Western diplomats hoped that easing sanctions would eventually help modify Iran's behaviour in Syria, but history has shown the opposite to be true. Getty
Western diplomats hoped that easing sanctions would eventually help modify Iran's behaviour in Syria, but history has shown the opposite to be true. Getty
Western diplomats hoped that easing sanctions would eventually help modify Iran's behaviour in Syria, but history has shown the opposite to be true. Getty
Western diplomats hoped that easing sanctions would eventually help modify Iran's behaviour in Syria, but history has shown the opposite to be true. Getty

Tehran's ‘blueprint' for exporting militants across region funded by nuclear deal


  • English
  • Arabic

The new US administration has made clear that it will re-engage with Iran’s leadership on its nuclear programme. This is understandable but, before it does so, it should frame the engagement very carefully.

While it is true that the 2015 nuclear agreement had a limiting impact on Iran’s nuclear programme, it suffered from two major problems: its narrow scope and the absence of the regional players. Since 2015, both of these issues have become more, not less, important.

Supporters of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal – or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – claim it was never intended to address issues beyond Tehran’s nuclear programme.

The hope was that it would provide a platform for collaboration on other issues, building trust and ultimately normalising the Islamic Republic. Yet just 13 days after it was signed in July 2015, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ruled out follow-on negotiations, saying that neither the deal nor any material incentives would alter his country’s support for its regional militias or its ballistic missile programme.

While a piecemeal approach to resolving disputes with Iran sounds plausible, in practice the nuclear agreement could not and cannot be separated from its regional destabilisation or its ballistic missile programme.

The then US President Donald Trump, above at a Stop The Iran Nuclear Deal protest in front of the U.S. Capitol in Washington, pulled out of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in May 2018. Linda Davidson/The Washington Post via Getty Images
The then US President Donald Trump, above at a Stop The Iran Nuclear Deal protest in front of the U.S. Capitol in Washington, pulled out of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in May 2018. Linda Davidson/The Washington Post via Getty Images

Indeed, one of the unintended consequences of the nuclear deal was that billions of dollars in sanctions relief that Iran received as a result enabled it to strengthen these other activities.

The rationale for excluding regional nations from talks with Tehran was, and remains, less justifiable. They are the direct targets of Iran’s foreign policy, which is still based on three ideological pillars: exporting its so-called Islamic Revolution; supporting Islamist and anti-western movements; and eradicating Israel.

In pursuing these objectives, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) – the clerical regime’s ideological army – has for more than four decades supported a range of armed militias across the region, from grassroots groups with shared or tactical interests, such as Hamas and the Taliban, to manufacturing its own ideologically compliant militias such as Hezbollah in Lebanon.

These paramilitary groups have continually destabilised the Middle East with regional nations paying the price of letting Tehran’s actions go unchecked.

As our recent report for The Tony Blair Institute for Global Change reveals, in recent years the activities of the IRGC and its network of militias in the Middle East have both expanded and become more dangerous. Crucially, these shifts occurred as international sanctions were being eased on Tehran as part of what would become the JCPOA.

The 2013-2015 period is often praised in the West as a successful period of diplomacy with Tehran. Yet, while western diplomats were sitting around the negotiating table with Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, the late IRGC general Qassem Suleimani was executing a ruthless plan to crush the Syrian people’s revolution and save the Assad regime from collapse.

We now know that western diplomats had hoped that easing sanctions on Iran would eventually moderate its behaviour in Syria and the wider region. But as history has shown, the opposite was true.

The IRGC and its network of militias are fighting for the ambition of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, pictured above this week addressing commanders of the air force, to create a pan-Shia state and eradicate the State of Israel. AFP
The IRGC and its network of militias are fighting for the ambition of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, pictured above this week addressing commanders of the air force, to create a pan-Shia state and eradicate the State of Israel. AFP

Tehran’s operations in support of the Assad regime triggered the most significant shift in its cultivation of Shia militancy: the expansion of IRGC-manufactured militias. After its success in Syria, the creation of these "Gold Standard" groups provided Iran with a blueprint for exporting its militancy across the region.

But far from simply being a form of state deterrence, our report reveals the deep-rooted ideological nature of these militias.

