaway region of Transnistria. AP

Transnistria used to be part of a Russian-speaking area of Ukraine, while the rest of Moldova has Romanian heritage. Ethnic Russians and Ukrainians outnumber ethnic Moldovans.

Its statehood is not internationally recognised, but Russia has been its prime supporter.

It has a population of about 469,000 people.

Where is it?

It is a sliver of land of about 4,100 square kilometres between the Dniester River and the Ukraine border. Moldova is 33,800 km2.

How did it come about?

The HQ of the Operational Group of Russian Forces in Tiraspol. AP

Transnistria declared independence from West-leaning Moldova in 1990. After a short war in 1992, which killed hundreds of people, a ceasefire was signed.

During the war, the Russian army, which still has forces in Transnistria, backed the rebels in a way similar to Russia’s presence in eastern Ukraine.

A referendum in 2006, that was not internationally recognised, found 97.1 per cent of voters wanted to join Russia.

Who controls it?

The territory has seen de facto independence since 1992, but that is not internationally recognised.

Its government and economy are heavily dependent on subsidies from Russia, which keeps an influential role.

Russia also has a military presence and peacekeeping mission in the territory.

There is little in the way of political competition or independent media.

What has happened?

The Moscow-backed Transnistria interior ministry said on Wednesday that shots were fired at a village housing a Russian arms depot after drones flew from Ukraine.

Kolbasna, about 2km from the Ukrainian border, houses a stockpile of 20,000 tonnes of munitions dating back to the Soviet era, which are guarded by Russian troops.

There have also been reports of explosions after what the administration called “terrorist attacks” .

Ukraine has raised concerns that the land could be used by Russian forces in a way similar to how it has used Belarus during the Ukraine war.

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Conflict, drought, famine

Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.

Band Aid

Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.