Poland has become a key arms supply route in the Ukraine war but is also becoming more vulnerable to attack from Russia, military analysts told The National.
With hundreds of armoured vehicles, sophisticated missiles and vital spare parts moving east, the potential for a subversive or direct strike has increased substantially.
There are also fears that Moscow’s intelligence operatives have infiltrated Poland to observe arms movements.
Britain’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced on Saturday that 150 armoured vehicles will be sent to the war, boosting a growing stockpile of weapons that could help Ukraine to oust Russian invaders.
But with the weapons increasing in sophistication, including drones and anti-ship missiles, Russia might consider targeting the supply chains, especially if it suffers defeats on the battlefield.
“In a way Poland is the Ukrainian rear,” said Orysia Lutsevych, a UK think-tank analyst currently in Poland. “This comes with all the risks at times of war: spill-over of the conflict, cyber-attacks in Poland, infowar and possible sabotage activities.”
Military expert Sam Cranny-Evans agreed that Moscow’s secret agents could be used.
“Russia might try to do something clandestine like it has for a while in Ukraine, but that carries enormous risk for them,” said the Royal United Services Institute analyst.
“It would be in Russia’s interests to keep this war to what it calls a local conflict. Expanding it horizontally to include Poland and others in a regional conflict would be very bad for Russia.”
The importance of Poland should not be underestimated the analysts said, both as a weapons supply route and a bastion against further incursion.
“Poland is key,” said Ms Lutsevych, of the London-based Chatham House think tank who is currently with family in Poland who have escaped Ukraine. “Both state and citizens understand the urgency of the situation and that Ukraine is a shield for Nato’s eastern flank. Also, the ground supply routes for military support allow Ukraine to resist and provide an exit route for Ukrainian women and children to a safe heaven. Many of them continue to work out of Poland to help the effort in Ukraine.”
The weapons sent to help Ukraine – in pictures
Weapons from around the world have been arriving in the Nato country – Poland borders Ukraine and Belarus – with vehicles and ammunition coming from America, Australia, Czech Republic and Slovakia.
It was claimed on Monday that an S-300 air defence system in eastern Ukraine that was donated by European allies was destroyed by a Russian Kalibur missile strike.
“Poland has been really important so far as a staging post to Ukraine,” Mr Cranny-Evans said. “Warsaw has made it clear that they want Russia defeated, so Moscow will be a bit wary of doing anything too risky near the border that might give Poland a pretext for greater involvement.”
The country also has a significant armoured manufacturing industry that could be used to service damaged Ukrainian vehicles or supply new stocks of T-72 tanks.
Russian secret services were heavily implicated in an arson attack on a Czech arms factory and fears of sabotage remain.
“Poland has one of the largest stocks of T-72s in Europe, and have developed fairly capable upgrades for them in partnership with Ukraine in the past,” Mr Cranny-Evans said.
While Moscow has vowed to strike at supply columns that support the Ukraine war effort it has yet to go beyond Ukraine’s border, although there is intelligence to suggest fuel depots could be targeted.
“Russia has certainly threatened to attack weapon convoys and now that the weaponry is increasing in its sophistication and hardware, that remains a possibility,” said Brig Ben Barry of the International Institute of Strategic Studies. “But that would certainly mean that Russia runs the risk of escalation in return from Poland.”
The threat of a Russian attack has led Britain to send its advanced Sky Sabre air defence system to Poland, joining the US Patriot anti-ballistic batteries that are defending key airports.
Brig Barry suggested that Russian agents, possibly from the GRU foreign intelligence service, would be conducting reconnaissance operations on foreign arms arrivals.
“They will certainly be spying on the kit that's going out to Poland and into Ukraine so they’ve got an idea of what they're up against,” he said. “If the new offensive goes badly for them in eastern Ukraine then that could lead Russia to consider a strike beyond Ukraine, whether covert or otherwise.”
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
PRESIDENTS CUP
Draw for Presidents Cup fourball matches on Thursday (Internationals first mention). All times UAE:
02.32am (Thursday): Marc Leishman/Joaquin Niemann v Tiger Woods/Justin Thomas
02.47am (Thursday): Adam Hadwin/Im Sung-jae v Xander Schauffele/Patrick Cantlay
03.02am (Thursday): Adam Scott/An Byeong-hun v Bryson DeChambeau/Tony Finau
03.17am (Thursday): Hideki Matsuyama/CT Pan v Webb Simpson/Patrick Reed
03.32am (Thursday): Abraham Ancer/Louis Oosthuizen v Dustin Johnson/Gary Woodland
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
Scorline
Iraq 1-0 UAE
Iraq Hussein 28’
Match info
Uefa Nations League Group B:
England v Spain, Saturday, 11.45pm (UAE)
Takreem Awards winners 2021
Corporate Leadership: Carl Bistany (Lebanon)
Cultural Excellence: Hoor Al Qasimi (UAE)
Environmental Development and Sustainability: Bkerzay (Lebanon)
Environmental Development and Sustainability: Raya Ani (Iraq)
Humanitarian and Civic Services: Women’s Programs Association (Lebanon)
Humanitarian and Civic Services: Osamah Al Thini (Libya)
Excellence in Education: World Innovation Summit for Education (WISE) (Qatar)
Outstanding Arab Woman: Balghis Badri (Sudan)
Scientific and Technological Achievement: Mohamed Slim Alouini (KSA)
Young Entrepreneur: Omar Itani (Lebanon)
Lifetime Achievement: Suad Al Amiry (Palestine)
Who is Allegra Stratton?