As well as arming, training and financing these manufactured militias, the IRGC proactively recruited and radicalised their fighters, working with Iran’s soft-power organisations to indoctrinate them with the clerical regime’s extremist Shia Islamist ideology.

Like the IRGC, these fighters are taught to reject the concept of the nation-state and see themselves as "warriors without borders", fighting for Mr Khamenei’s ambition to create a pan-Shia state and eradicate the state of Israel.

Manufactured militias are now the fastest growing type of Iranian-backed groups in the region. Operating throughout the Middle East, they constitute the greatest threat to its stability and the normalisation of relations between the Arab states and Israel.

The Biden administration has made clear that it will re-engage Iran’s leadership on its nuclear programme, but the Tony Blair Institute paper warns that the scope of any new deal must be broadened and regional nations need to be included in talks. Reuters/Tom Brenner
The Biden administration has made clear that it will re-engage Iran’s leadership on its nuclear programme, but the Tony Blair Institute paper warns that the scope of any new deal must be broadened and regional nations need to be included in talks. Reuters/Tom Brenner

The ideological ambitions of these IRGC-manufactured militias are a stark reminder that, rather than a conflict between Shia and Sunni, or a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the real divide in the region is between modernisers and Islamist extremists. Shia Muslims who refuse to subscribe to Mr Khamenei’s Islamist ideology have been victims of the IRGC or its manufactured proxies.

While many point to the tragic events of 2019 - when we saw Iraqis and Iranians killed on the orders of the IRGC - as a testament to their brutality, the fact that tens of thousands were willing to risk their lives to resist the backward and oppressive politics that the Iranian regime wishes to sustain should not be ignored.

In addition to expanding its activities beyond Iran’s borders, the IRGC has also increased its power on an unprecedented scale within Iran itself. The IRGC is transitioning from being part of the "deep state" to controlling the state itself, making it even more likely that it will benefit from any future sanctions relief for Tehran.

Any engagement with Tehran that does not recognise the JCPOA’s flaws risks repeating them. Reaching a lasting deal will require encompassing broader issues – including Iran’s regional policy, missile programme and violation of human rights – and bringing regional stakeholders to the table.

Professor Saeid Golkar is a senior fellow at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change and Kasra Aarabi is an analyst on Iran at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change

The specs

Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl, 48V hybrid

Transmission: eight-speed automatic

Power: 325bhp

Torque: 450Nm

Price: Dh359,000

On sale: now 

TOP 5 DRIVERS 2019

1 Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes, 10 wins 387 points

2 Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes, 4 wins, 314 points

3 Max Verstappen, Red Bull, 3 wins, 260 points

4 Charles Leclerc, Ferrari, 2 wins, 249 points

5 Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari, 1 win, 230 points

Apple%20Mac%20through%20the%20years
%3Cp%3E1984%20-%20Apple%20unveiled%20the%20Macintosh%20on%20January%2024%3Cbr%3E1985%20-%20Steve%20Jobs%20departed%20from%20Apple%20and%20established%20NeXT%3Cbr%3E1986%20-%20Apple%20introduced%20the%20Macintosh%20Plus%2C%20featuring%20enhanced%20memory%3Cbr%3E1987%20-%20Apple%20launched%20the%20Macintosh%20II%2C%20equipped%20with%20colour%20capabilities%3Cbr%3E1989%20-%20The%20widely%20acclaimed%20Macintosh%20SE%2F30%20made%20its%20debut%3Cbr%3E1994%20-%20Apple%20presented%20the%20Power%20Macintosh%3Cbr%3E1996%20-%20The%20Macintosh%20System%20Software%20OS%20underwent%20a%20rebranding%20as%20Mac%20OS%3Cbr%3E2001%20-%20Apple%20introduced%20Mac%20OS%20X%2C%20marrying%20Unix%20stability%20with%20a%20user-friendly%20interface%3Cbr%3E2006%20-%20Apple%20adopted%20Intel%20processors%20in%20MacBook%20Pro%20laptops%3Cbr%3E2008%20-%20Apple%20introduced%20the%20MacBook%20Air%2C%20a%20lightweight%20laptop%3Cbr%3E2012%20-%20Apple%20launched%20the%20MacBook%20Pro%20with%20a%20retina%20display%3Cbr%3E2016%20-%20The%20Mac%20operating%20system%20underwent%20rebranding%20as%20macOS%3Cbr%3E2020%20-%20Apple%20introduced%20the%20M1%20chip%20for%20Macs%2C%20combining%20high%20performance%20and%20energy%20efficiency%3Cbr%3E2022%20-%20The%20M2%20chip%20was%20announced%3Cbr%3E2023%20-The%20M3%20line-up%20of%20chip%20was%20announced%20to%20improve%20performance%20and%20add%20new%20capabilities%20for%20Mac.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Some of Darwish's last words

