A Russian tank in the besieged Ukrainian city of Mariupol. Moscow’s tactics have changed, observers in the West have said. Reuters
A Russian tank in the besieged Ukrainian city of Mariupol. Moscow’s tactics have changed, observers in the West have said. Reuters
A Russian tank in the besieged Ukrainian city of Mariupol. Moscow’s tactics have changed, observers in the West have said. Reuters
A Russian tank in the besieged Ukrainian city of Mariupol. Moscow’s tactics have changed, observers in the West have said. Reuters

World

Europe

Russia could ‘still win’ in Ukraine, western officials fear

War could last into next year after ‘some improvement’ seen in Moscow’s tactics

Thomas Harding
Thomas Harding

April 21, 2022

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Live updates: follow the latest news on Russia-Ukraine

Russia could “still win” the war in Ukraine, which could last beyond the end of this year, western officials have said.

There had been “some improvement” in their tactics during the new offensive under way in eastern Ukraine that could lead to renewed attacks on Kyiv and Odesa, it was also confirmed.

The security assessment could prompt western powers to speed up delivery of weapons.

On Thursday, America announced it was sending five battalions worth of artillery pieces, numbering 90 guns, to Ukraine, along with 144,000 rounds of 155mm ammunition.

About 76 Russian battalion tactical groups of about 70,000 personnel have launched a broad offensive over a 300-kilometre front in Donbas, with modest success.

“This is a new chapter of the campaign and Putin has clearly failed in meeting his initial pre-war objectives but is still in a position to win,” a western official said.

There was growing evidence that Russian forces had learnt from their failures in earlier operations during which they had suffered about 15,000 dead.

Their forces in Donbas were “narrowing axes of advance” and had resolved problems of command and control.

“That’s led to some improvement in how they’re operating,” a security official told a media briefing. “But it’s not solved all of their problems. They continue to operate in relatively long convoys on single roads and make themselves vulnerable. So, whilst we see some improvement, it is, as yet, not a force transformed.”

A Ukrainian soldier examines Russian multiple missiles system abandoned by Russian troops in the village of Berezivka, Ukraine, Thursday, April 21, 2022. Writing on the missiles reads "Russian republic of Buryatiya, Kyakhta". (AP Photo / Efrem Lukatsky)
A Ukrainian soldier examines Russian multiple missiles system abandoned by Russian troops in the village of Berezivka, Ukraine, Thursday, April 21, 2022. Writing on the missiles reads "Russian republic of Buryatiya, Kyakhta". (AP Photo / Efrem Lukatsky)

The Ukrainians were continuing to fight “in a very smart way” and were willing to “trade a degree of space in open ground to move to areas which are more easily defensible”, which included towns or cities that had proven very hard to attack.

The West appears to be preparing for a long campaign with Russia and the possibility the conflict could last into next year. “We’re now gearing up to sustain our support for Ukraine through a prolonged period of conflict, through perhaps much of the rest of this year, at least, so we have to plan for that eventuality,” an official said.

Asked by The National to expand on the potential for a Russian victory, the official said that if the large concentration of Russian forces was “used intelligently” it could defeat the Ukrainians.

“They might be able to surround and destroy a very significant portion of Ukraine’s armed forces, some of its best forces, and make territorial gains which would then be very difficult to dislodge,” the official said.

“In a really worst-case scenario, they might then be able to look again at whether they could revisit some of their pre-war objectives, potentially renew an attack on Kyiv. Or to or to attempt to take Odesa and deprive the rest of Ukraine from access to the sea,” he said.

“I think that is still something which is potentially within reach if the Russians are successful in the campaign in the Donbas … that is a real possibility.”

