ANKARA // Recep Tayyip Erdogan is set to secure his place in history as Turkey’s first popularly-elected president on Sunday, but his tightening grip on power has polarised the nation, worried allies and raised fears of creeping authoritarianism.
Mr Erdogan’s core supporters, religious conservatives, see his likely rise to the presidency as the crowning achievement of his drive to reshape Turkey. In a decade as prime minister, he has broken the hold of a secular elite that had dominated since Mustafa Kemal Ataturk founded the modern republic on the ruins of the Ottoman Empire in 1923.
Mr Erdogan could, aides have said, serve two presidential terms and rule to 2023, the 100th anniversary of the secular republic. Such symbolism is not lost on a leader whose passionate speeches are frequently laced with references to Ottoman history.
“On the assumption that Erdogan wins, what we’re going to have is the beginning of a new era,” said Marc Pierini, a former EU ambassador to Turkey and visiting scholar at the Carnegie Europe think tank.
Until now, Turkish presidents have been chosen by parliament but under a new law, the three candidates will face the national electorate as they compete for a five-year term.
Electoral rules ban the publication of opinion polls in the immediate run-up to the vote, but two surveys last month put Mr Erdogan’s support on 55-56 per cent. This is 20 points ahead of the main opposition candidate, Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu, and enough to secure the simple majority needed to win in the first round.
Selahattin Demirtas, head of the pro-Kurdish left-wing People’s Democratic Party, was running a distant third.
Mr Erdogan has made no secret of his ambition to change the constitution and establish an executive presidency.
“When a man like Erdogan becomes the first popularly-elected president, even if the constitution remains unchanged, it will mean Turkey has switched to a semi-presidential system,” said a senior official from his ruling AKP. “Starting this Sunday, there will be a new system.”
A strong Erdogan victory would mark an extraordinary recovery from one of his most difficult years in office. He has bounced back from anti-government demonstrations last summer, a corruption scandal months later and a power struggle with his former ally, US-based cleric Fethullah Gulen.
Mr Erdogan accuses Mr Gulen, whose network of followers wield influence in the police and judiciary, of unleashing the graft scandal in a plot to remove him and has responded by purging institutions of those thought to be loyal to the cleric.
It is a battle he has vowed to pursue as president.
Timothy Ash, head of emerging markets research at Standard Bank in London, compares his tactical skills with those of past US and British leaders.
“Never bet against Erdogan, as he is simply a brilliant political operator – a Turkish version of Bill Clinton or Tony Blair in terms of their ability to feel and shape the mood of a majority of the nation,” Mr Ash said in a recent note.
Mr Erdogan’s reactions when threatened can appear impulsive and autocratic. From a heavy-handed police crackdown on the protests last summer, to bans on YouTube and Twitter or comments in recent weeks likening Israel’s offensive in Gaza to the actions of Hitler, Mr Erdogan has drawn growing criticism in western capitals and looked isolated internationally.
“An almighty presidency implies polarising discourse, implies keeping the rule of law back ... All of this is not EU-compatible,” Mr Pierini said. “Despite all this, you have a Turkey which is heavily reliant on Nato for its security. It’s going to be a very difficult relationship.”
In the weeks following his likely victory, Mr Erdogan will chair AKP meetings for the last time and oversee selection of a new party leader, likely to be his future prime minister.
Under the constitution, Mr Erdogan would have to break with the party once he is inaugurated on August 28. It is therefore vital for him that a staunch loyalist heads the party he founded.
Should his influence over the party wane, Mr Erdogan could struggle to force through the constitutional changes he wants to create an executive presidency, a reform which requires either a two-thirds majority in parliament or a popular vote.
“Removing Erdogan from the post of prime minister and putting him in the position of president with a constitution he is unhappy with seems to be a recipe for instability,” said Sinan Ulgen, head of the Istanbul-based Centre for Economic and Foreign Policy Studies.
Senior AKP officials say foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu, who has strong support within the party bureaucracy and has been mr Erdogan’s right-hand man internationally, is the top choice to succeed him, although former transport minister Binali Yildirim is also trying to position himself for the job.
* Reuters
ADCC AFC Women’s Champions League Group A fixtures
October 3: v Wuhan Jiangda Women’s FC
October 6: v Hyundai Steel Red Angels Women’s FC
October 9: v Sabah FA
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
Zayed Sustainability Prize
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
THE SPECS
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine
Power: 420kW
Torque: 780Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh1,350,000
On sale: Available for preorder now
Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
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In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
THE%20SPECS
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The biog
Marital status: Separated with two young daughters
Education: Master's degree from American Univeristy of Cairo
Favourite book: That Is How They Defeat Despair by Salwa Aladian
Favourite Motto: Their happiness is your happiness
Goal: For Nefsy to become his legacy long after he is gon
The years Ramadan fell in May
MEDIEVIL%20(1998)
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Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
