Leadership of Nato is not a job for someone afraid of the limelight. The occupant of the post is rarely out of the headlines, not least in recent weeks when the fate of Ukraine under the shadow of a Russian military build-up has posed a clear and present challenge to the Western Alliance.
It is a sensitive time therefore for the 72-year old organisation to look for a new leader but that is exactly the process that the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation has now begun.
Facing down Russia's challenges to the post-Cold War order, adapting to modern warfare and keeping the peace between 30 armed forces with three nuclear deterrents: one of the world’s most demanding security posts will be up for grabs this year when Nato chooses a new secretary general.
The new leader will take over an alliance facing questions over its future after it was humbled by the chaotic end of its 20-year mission in Afghanistan, which brought uncomfortable truths to the surface about its deep reliance on American military power.
A successor will be named no later than October, when Jens Stoltenberg reaches the end of his eight-year term. He has applied to become the next governor of Norway’s central bank.
There is no formal procedure to choose a successor, whose roles include acting as Nato’s chief spokesman, building consensus between allies, and, in an extreme case, helping to trigger its mutual defence clause.
Instead, the winner will emerge from closed-door consultations between allies in an opaque process not unlike that used to choose a new pope.
There is one unwritten rule: the secretary general has always been a European, and the military’s Supreme Allied Commander always an American.
But nobody could become secretary general without support from the US, which accounts for more than a third of the alliance’s population and two thirds of its military spending.
“It’s meant to be an alliance of equals, but of course there’s a first among equals, which is the United States. So any candidate has got to satisfy the United States,” said Ian Davis, the founder of independent analyst Nato Watch.
The US has signalled at recent summits that addressing China’s ambitions should be part of Nato’s remit, Mr Davis said, making this a potential condition of Washington’s support.
He said the secretive process jarred with Nato’s self-described mission of upholding democratic values.
“It is rather archaic. I wonder if in this day and age we ought to [have an] open and transparent selection process for what is one of the major international jobs on offer,” he told The National.
Nato plans to revamp its mission statement this year with greater emphasis on modern-day threats such as cyber warfare and climate change, with results expected to be unveiled at a Madrid summit in June.
The horse-trading for the top job can veer beyond discussions about North Atlantic security and into domestic politics. In 2009, Turkey held up the nomination of eventual winner Anders Fogh Rasmussen because of a controversy over offensive cartoons published in his native Denmark.
Brexit problems for Britain
This year, political concerns could scupper Britain’s hopes of taking the top job for the first time since George Robertson led Nato from 1999 to 2003 – a term during which he invoked the mutual defence clause after 9/11.
The UK government has signalled interest in proposing a British candidate, with former prime minister Theresa May openly endorsed last year by UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace.
William Hague, a former British foreign secretary, and Mark Sedwill, a civil servant with experience in tricky diplomatic roles in Afghanistan and Pakistan, have also been mentioned as contenders.
But Britain’s ties with its European neighbours were strained by Brexit, and France was especially enraged by the UK’s role in the Aukus pact that torpedoed an Australian submarine deal with French manufacturers.
“I think it’s unlikely it will be a Brit this time,” Mr Davis said. “I just don’t think they’ll get that past the French, to be honest, because of Brexit and because of the Aukus nuclear submarine arrangement.”
Eyes on Eastern Europe
Italy could be in the running too, with former premier Enrico Letta and the EU’s erstwhile foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini both suggested as possible candidates. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte and Germany’s former defence secretary Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer have also been mentioned.
But some have expressed the view that it is time for an Eastern European to take charge for the first time to send a message to Moscow as it plots to constrain Nato in its former Soviet sphere of influence.
Jakub Kulhanek, a former Czech foreign minister, made this point last month when he said an eastern secretary general could help to unite the alliance.
Nato solidarity took a hit during the turbulent Donald Trump years, and the messy exit from Afghanistan led to disagreements in Europe over how far to pursue autonomy from Washington.
There is also a feeling in some quarters that Nato should be led by a woman for the first time, Mr Davis said, after 13 consecutive male leaders.
He mentioned three female contenders, all former presidents, from Eastern Europe: Croatia’s Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic, Lithuania’s Dalia Grybauskaite, and Estonia’s Kersti Kaljulaid.
Ms Grabar-Kitarovic is a former assistant secretary general of Nato – the first woman in that role – and has the backing of Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic to move to the top job.
Ms Kaljulaid is a prominent critic of Russia and was described by one Estonian newspaper as a potential “Joan of Arc” for the alliance, invoking a French medieval heroine.
But the shadowy process means an unexpected candidate could rise to the top – mirroring what happened in the EU when Ursula von der Leyen came from nowhere to take on the European Commission presidency three years ago.
“Often, someone comes out of the blue,” said Mr Davis, who said Nato watchers had not seen Mr Stoltenberg’s appointment coming during the last round of negotiations in 2014.
“Quite contentious bilateral things between countries can knock a candidate off course. It’s really difficult to say who it’s going to be.”
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
The specs: 2018 Jaguar F-Type Convertible
Price, base / as tested: Dh283,080 / Dh318,465
Engine: 2.0-litre inline four-cylinder
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 295hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 400Nm @ 1,500rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 7.2L / 100km
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Results
2pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 40,000 (Dirt) 1,200m, Winner: AF Thayer, Tadhg O’Shea (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer).