Pro-Russian troops, including fighters of the Chechen special forces unit, survey the destroyed administration building of Azovstal Iron and Steel Works in Mariupol, Ukraine. Reuters
Pro-Russian troops, including fighters of the Chechen special forces unit, survey the destroyed administration building of Azovstal Iron and Steel Works in Mariupol, Ukraine. Reuters
A young Ukrainian refugee, one of 71 to board a flight from Moldova, sits on a suitcase after arriving in Bordeaux, France. AFP
A young Ukrainian refugee, one of 71 to board a flight from Moldova, sits on a suitcase after arriving in Bordeaux, France. AFP
A member of a demining team of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine carries an unexploded projectile during mine clearing near Brovary, north-east of Kyiv. AFP
A member of a demining team of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine carries an unexploded projectile during mine clearing near Brovary, north-east of Kyiv. AFP
An armoured convoy of pro-Russian troops presses on in the besieged Ukrainian city of Mariupol. Reuters
An armoured convoy of pro-Russian troops presses on in the besieged Ukrainian city of Mariupol. Reuters
A worker cleans a statue of the founder of the Soviet Union Vladimir Lenin at Moscow Square in Saint Petersburg, Russia. AFP
A worker cleans a statue of the founder of the Soviet Union Vladimir Lenin at Moscow Square in Saint Petersburg, Russia. AFP
Firefighters battle flames at a warehouse after a Russian bombardment in Kharkiv, Ukraine. AP Photo
Firefighters battle flames at a warehouse after a Russian bombardment in Kharkiv, Ukraine. AP Photo
People walk along a street past a missile that stuck in the ground, amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine, in Rubizhne, Luhansk region, Ukraine. Reuters
People walk along a street past a missile that stuck in the ground, amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine, in Rubizhne, Luhansk region, Ukraine. Reuters
A man rides his bicycle next to a destroyed Russian tank in Chernihiv, Ukraine. AP Photo
A man rides his bicycle next to a destroyed Russian tank in Chernihiv, Ukraine. AP Photo
A man walks next to a fire after a Russian bombardment in Kharkiv, Ukraine. AP Photo
A man walks next to a fire after a Russian bombardment in Kharkiv, Ukraine. AP Photo
A Ukrainian refugee from Mariupol area, is greeted after arriving in a small convoy that crossed through a territory held by Russian forces, after the opening of a humanitarian corridor, at a registration center for internally displaced people, amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine, in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine. Reuters
A Ukrainian refugee from Mariupol area, is greeted after arriving in a small convoy that crossed through a territory held by Russian forces, after the opening of a humanitarian corridor, at a registration center for internally displaced people, amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine, in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine. Reuters
A Ukrainian soldier stands during the funeral of his father in Bucha, on the outskirts of Kyiv. AP
A Ukrainian soldier stands during the funeral of his father in Bucha, on the outskirts of Kyiv. AP
Ukrainian soldiers walk on a destroyed bridge in Irpin, on the outskirts of Kyiv. AP
Ukrainian soldiers walk on a destroyed bridge in Irpin, on the outskirts of Kyiv. AP
Ukrainians receive humanitarian aid organised by local volunteers in Irpin. AP
Ukrainians receive humanitarian aid organised by local volunteers in Irpin. AP
Volodymyr Lukyanovych, 63, cuts wood to make a fire outside his house in Irpin. His home was destroyed by Russian shelling. AP
Volodymyr Lukyanovych, 63, cuts wood to make a fire outside his house in Irpin. His home was destroyed by Russian shelling. AP
Vova, 10, and his father, Ivan Drahun, look at the grave of his mother, Maryna, during her funeral in Bucha. AP
Vova, 10, and his father, Ivan Drahun, look at the grave of his mother, Maryna, during her funeral in Bucha. AP
Sergei, 11, waits his turn to receive donated food during an aid humanitarian distribution in Bucha. AP
Sergei, 11, waits his turn to receive donated food during an aid humanitarian distribution in Bucha. AP
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, right, and European Council President Charles Michel attend a news conference after their meeting in Kyiv. AP
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, right, and European Council President Charles Michel attend a news conference after their meeting in Kyiv. AP
People pay their respects during the funeral in Kyiv for Ukrainian serviceman Volodymyr Karas, who died fighting Russian troops. AP
People pay their respects during the funeral in Kyiv for Ukrainian serviceman Volodymyr Karas, who died fighting Russian troops. AP
Alexandra Kusminova pets her cat, named Mouse, in a restaurant in Dnipro, Ukraine, that was transformed into a shelter for those fleeing the war. AP
Alexandra Kusminova pets her cat, named Mouse, in a restaurant in Dnipro, Ukraine, that was transformed into a shelter for those fleeing the war. AP
A woman reads a book as she lays on a bed in the shelter. AP
A woman reads a book as she lays on a bed in the shelter. AP
City workers repair a war-damaged road in Bucha. Getty Images
City workers repair a war-damaged road in Bucha. Getty Images
The village council and police department buildings destroyed by Russian shelling in Lymany, just outside Mykolaiv, Ukraine. Getty Images
The village council and police department buildings destroyed by Russian shelling in Lymany, just outside Mykolaiv, Ukraine. Getty Images
Local residents receive bottled water from a truck, since there has been no running water for more than a week in Mykolaiv. Getty Images
Local residents receive bottled water from a truck, since there has been no running water for more than a week in Mykolaiv. Getty Images
A destroyed car on the road between Kyiv and Chernihiv. EPA
A destroyed car on the road between Kyiv and Chernihiv. EPA
A man looks at a burned APC in Yahidne, Chernihiv. EPA
A man looks at a burned APC in Yahidne, Chernihiv. EPA
A man holds part of a missile in Yahidne. EPA
A man holds part of a missile in Yahidne. EPA
A resident clears up a house that was occupied by Russian soldiers in Yahidne. EPA
A resident clears up a house that was occupied by Russian soldiers in Yahidne. EPA
Local youth Vladyslav, 17, inspects the basement of the school building in Yahidne. EPA
Local youth Vladyslav, 17, inspects the basement of the school building in Yahidne. EPA
A local resident walks on the street in Yahidne. EPA
A local resident walks on the street in Yahidne. EPA
Local residents speak on the street next to war ruins. EPA
Local residents speak on the street next to war ruins. EPA
A destroyed garage in Ivanivka. EPA
A destroyed garage in Ivanivka. EPA
A man looks at bombs that litter a field in Ivanivka. EPA
A man looks at bombs that litter a field in Ivanivka. EPA
Natalia and her daughter climb a ladder, passing over a destroyed bridge in Kyiv. EPA
Natalia and her daughter climb a ladder, passing over a destroyed bridge in Kyiv. EPA

