The United States is looking to a “Libya model” in pursuing nuclear disarmament talks with North Korea, National Security Advisor John Bolton said in comments which have baffled experts.
A recent thaw in relations with North Korea has the US hoping to make progress in efforts to dismantle North Korea's nuclear programme, with which President Kim Jong-un has periodically threatened his rivals.
Mr Kim’s nuclear arsenal has served to protect him from the threat of regime change, so when President Donald Trump's National Security Advisor suggested that the US consider the North African country as a model for denuclearisation talks, observers were confused. After all, while Libya gave up its nuclear programme in 2004, former strongman Muammar Gaddafi was subsequently killed in 2011 and the country has been in turmoil since. Hardly a model to incentivise President Kim, they suggested.
In an interview with CBS on Sunday, Mr Bolton said the onus would be on North Korea to show it is serious about giving up their nuclear weapons. “I think we're looking at the Libya model of 2003, 2004,” he said. “One thing that Libya did that led us to overcome our skepticism was that they allowed American and British observers into all their nuclear related sites. So it wasn't a question of relying on international mechanisms.”
Previously Mr Bolton has advocated for regime change in north Korea, and more recently called for the scrapping of the Iran nuclear deal. But back in 2003, Mr Bolton was serving as President George W Bush's Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security when the British intercepted a shipment of centrifuge parts bound for Libya.
It was shortly after the US invasion of Iraq, and as the British and Americans pushed Gaddafi to halt his nuclear programme, the thought that he could be the next dictator to be toppled would have been foremost in the colonel's mind.
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Editorial: Cautious optimism is required on North Korean thaw
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In secret, Mr Gaddafi gave full access to inspectors from the British and American governments and publicly to inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
One of the IAEA inspectors sent to Libya in 2004 was Robert Kelley, a former nuclear weapons analyst from the US Los Alamos National Laboratory. Today he's shaking his head at the idea that there is a Libya model for nuclear disarmament. "It's enigmatic," Mr Kelley told The National. "I'm having trouble figuring out what Bolton's model is in his head."
For one thing, Mr Kelley recalls Mr Bolton being opposed to IAEA inspectors being sent to Libya. “We were called to the US mission and told to do the inspection,” he recalls. “Bolton was in the room and he was furious. He didn’t want people from the IAEA to go in and do the inspection.”
Mr Bolton, a hawkish hardliner, believed that only US officials should be involved – not UN agencies. He had earlier characterised Libya as a "rogue state" beyond President Bush's infamous "Axis of Evil" – which included North Korea. He also opposed Mr Bush's disarmament deal with Gaddafi, so much so that he was eventually side-lined from the agreement.
Mr Kelley went on to inspect sites across Libya and found little evidence that Gaddafi had ever seriously attempted to obtain nuclear weapons.
This, says Mr Kelley, leads him to question the relevance of any "Libya model" in the context of North Korea, which has a mature nuclear weapons programme and has successfully tested at least six devices.
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Comment: Kim Jong-un has no incentive to denuclearise. The sooner Trump realises that, the better
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Comment: One president, two threats and three flawed deals: how Trump's nuclear victories will be hollow ones
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“Libya had done virtually nothing in the field of nuclear weapons themselves,” he said. “If they hadn’t acquired some drawings from Pakistan of a nuclear device, which they left sitting in a safe that they admitted they hadn’t even looked at very closely, there would have been nothing to discover.”
Disarming North Korea will be an entirely different undertaking, he believes. The country has developed facilities ranging from enrichment facilities to weapons sites, the locations of some are closely guarded secrets which President Kim will not give up without major concessions. “It’s the basis of their survival at this point and how they’ve managed to get the US to the table.”
When Mr Bolton talks of Libya and its applicability to North Korea denuclearisation, he is likely thinking of the complete access inspectors were given, says Alberto Muti, a nuclear non-proliferation and verification research organisation VERTIC. "When they went into Libya, they were given very large freedom to move around and look for other possibly undeclared facilities," he told The National. "They would want that for North Korea."