"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008

His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.

Schedule:

Sept 15: Bangladesh v Sri Lanka (Dubai)

Sept 16: Pakistan v Qualifier (Dubai)

Sept 17: Sri Lanka v Afghanistan (Abu Dhabi)

Sept 18: India v Qualifier (Dubai)

Sept 19: India v Pakistan (Dubai)

Sept 20: Bangladesh v Afghanistan (Abu Dhabi) Super Four

Sept 21: Group A Winner v Group B Runner-up (Dubai) 

Sept 21: Group B Winner v Group A Runner-up (Abu Dhabi)

Sept 23: Group A Winner v Group A Runner-up (Dubai)

Sept 23: Group B Winner v Group B Runner-up (Abu Dhabi)

Sept 25: Group A Winner v Group B Winner (Dubai)

Sept 26: Group A Runner-up v Group B Runner-up (Abu Dhabi)

Sept 28: Final (Dubai)

The finalists

Player of the Century, 2001-2020: Cristiano Ronaldo (Juventus), Lionel Messi (Barcelona), Mohamed Salah (Liverpool), Ronaldinho

Coach of the Century, 2001-2020: Pep Guardiola (Manchester City), Jose Mourinho (Tottenham Hotspur), Zinedine Zidane (Real Madrid), Sir Alex Ferguson

Club of the Century, 2001-2020: Al Ahly (Egypt), Bayern Munich (Germany), Barcelona (Spain), Real Madrid (Spain)

Player of the Year: Cristiano Ronaldo, Lionel Messi, Robert Lewandowski (Bayern Munich)

Club of the Year: Bayern Munich, Liverpool, Real Madrid

Coach of the Year: Gian Piero Gasperini (Atalanta), Hans-Dieter Flick (Bayern Munich), Jurgen Klopp (Liverpool)

Agent of the Century, 2001-2020: Giovanni Branchini, Jorge Mendes, Mino Raiola

Stree

Producer: Maddock Films, Jio Movies
Director: Amar Kaushik
Cast: Rajkummar Rao, Shraddha Kapoor, Pankaj Tripathi, Aparshakti Khurana, Abhishek Banerjee
Rating: 3.5

House-hunting

Top 10 locations for inquiries from US house hunters, according to Rightmove

  1. Edinburgh, Scotland 
  2. Westminster, London 
  3. Camden, London 
  4. Glasgow, Scotland 
  5. Islington, London 
  6. Kensington and Chelsea, London 
  7. Highlands, Scotland 
  8. Argyll and Bute, Scotland 
  9. Fife, Scotland 
  10. Tower Hamlets, London 

 

Top 5 concerns globally:

1. Unemployment

2. Spread of infectious diseases

3. Fiscal crises

4. Cyber attacks

5. Profound social instability

Top 5 concerns in the Mena region

1. Energy price shock

2. Fiscal crises

3. Spread of infectious diseases

4. Unmanageable inflation

5. Cyber attacks

Source: World Economic Foundation

Soldier F

“I was in complete disgust at the fact that only one person was to be charged for Bloody Sunday.

“Somebody later said to me, 'you just watch - they'll drop the charge against him'. And sure enough, the charges against Soldier F would go on to be dropped.

“It's pretty hard to think that 50 years on, the State is still covering up for what happened on Bloody Sunday.”

Jimmy Duddy, nephew of John Johnson

F1 The Movie

Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem

Director: Joseph Kosinski

Rating: 4/5