While the Russian advance won’t be “rapid” if the estimated 30,000 of Ukraine’s most capable forces were surrounded in Donbas but the invaders would “grind them down over time,” he said. “That would be enough for Putin to be able to claim it as a win.”

But Russian forces were still suffering “significant losses” and it was “inconceivable that it will not suffer more”.

The official stressed that the invasion had been a “strategic blunder” by the Kremlin, which had united the West and led to a rapid increase in defence budgets in light of the new threat. It would also take considerable time for Russia to rearm after it suffered sizeable losses.

The assessment of a Russian victory is likely to give greater impetus for western powers to provide Ukraine with more advanced weaponry in terms of warplanes, missiles and radar, military analysts have told The National.

On Women's Day
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The Bio

Favourite vegetable: “I really like the taste of the beetroot, the potatoes and the eggplant we are producing.”

Holiday destination: “I like Paris very much, it’s a city very close to my heart.”

Book: “Das Kapital, by Karl Marx. I am not a communist, but there are a lot of lessons for the capitalist system, if you let it get out of control, and humanity.”

Musician: “I like very much Fairuz, the Lebanese singer, and the other is Umm Kulthum. Fairuz is for listening to in the morning, Umm Kulthum for the night.”

EA Sports FC 26

Publisher: EA Sports

Consoles: PC, PlayStation 4/5, Xbox Series X/S

Rating: 3/5

Essentials
The flights: You can fly from the UAE to Iceland with one stop in Europe with a variety of airlines. Return flights with Emirates from Dubai to Stockholm, then Icelandair to Reykjavik, cost from Dh4,153 return. The whole trip takes 11 hours. British Airways flies from Abu Dhabi and Dubai to Reykjavik, via London, with return flights taking 12 hours and costing from Dh2,490 return, including taxes. 
The activities: A half-day Silfra snorkelling trip costs 14,990 Icelandic kronur (Dh544) with Dive.is. Inside the Volcano also takes half a day and costs 42,000 kronur (Dh1,524). The Jokulsarlon small-boat cruise lasts about an hour and costs 9,800 kronur (Dh356). Into the Glacier costs 19,500 kronur (Dh708). It lasts three to four hours.
The tours: It’s often better to book a tailor-made trip through a specialist operator. UK-based Discover the World offers seven nights, self-driving, across the island from £892 (Dh4,505) per person. This includes three nights’ accommodation at Hotel Husafell near Into the Glacier, two nights at Hotel Ranga and two nights at the Icelandair Hotel Klaustur. It includes car rental, plus an iPad with itinerary and tourist information pre-loaded onto it, while activities can be booked as optional extras. More information inspiredbyiceland.com

While you're here
Our family matters legal consultant

Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais

Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.

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Director: Joseph Kosinski

Rating: 4/5

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Various Artists 
Habibi Funk: An Eclectic Selection Of Music From The Arab World (Habibi Funk)
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Defence review at a glance

• Increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 but given “turbulent times it may be necessary to go faster”

• Prioritise a shift towards working with AI and autonomous systems

• Invest in the resilience of military space systems.

