A powerful surge of support for extremist candidates in France’s election has left President Emmanuel Macron and his centrist party isolated as the country’s only mainstream political force.
Early soundings on second-round voting intentions suggested Mr Macron would secure a second five-year term in the decider on April 24 but by a potentially vulnerable margin of 54-46, down from his thumping 66 per cent lead five years ago.
After decades of dominance, until Mr Macron cruised to victory in 2017, the traditional parties of left and right have been reduced to minor also-ran status as more than 20 million people voted for contenders from the extremes.
The first round of voting on Sunday quickly turned into a three-horse race with the president leading on 27.6 per cent, a little more than four points ahead of Marine Le Pen, leader of the populist, anti-immigration National Rally.
Close behind her was Jean-Luc Melenchon from the far-left La France Insoumise (France Unbowed), who at one point rose in estimates to within 0.8 per cent of overtaking her.
With all but a handful of overseas votes counted, Mr Melenchon looked set to finish on fractionally less than 22 per cent, 1.46 per cent lower than Ms Le Pen’s tally.
Another extreme right-winger, Eric Zemmour, whose impact flagged after an explosive entry into the campaign, won only 7 per cent. But taking account of minor candidates, broadly anti-system contenders of far left and right took nearly 56 per cent of the poll.
In large numbers, voters ignored the stigma of extremism and registered deep discontent at issues ranging from the cost-of-living crisis – central to the campaign amid soaring rises in the price of fuel, energy and food – to immigration and security.
Valerie Pecresse and Anne Hidalgo, heavyweight local government leaders and respectively the French equivalents of British Conservative and Labour challengers, suffered humiliation.
Ms Pecresse, the Gaullist centre-right president of the Paris regional council, polled 4.8 per cent, while Ms Hidalgo, socialist mayor of Paris, managed only 1.7 per cent.
One French analyst described the Parti Socialiste, for whom Francois Hollande was head of state until as recently as 2017, as “clinically dead”. Another, Jacques Reland, a fellow at the London-based think tank Global Policy Institute, had earlier told The National that Ms Pecresse’s campaign was a ”car crash”.
Sizeable no-show at the polls
The outcome was influenced by large-scale abstention, with slightly more than a quarter of the 48.8 million eligible voters choosing to support no one.
Among them, one former Macron supporter, a retired car mechanic, told France Info radio he felt he was being asked to choose between “kids squabbling in the playground, accusing one another of stealing their ideas”; a young Muslim market trader from the Parisian banlieue suspected his vote would change nothing.
The redistribution of votes cast for the 10 eliminated candidates and appeals to non-voters to turn out for the run-off will now be crucial to the final outcome.
Most if not all of Mr Zemmour’s supporters are expected to heed his call to switch allegiance to Ms Le Pen despite fierce clashes between the two during the campaign.
She once dismissed his Reconquest movement as a mixture of “traditionalist Catholics, pagans and a few Nazis”. He, in turn, portrayed himself as the only true candidate of the right and lured high-profile defectors from her camp, including her niece Marion Marechal.
Mr Macron will inevitably pick up extra votes following the appeals of Ms Pecresse, Ms Hidalgo and minor candidates to support him. But their combined clout is weak, handing a decisive role to Mr Melenchon’s seven million supporters.
In a passionate election night speech, Mr Melenchon spoke firmly against voting for Ms Le Pen but stopped well short of suggesting they should back Mr Macron.
The fear for the president is that many working-class, lower-income Melenchon voters see themselves as similar to the “forgotten little people” to whom Ms Le Pen appeals.
In a series of tweets analysing the first-round results, Philippe Marliere, professor of French and European politics at University College London, outlined the threat to Mr Macron.
“If Macron does not engage left-wing voters in between the two rounds … he will lose to Le Pen. This time around, a lot of left-wing voters who are totally exasperated by Macron will abstain. A minority will even vote for Le Pen.”
As Ms Le Pen’s champions insist, and even Mr Macron’s key associates acknowledge, the president’s future is far from secure as campaigning begins for the decider.
Will the pound fall to parity with the dollar?
The idea of pound parity now seems less far-fetched as the risk grows that Britain may split away from the European Union without a deal.