2.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 40,000 (D) 1,200m, Winner: AF Sahwa, Nathan Crosse, Mohamed Ramadan.
3pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 40,000 (D) 1,000m, Winner: AF Thobor, Szczepan Mazur, Ernst Oertel.
3.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 40,000 (D) 2,000m, Winner: AF Mezmar, Szczepan Mazur, Ernst Oertel.
4pm: Sheikh Hamdan bin Rashid Al Maktoum Cup presented by Longines (TB) Dh 200,000 (D) 1,700m, Winner: Galvanize, Nathan Cross, Doug Watson.
4.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 40,000 (D) 1,700m, Winner: Ajaj, Bernardo Pinheiro, Mohamed Daggash.
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
THE NEW BATCH'S FOCUS SECTORS
AiFlux – renewables, oil and gas
DevisionX – manufacturing
Event Gates – security and manufacturing
Farmdar – agriculture
Farmin – smart cities
Greener Crop – agriculture
Ipera.ai – space digitisation
Lune Technologies – fibre-optics
Monak – delivery
NutzenTech – environment
Nybl – machine learning
Occicor – shelf management
Olymon Solutions – smart automation
Pivony – user-generated data
PowerDev – energy big data
Sav – finance
Searover – renewables
Swftbox – delivery
Trade Capital Partners – FinTech
Valorafutbol – sports and entertainment
Workfam – employee engagement
Destroyer
Director: Karyn Kusama
Cast: Nicole Kidman, Toby Kebbell, Sebastian Stan
Rating: 3/5
UAE release: January 31
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Read more about the coronavirus
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TCL INFO
Teams:
Punjabi Legends Owners: Inzamam-ul-Haq and Intizar-ul-Haq; Key player: Misbah-ul-Haq
Pakhtoons Owners: Habib Khan and Tajuddin Khan; Key player: Shahid Afridi
Maratha Arabians Owners: Sohail Khan, Ali Tumbi, Parvez Khan; Key player: Virender Sehwag
Bangla Tigers Owners: Shirajuddin Alam, Yasin Choudhary, Neelesh Bhatnager, Anis and Rizwan Sajan; Key player: TBC
Colombo Lions Owners: Sri Lanka Cricket; Key player: TBC
Kerala Kings Owners: Hussain Adam Ali and Shafi Ul Mulk; Key player: Eoin Morgan
Venue Sharjah Cricket Stadium
Format 10 overs per side, matches last for 90 minutes
Timeline October 25: Around 120 players to be entered into a draft, to be held in Dubai; December 21: Matches start; December 24: Finals
School counsellors on mental well-being
Schools counsellors in Abu Dhabi have put a number of provisions in place to help support pupils returning to the classroom next week.
Many children will resume in-person lessons for the first time in 10 months and parents previously raised concerns about the long-term effects of distance learning.
Schools leaders and counsellors said extra support will be offered to anyone that needs it. Additionally, heads of years will be on hand to offer advice or coping mechanisms to ease any concerns.
“Anxiety this time round has really spiralled, more so than from the first lockdown at the beginning of the pandemic,” said Priya Mitchell, counsellor at The British School Al Khubairat in Abu Dhabi.
“Some have got used to being at home don’t want to go back, while others are desperate to get back.
“We have seen an increase in depressive symptoms, especially with older pupils, and self-harm is starting younger.
“It is worrying and has taught us how important it is that we prioritise mental well-being.”
Ms Mitchell said she was liaising more with heads of year so they can support and offer advice to pupils if the demand is there.
The school will also carry out mental well-being checks so they can pick up on any behavioural patterns and put interventions in place to help pupils.
At Raha International School, the well-being team has provided parents with assessment surveys to see how they can support students at home to transition back to school.
“They have created a Well-being Resource Bank that parents have access to on information on various domains of mental health for students and families,” a team member said.
“Our pastoral team have been working with students to help ease the transition and reduce anxiety that [pupils] may experience after some have been nearly a year off campus.
"Special secondary tutorial classes have also focused on preparing students for their return; going over new guidelines, expectations and daily schedules.”
What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
The bio
Favourite book: The Alchemist by Paulo Coelho
Favourite travel destination: Maldives and south of France
Favourite pastime: Family and friends, meditation, discovering new cuisines
Favourite Movie: Joker (2019). I didn’t like it while I was watching it but then afterwards I loved it. I loved the psychology behind it.
Favourite Author: My father for sure
Favourite Artist: Damien Hurst
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
About Karol Nawrocki
• Supports military aid for Ukraine, unlike other eurosceptic leaders, but he will oppose its membership in western alliances.
• A nationalist, his campaign slogan was Poland First. "Let's help others, but let's take care of our own citizens first," he said on social media in April.
• Cultivates tough-guy image, posting videos of himself at shooting ranges and in boxing rings.
• Met Donald Trump at the White House and received his backing.
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Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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United States
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China
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UAE
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Japan
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5
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Norway
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Canada
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Singapore
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Australia
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Saudi Arabia
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South Korea
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How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
- Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
- Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
- Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
- Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
- Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
- The British School Al Khubairat (Abu Dhabi) - Dh54,170
- Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269
*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
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F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
