Russia is keeping the Iran nuclear talks in suspense to make a point to its rivals in a ploy that also complicates Tehran’s negotiating position, analysts said as a deal between world powers remained tantalisingly out of reach in Vienna.
Western optimism that a deal was imminent has been replaced by near-silence from European negotiators and a warning from France that “the window of opportunity is closing”, amid frustration that Russia’s last-minute demand to discuss the sanctions on its own elite is prolonging the talks.
The late complication also appeared to take Iran by surprise, with senior officials putting out mixed signals on Thursday as they try to get sanctions lifted without antagonising a regime with similar interests in Moscow.
Behind the police patrols and luxury cars at Vienna’s Palais Coburg, the drawn-out diplomacy resumed on Thursday with negotiators yet to receive a final text that they could take back to their political leaders for approval.
While western officials hoped that the discussions were largely over, the Russian delegation is seeking assurances that sanctions over the war in Ukraine will not affect its bilateral ties with Iran, in what Moscow’s delegate Mikhail Ulyanov acknowledged was a late twist to the 11-month talks.
But analysts who spoke to The National played down the significance of the Russia-Iran trading relationship and said Moscow’s real interest appeared to be in retaliating against western sanctions.
“It’s mostly about Russia versus the West, and getting some leverage,” said Dr Hamidreza Azizi, an expert on Iranian foreign policy at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine came just as diplomats appeared to be bringing a revival of the 2015 nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, within sight in the closed-door negotiations.
A restoration of the deal would mean that sanctions on Iran are lifted in return for its compliance with limits on its nuclear activities, which are designed to stop it developing an atom bomb but which it has openly flouted since 2018.
'New circumstances'
Russia was one of the original parties to the deal along with Britain, France, Germany, China and the US, and Mr Ulyanov had long been notable for his optimism that the pact would be revived.
But he used his latest appearance outside the five-star Vienna negotiating venue to say that Russia had “the right to protect our interests” in view of the “new circumstances” brought about by western sanctions.
Those include an oil and gas embargo intended to hit Russia’s exports at a time when Iran could start selling fuel again if sanctions on Tehran are lifted.
However, this competition should not be a major concern to Moscow because Iran’s estimated reserve of 100 million barrels of oil would be a one-time sell-off that would not be a substitute for Russia’s long-term supplies, said Dr David Jalilvand, managing director of the consultancy Orient Matters in Berlin.
Russia’s crude oil exports, at 5m barrels a day, are higher than Iran’s total pre-sanctions level of production, at 3.8m a day, said Dr Jalilvand.
For the Russian delegation in Vienna, “the energy issue is not decisive — what matters is geopolitics,” he said.
Mr Ulyanov, meanwhile, denied Russia was sabotaging the talks. He rejected a suggestion from a former US official that it was seeking to use Iran as an outlet for sanction-free business as it faces isolation from much of the world economy.
European delegations would not be drawn on Russia’s latest moves, which threw up the possibility of a deal being blocked or a workaround being found without Russia.
The talks are based around the US and Iran returning to compliance with the pact, leaving it open to interpretation whether Russian assent is strictly necessary.
But any alterations to what was signed in 2015 could leave the deal vulnerable to a congressional challenge in the US, where critics of the JCPOA are seeking an opportunity to stop it in its tracks.
Another option would be a more limited agreement between Iran and the US, but this would require direct negotiations between the two sides which have not taken place during the 11-month talks.
Iran in 'difficult position'
Iran appeared to be caught out by Russia’s gambit and would probably not have approved because the demands from Moscow go beyond the terms of the JCPOA, said Dr Azizi.
That conflicts with Iran’s insistence that the talks must stick to the JCPOA and not stray into issues such as ballistic missiles and support for regional militias which the US and Gulf countries would like to discuss.
Tehran initially said it was waiting for an explanation from Russia, which it received in the form of a phone call from Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. A foreign ministry spokesman separately said that Iran understood Russia's concern.
That statement “could be a sign that Iran does not want to antagonise Russia in light of the broader strategic relationship between the two countries as well as Russia’s key role at the nuclear negotiations,” said Dr Jalilvand.
Dr Azizi said Iran was “in a very difficult position, because on the one hand it needs the deal and sanctions relief, and on the other hand it cannot risk its relationship with Russia,” said Dr Azizi.
Although trading links are limited, Iran and Russia have a history of co-operation around the region and “a shared worldview in seeing US influence as being negative”, said Dr Sanam Vakil of the Chatham House think tank.
In another ambiguous set of statements on Thursday, senior Iranian officials said they were negotiating according to plan but that Iran’s defensive power should not be reduced and that the talks were getting “knottier by the hour”.