Rupert Harrison, a fund manager at BlackRock, sees the risk of it falling to trade level with the dollar on a no-deal Brexit. The view echoes Morgan Stanley’s recent forecast that the currency can plunge toward $1 (Dh3.67) on such an outcome. That isn’t the majority view yet – a Bloomberg survey this month estimated the pound will slide to $1.10 should the UK exit the bloc without an agreement.
New Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said that Britain will leave the EU on the October 31 deadline with or without an agreement, fuelling concern the nation is headed for a disorderly departure and fanning pessimism toward the pound. Sterling has fallen more than 7 per cent in the past three months, the worst performance among major developed-market currencies.
“The pound is at a much lower level now but I still think a no-deal exit would lead to significant volatility and we could be testing parity on a really bad outcome,” said Mr Harrison, who manages more than $10 billion in assets at BlackRock. “We will see this game of chicken continue through August and that’s likely negative for sterling,” he said about the deadlocked Brexit talks.
The pound fell 0.8 per cent to $1.2033 on Friday, its weakest closing level since the 1980s, after a report on the second quarter showed the UK economy shrank for the first time in six years. The data means it is likely the Bank of England will cut interest rates, according to Mizuho Bank.
The BOE said in November that the currency could fall even below $1 in an analysis on possible worst-case Brexit scenarios. Options-based calculations showed around a 6.4 per cent chance of pound-dollar parity in the next one year, markedly higher than 0.2 per cent in early March when prospects of a no-deal outcome were seemingly off the table.
Bloomberg
WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
THE APPRENTICE
Director: Ali Abbasi
Starring: Sebastian Stan, Maria Bakalova, Jeremy Strong
Rating: 3/5
French business
France has organised a delegation of leading businesses to travel to Syria. The group was led by French shipping giant CMA CGM, which struck a 30-year contract in May with the Syrian government to develop and run Latakia port. Also present were water and waste management company Suez, defence multinational Thales, and Ellipse Group, which is currently looking into rehabilitating Syrian hospitals.
The biog
Name: Greg Heinricks
From: Alberta, western Canada
Record fish: 56kg sailfish
Member of: International Game Fish Association
Company: Arabian Divers and Sportfishing Charters
THE%20SPECS
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Frankenstein in Baghdad
Ahmed Saadawi
Penguin Press
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
SPECS
Engine: 4-litre V8 twin-turbo
Power: 630hp
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: 8-speed Tiptronic automatic
Price: From Dh599,000
On sale: Now
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
HIJRA
Starring: Lamar Faden, Khairiah Nathmy, Nawaf Al-Dhufairy
Director: Shahad Ameen
Rating: 3/5
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
Russia's Muslim Heartlands
Dominic Rubin, Oxford
Washmen Profile
Date Started: May 2015
Founders: Rami Shaar and Jad Halaoui
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Laundry
Employees: 170
Funding: about $8m
Funders: Addventure, B&Y Partners, Clara Ventures, Cedar Mundi Partners, Henkel Ventures
Fixtures and results:
Wed, Aug 29:
- Malaysia bt Hong Kong by 3 wickets
- Oman bt Nepal by 7 wickets
- UAE bt Singapore by 215 runs
Thu, Aug 30:
- UAE bt Nepal by 78 runs
- Hong Kong bt Singapore by 5 wickets
- Oman bt Malaysia by 2 wickets
Sat, Sep 1: UAE v Hong Kong; Oman v Singapore; Malaysia v Nepal
Sun, Sep 2: Hong Kong v Oman; Malaysia v UAE; Nepal v Singapore
Tue, Sep 4: Malaysia v Singapore; UAE v Oman; Nepal v Hong Kong
Thu, Sep 6: Final
Sugary teas and iced coffees
The tax authority is yet to release a list of the taxed products, but it appears likely that sugary iced teas and cold coffees will be hit.
For instance, the non-fizzy drink AriZona Iced Tea contains 65 grams of sugar – about 16 teaspoons – per 680ml can. The average can costs about Dh6, which would rise to Dh9.
Cold coffee brands are likely to be hit too. Drinks such as Starbucks Bottled Mocha Frappuccino contain 31g of sugar in 270ml, while Nescafe Mocha in a can contains 15.6g of sugar in a 240ml can.
A list of the animal rescue organisations in the UAE
A timeline of the Historical Dictionary of the Arabic Language
- 2018: Formal work begins
- November 2021: First 17 volumes launched
- November 2022: Additional 19 volumes released
- October 2023: Another 31 volumes released
- November 2024: All 127 volumes completed
