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The world cannot rely on leaders and military officers to make rational decisions when their fingers are over the nuclear launch button, new research says.
Analysts at Chatham House, a London think tank, said personal beliefs, biases and grievances could cloud the judgments of the heads of nuclear-armed states during the war in Ukraine.
The research was made public as diplomats seek to prevent Russia's invasion of Ukraine from escalating into a wider European conflict that would risk putting the nuclear arsenals of Nato powers and Russia in play.
Russian President Vladimir Putin added to the world’s alarm when he told senior defence officials to put nuclear forces on high alert.
Britain’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that was a distraction, while the US described it as provocative rhetoric and said it was not changing its own alert level.
But analysts who looked at three nuclear scares in the 1980s and 1990s said it was not certain that sensible human judgment would prevail, finding that the decision to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons "is not a rational process".
“It is impossible to read what is happening in Putin’s mind,” said report author Beyza Unal, who said it was important for other powers to make their nuclear posture as clear as possible.
“Nuclear decision-making is where rational irrationality is very common as personal beliefs, cognitive biases, and historical grievances become more attractive and can cloud judgments,” she said.
One of the cases studied from the Cold War, a 1983 false alarm when Soviet missile defences appeared to show an incoming American missile, came at what was also a time of heightened East-West tensions.
Analysts said Stanislav Petrov, the Soviet military officer who decided not to treat the threat as genuine, relied partly on a “feeling in his gut” that the US would not launch a surprise attack in this way.
The way this happened “makes clear that there are moments at which different decisions could have been reached,” the report said.
In the same year, a Nato preparedness exercise called Able Archer 83 gave rise to fears in Moscow that the drills were cover for a genuine first strike operation.
Individual decision-making again proved critical to defusing the crisis, and the lesson from that close call is that the two sides should maintain “effective, open and genuine communication channels” to prevent misinterpretation, the researchers said.
In the third case, in 1995, Norwegian and US scientists launched a rocket for a scientific programme which again triggered a missile alert in Moscow, with conflicting reports on whether then-president Boris Yeltsin was alerted.
Drawing on all of these incidents, analysts said that there was a risk of misinterpretation and miscommunication and the severe stress of a crisis might impair decision-making.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine came only weeks after the leaders of the US, Russia, Britain, France and China issued a joint statement committing their countries to the principle that a nuclear war must never be fought and could never be won.
But “for far too long, decision-makers developed their policies and strategies on the basis of rational parameters,” the report said.
This led to the formation of nuclear policies, such as mutually assured destruction, which rested “primarily on the assumption that decisions will be rational”, when in fact there is no knowing how people might react.
They recommended training decision-makers and duty officers in how their biases and impulses might affect them at moments of crisis.
Other proposals included learning from past nuclear scares and setting up dedicated risk reduction centres that receive notifications of missile tests.
“Today there is increased complexity across different levels,” partly because the US and Russia are no longer the world’s two premier superpowers, Dr Unal said.
“Similarly, states do not agree on what constitutes as risk or threat. Putin’s understanding of nuclear risk, for instance, is likely to differ from that of the West.”
Turkish Ladies
Various artists, Sony Music Turkey
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League final:
Who: Real Madrid v Liverpool
Where: NSC Olimpiyskiy Stadium, Kiev, Ukraine
When: Saturday, May 26, 10.45pm (UAE)
TV: Match on BeIN Sports
Globalization and its Discontents Revisited
Joseph E. Stiglitz
W. W. Norton & Company
What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
List of alleged parties
- May 15 2020: Boris Johnson is said to have attended a Downing Street pizza party
- 27 Nov 2020: PM gives speech at leaving do for his staff
- Dec 10 2020: Staff party held by then-education secretary Gavin Williamson
- Dec 13 2020: Mr Johnson and his then-fiancee Carrie Symonds throw a flat party
- Dec 14 2020: Shaun Bailey holds staff party at Conservative Party headquarters
- Dec 15 2020: PM takes part in a staff quiz
- Dec 18 2020: Downing Street Christmas party
SPECS
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The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
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Price: From Dh117,059
Who was Alfred Nobel?
The Nobel Prize was created by wealthy Swedish chemist and entrepreneur Alfred Nobel.
- In his will he dictated that the bulk of his estate should be used to fund "prizes to those who, during the preceding year, have conferred the greatest benefit to humankind".
- Nobel is best known as the inventor of dynamite, but also wrote poetry and drama and could speak Russian, French, English and German by the age of 17. The five original prize categories reflect the interests closest to his heart.
- Nobel died in 1896 but it took until 1901, following a legal battle over his will, before the first prizes were awarded.
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What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)
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Where to Find Me by Alba Arikha
Alma Books
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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The biog
Age: 59
From: Giza Governorate, Egypt
Family: A daughter, two sons and wife
Favourite tree: Ghaf
Runner up favourite tree: Frankincense
Favourite place on Sir Bani Yas Island: “I love all of Sir Bani Yas. Every spot of Sir Bani Yas, I love it.”
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
Who has lived at The Bishops Avenue?
- George Sainsbury of the supermarket dynasty, sugar magnate William Park Lyle and actress Dame Gracie Fields were residents in the 1930s when the street was only known as ‘Millionaires’ Row’.
- Then came the international super rich, including the last king of Greece, Constantine II, the Sultan of Brunei and Indian steel magnate Lakshmi Mittal who was at one point ranked the third richest person in the world.
- Turkish tycoon Halis Torprak sold his mansion for £50m in 2008 after spending just two days there. The House of Saud sold 10 properties on the road in 2013 for almost £80m.
- Other residents have included Iraqi businessman Nemir Kirdar, singer Ariana Grande, holiday camp impresario Sir Billy Butlin, businessman Asil Nadir, Paul McCartney’s former wife Heather Mills.
Hunting park to luxury living
- Land was originally the Bishop of London's hunting park, hence the name
- The road was laid out in the mid 19th Century, meandering through woodland and farmland
- Its earliest houses at the turn of the 20th Century were substantial detached properties with extensive grounds
PREMIER LEAGUE RESULTS
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