President Ebrahim Raisi said the government had “vigorously pursued the removal” of sanctions that have weakened Iran’s economy, while other officials have cautioned against torpedoing the negotiations.
Dr Vakil said there were divisions within Iran’s ruling circles about how much the country should warm to Russia and that its negotiators would probably try to find a way of keeping the JCPOA alive.
“There are many members of the Iranian security establishment that have developed admiration and strong ties with Russia,” she said. “You have others inside Iran that are more suspicious of Russia’s influence.”
What the law says
Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.
“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.
“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”
If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.
Abu Dhabi World Pro 2019 remaining schedule:
Wednesday April 24: Abu Dhabi World Professional Jiu-Jitsu Championship, 11am-6pm
Thursday April 25: Abu Dhabi World Professional Jiu-Jitsu Championship, 11am-5pm
Friday April 26: Finals, 3-6pm
Saturday April 27: Awards ceremony, 4pm and 8pm
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The years Ramadan fell in May
Fixtures
Tuesday - 5.15pm: Team Lebanon v Alger Corsaires; 8.30pm: Abu Dhabi Storms v Pharaohs
Wednesday - 5.15pm: Pharaohs v Carthage Eagles; 8.30pm: Alger Corsaires v Abu Dhabi Storms
Thursday - 4.30pm: Team Lebanon v Pharaohs; 7.30pm: Abu Dhabi Storms v Carthage Eagles
Friday - 4.30pm: Pharaohs v Alger Corsaires; 7.30pm: Carthage Eagles v Team Lebanon
Saturday - 4.30pm: Carthage Eagles v Alger Corsaires; 7.30pm: Abu Dhabi Storms v Team Lebanon
At a glance - Zayed Sustainability Prize 2020
Launched: 2008
Categories: Health, energy, water, food, global high schools
Prize: Dh2.2 million (Dh360,000 for global high schools category)
Winners’ announcement: Monday, January 13
Impact in numbers
335 million people positively impacted by projects
430,000 jobs created
10 million people given access to clean and affordable drinking water
50 million homes powered by renewable energy
6.5 billion litres of water saved
26 million school children given solar lighting
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
Founder: Ayman Badawi
Date started: Test product September 2016, paid launch January 2017
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Software
Size: Seven employees
Funding: $170,000 in angel investment
Funders: friends
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
Company profile
Date started: 2015
Founder: John Tsioris and Ioanna Angelidaki
Based: Dubai
Sector: Online grocery delivery
Staff: 200
Funding: Undisclosed, but investors include the Jabbar Internet Group and Venture Friends
Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
What sanctions would be reimposed?
Under ‘snapback’, measures imposed on Iran by the UN Security Council in six resolutions would be restored, including:
- An arms embargo
- A ban on uranium enrichment and reprocessing
- A ban on launches and other activities with ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, as well as ballistic missile technology transfer and technical assistance
- A targeted global asset freeze and travel ban on Iranian individuals and entities
- Authorisation for countries to inspect Iran Air Cargo and Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines cargoes for banned goods
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
The UN General Assembly President in quotes:
YEMEN: “The developments we have seen are promising. We really hope that the parties are going to respect the agreed ceasefire. I think that the sense of really having the political will to have a peace process is vital. There is a little bit of hope and the role that the UN has played is very important.”
PALESTINE: “There is no easy fix. We need to find the political will and comply with the resolutions that we have agreed upon.”
OMAN: “It is a very important country in our system. They have a very important role to play in terms of the balance and peace process of that particular part of the world, in that their position is neutral. That is why it is very important to have a dialogue with the Omani authorities.”
REFORM OF THE SECURITY COUNCIL: “This is complicated and it requires time. It is dependent on the effort that members want to put into the process. It is a process that has been going on for 25 years. That process is slow but the issue is huge. I really hope we will see some progress during my tenure.”
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
MATCH INFO
Northern Warriors 92-1 (10 ovs)
Russell 37 no, Billings 35 no
Team Abu Dhabi 93-4 (8.3 ovs)
Wright 48, Moeen 30, Green 2-22
Team Abu Dhabi win by six wickets
ARGYLLE
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Third Test
Result: India won by 203 runs
Series: England lead five-match series 2-1
How to help
Call the hotline on 0502955999 or send "thenational" to the following numbers:
2289 - Dh10
2252 - Dh50
6025 - Dh20
6027 - Dh100
6026 - Dh200
The specs: 2018 Jaguar E-Pace First Edition
Price, base / as tested: Dh186,480 / Dh252,735
Engine: 2.0-litre four-cylinder
Power: 246hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 365Nm @ 1,200rpm
Transmission: Nine-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 7.7L / 100km