• Number of active reserves should be increased by 20%

• More F-35 fighter jets required in the next decade

• New “hybrid Navy” with AUKUS submarines and autonomous vessels

How Voiss turns words to speech

The device has a screen reader or software that monitors what happens on the screen

The screen reader sends the text to the speech synthesiser

This converts to audio whatever it receives from screen reader, so the person can hear what is happening on the screen

A VOISS computer costs between $200 and $250 depending on memory card capacity that ranges from 32GB to 128GB

The speech synthesisers VOISS develops are free

Subsequent computer versions will include improvements such as wireless keyboards

Arabic voice in affordable talking computer to be added next year to English, Portuguese, and Spanish synthesiser

Partnerships planned during Expo 2020 Dubai to add more languages

At least 2.2 billion people globally have a vision impairment or blindness

More than 90 per cent live in developing countries

The Long-term aim of VOISS to reach the technology to people in poor countries with workshops that teach them to build their own device

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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: ARDH Collective
Based: Dubai
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Sector: Sustainability
Total funding: Self funded
Number of employees: 4
Try out the test yourself

Q1 Suppose you had $100 in a savings account and the interest rate was 2 per cent per year. After five years, how much do you think you would have in the account if you left the money to grow?
a) More than $102
b) Exactly $102
c) Less than $102
d) Do not know
e) Refuse to answer

Q2 Imagine that the interest rate on your savings account was 1 per cent per year and inflation was 2 per cent per year. After one year, how much would you be able to buy with the money in this account?
a) More than today
b) Exactly the same as today
c) Less than today
d) Do not know
e) Refuse to answer

Q4 Do you think that the following statement is true or false? “Buying a single company stock usually provides a safer return than a stock mutual fund.”
a) True
b) False
d) Do not know
e) Refuse to answer

The “Big Three” financial literacy questions were created by Professors Annamaria Lusardi of the George Washington School of Business and Olivia Mitchell, of the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. 

Answers: Q1 More than $102 (compound interest). Q2 Less than today (inflation). Q3 False (diversification).

Skewed figures

In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458. 

The alternatives

• Founded in 2014, Telr is a payment aggregator and gateway with an office in Silicon Oasis. It’s e-commerce entry plan costs Dh349 monthly (plus VAT). QR codes direct customers to an online payment page and merchants can generate payments through messaging apps.

• Business Bay’s Pallapay claims 40,000-plus active merchants who can invoice customers and receive payment by card. Fees range from 1.99 per cent plus Dh1 per transaction depending on payment method and location, such as online or via UAE mobile.

• Tap started in May 2013 in Kuwait, allowing Middle East businesses to bill, accept, receive and make payments online “easier, faster and smoother” via goSell and goCollect. It supports more than 10,000 merchants. Monthly fees range from US$65-100, plus card charges of 2.75-3.75 per cent and Dh1.2 per sale.

• 2checkout’s “all-in-one payment gateway and merchant account” accepts payments in 200-plus markets for 2.4-3.9 per cent, plus a Dh1.2-Dh1.8 currency conversion charge. The US provider processes online shop and mobile transactions and has 17,000-plus active digital commerce users.

• PayPal is probably the best-known online goods payment method - usually used for eBay purchases -  but can be used to receive funds, providing everyone’s signed up. Costs from 2.9 per cent plus Dh1.2 per transaction.

RESULT

Huddersfield Town 2 Manchester United 1
Huddersfield: Mooy (28'), Depoitre (33')
Manchester United: Rashford (78')

 

Man of the Match: Aaron Mooy (Huddersfield Town)

The specs

Engine: Dual 180kW and 300kW front and rear motors

Power: 480kW

Torque: 850Nm

Transmission: Single-speed automatic

Price: From Dh359,900 ($98,000)

On sale: Now

Zayed Sustainability Prize
War on waste

The Florida Project

Director: Sean Baker

Starring: Bria Vinaite, Brooklynn Prince, Willem Dafoe

Four stars

The five pillars of Islam

1. Fasting

2. Prayer

3. Hajj

4. Shahada

5. Zakat 

Our legal consultants

Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais

Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.

MORE ON TURKEY'S SYRIA OFFENCE
What can victims do?

Always use only regulated platforms

Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion

Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)

Report to local authorities

Warn others to prevent further harm

Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The schedule

December 5 - 23: Shooting competition, Al Dhafra Shooting Club

December 9 - 24: Handicrafts competition, from 4pm until 10pm, Heritage Souq

December 11 - 20: Dates competition, from 4pm

December 12 - 20: Sour milk competition

December 13: Falcon beauty competition

December 14 and 20: Saluki races

December 15: Arabian horse races, from 4pm

December 16 - 19: Falconry competition

December 18: Camel milk competition, from 7.30 - 9.30 am

December 20 and 21: Sheep beauty competition, from 10am

December 22: The best herd of 30 camels

The specs: 2019 Jeep Wrangler

Price, base: Dh132,000

Engine: 3.6-litre V6

Gearbox: Eight-speed automatic

Power: 285hp @ 6,400rpm

Torque: 347Nm @ 4,100rpm

Fuel economy, combined: 9.6L to 10.3L / 100km

Updated: April 22, 2022, 12:16 AM`
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