- Previously worked at The Guardian, BBC’s Newsnight programme and ITV News
- Took up a public relations role for Chancellor Rishi Sunak in April 2020
- In October 2020 she was hired to lead No 10’s planned daily televised press briefings
- The idea was later scrapped and she was appointed spokeswoman for Cop26
- Ms Stratton, 41, is married to James Forsyth, the political editor of The Spectator
- She has strong connections to the Conservative establishment
- Mr Sunak served as best man at her 2011 wedding to Mr Forsyth
Champions League Last 16
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Benfica (POR) v Ajax (NED)
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Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
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Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
Soldier F
“I was in complete disgust at the fact that only one person was to be charged for Bloody Sunday.
“Somebody later said to me, 'you just watch - they'll drop the charge against him'. And sure enough, the charges against Soldier F would go on to be dropped.
“It's pretty hard to think that 50 years on, the State is still covering up for what happened on Bloody Sunday.”
Jimmy Duddy, nephew of John Johnson
Libya's Gold
UN Panel of Experts found regime secretly sold a fifth of the country's gold reserves.
The panel’s 2017 report followed a trail to West Africa where large sums of cash and gold were hidden by Abdullah Al Senussi, Qaddafi’s former intelligence chief, in 2011.
Cases filled with cash that was said to amount to $560m in 100 dollar notes, that was kept by a group of Libyans in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.
A second stash was said to have been held in Accra, Ghana, inside boxes at the local offices of an international human rights organisation based in France.
Australia tour of Pakistan
March 4-8: First Test, Rawalpindi
March 12-16: Second Test, Karachi
March 21-25: Third Test, Lahore
March 29: First ODI, Rawalpindi
March 31: Second ODI, Rawalpindi
April 2: Third ODI, Rawalpindi
April 5: T20I, Rawalpindi
Unresolved crisis
Russia and Ukraine have been locked in a bitter conflict since 2014, when Ukraine’s Kremlin-friendly president was ousted, Moscow annexed Crimea and then backed a separatist insurgency in the east.
Fighting between the Russia-backed rebels and Ukrainian forces has killed more than 14,000 people. In 2015, France and Germany helped broker a peace deal, known as the Minsk agreements, that ended large-scale hostilities but failed to bring a political settlement of the conflict.
The Kremlin has repeatedly accused Kiev of sabotaging the deal, and Ukrainian officials in recent weeks said that implementing it in full would hurt Ukraine.
'The Sky is Everywhere'
Director:Josephine Decker
Stars:Grace Kaufman, Pico Alexander, Jacques Colimon
Rating:2/5
T20 WORLD CUP QUALIFIERS
Qualifier A, Muscat
(All matches to be streamed live on icc.tv)
Fixtures
Friday, February 18: 10am Oman v Nepal, Canada v Philippines; 2pm Ireland v UAE, Germany v Bahrain
Saturday, February 19: 10am Oman v Canada, Nepal v Philippines; 2pm UAE v Germany, Ireland v Bahrain
Monday, February 21: 10am Ireland v Germany, UAE v Bahrain; 2pm Nepal v Canada, Oman v Philippines
Tuesday, February 22: 2pm Semi-finals
Thursday, February 24: 2pm Final
UAE squad:Ahmed Raza(captain), Muhammad Waseem, Chirag Suri, Vriitya Aravind, Rohan Mustafa, Kashif Daud, Zahoor Khan, Alishan Sharafu, Raja Akifullah, Karthik Meiyappan, Junaid Siddique, Basil Hameed, Zafar Farid, Mohammed Boota, Mohammed Usman, Rahul Bhatia
PREMIER LEAGUE TABLE
1 Man City 26 20 3 3 63 17 63
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3 Chelsea 25 14 8 3 49 18 50
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5 West Ham 26 12 6 8 45 34 42
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6 Arsenal 23 13 3 7 36 26 42
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8 Tottenham 23 12 4 8 31 31 39
Profile Idealz
Company: Idealz
Founded: January 2018
Based: Dubai
Sector: E-commerce
Size: (employees): 22
Investors: Co-founders and Venture Partners (9 per cent)
Cricket World Cup League 2
UAE results
Lost to Oman by eight runs
Beat Namibia by three wickets
Lost to Oman by 12 runs
Beat Namibia by 43 runs
UAE fixtures
Free admission. All fixtures broadcast live on icc.tv
Tuesday March 15, v PNG at Sharjah Cricket Stadium
Friday March 18, v Nepal at Dubai International Stadium
Saturday March 19, v PNG at Dubai International Stadium
Monday March 21, v Nepal at Dubai International Stadium
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AiFlux – renewables, oil and gas
DevisionX – manufacturing
Event Gates – security and manufacturing
Farmdar – agriculture
Farmin – smart cities
Greener Crop – agriculture
Ipera.ai – space digitisation
Lune Technologies – fibre-optics
Monak – delivery
NutzenTech – environment
Nybl – machine learning
Occicor – shelf management
Olymon Solutions – smart automation
Pivony – user-generated data
PowerDev – energy big data
Sav – finance
Searover – renewables
Swftbox – delivery
Trade Capital Partners – FinTech
Valorafutbol – sports and entertainment
Workfam – employee engagement
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
Price, base / as tested: Dh182,178
Engine: 3.7-litre V6
Power: 350hp @ 7,400rpm
Torque: 374Nm @ 5,200rpm
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 10.5L / 100km