This kind of access has been a major stumbling block in the past, including during six party talks which ended fruitlessly in 2009. “Personally I believe it would be very difficult and a big concession, above and beyond any concession North Korea has made in the past,” Mr Muti said.
Another comparison Mr Bolton may be thinking of is nuclear disarmament as a prelude to sanctions relief and as an alternative to regime change. “But if this is the deal we want to strike, the historical record with Libya is just not good enough,” Mr Moti pointed out.
While most sanctions against Libya were lifted in 2004, he was eventually overthrown in 2011 in an uprising which was supported by a NATO bombing campaign. “Even if it might be tempting to say there wasn’t a direct link… well it was the same parties. If I were north Korea, I wouldn’t find that very pacifying.”
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
Banned items
Dubai Police has also issued a list of banned items at the ground on Sunday. These include:
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Political flags or banners
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Bikes, skateboards or scooters
MIDWAY
Produced: Lionsgate Films, Shanghai Ryui Entertainment, Street Light Entertainment
Directed: Roland Emmerich
Cast: Ed Skrein, Woody Harrelson, Dennis Quaid, Aaron Eckhart, Luke Evans, Nick Jonas, Mandy Moore, Darren Criss
Rating: 3.5/5 stars
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
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Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
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Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
LA LIGA FIXTURES
Thursday (All UAE kick-off times)
Sevilla v Real Betis (midnight)
Friday
Granada v Real Betis (9.30pm)
Valencia v Levante (midnight)
Saturday
Espanyol v Alaves (4pm)
Celta Vigo v Villarreal (7pm)
Leganes v Real Valladolid (9.30pm)
Mallorca v Barcelona (midnight)
Sunday
Atletic Bilbao v Atletico Madrid (4pm)
Real Madrid v Eibar (9.30pm)
Real Sociedad v Osasuna (midnight)
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Zayed%20Centre%20for%20Research
%3Cp%3EThe%20Zayed%20Centre%20for%20Research%20is%20a%20partnership%20between%20Great%20Ormond%20Street%20Hospital%2C%20University%20College%20London%20and%20Great%20Ormond%20Street%20Hospital%20Children%E2%80%99s%20Charity%20and%20was%20made%20possible%20thanks%20to%20a%20generous%20%C2%A360%20million%20gift%20in%202014%20from%20Sheikha%20Fatima%20bint%20Mubarak%2C%20Chairwoman%20of%20the%20General%20Women's%20Union%2C%20President%20of%20the%20Supreme%20Council%20for%20Motherhood%20and%20Childhood%2C%20and%20Supreme%20Chairwoman%20of%20the%20Family%20Development%20Foundation.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Europe’s rearming plan
- Suspend strict budget rules to allow member countries to step up defence spending
- Create new "instrument" providing €150 billion of loans to member countries for defence investment
- Use the existing EU budget to direct more funds towards defence-related investment
- Engage the bloc's European Investment Bank to drop limits on lending to defence firms
- Create a savings and investments union to help companies access capital
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
Election pledges on migration
CDU: "Now is the time to control the German borders and enforce strict border rejections"
SPD: "Border closures and blanket rejections at internal borders contradict the spirit of a common area of freedom"
North Pole stats
Distance covered: 160km
Temperature: -40°C
Weight of equipment: 45kg
Altitude (metres above sea level): 0
Terrain: Ice rock
South Pole stats
Distance covered: 130km
Temperature: -50°C
Weight of equipment: 50kg
Altitude (metres above sea level): 3,300
Terrain: Flat ice
Cricket World Cup League Two
Oman, UAE, Namibia
Al Amerat, Muscat
Results
Oman beat UAE by five wickets
UAE beat Namibia by eight runs
Fixtures
Wednesday January 8 –Oman v Namibia
Thursday January 9 – Oman v UAE
Saturday January 11 – UAE v Namibia
Sunday January 12 – Oman v Namibia
Kat Wightman's tips on how to create zones in large spaces
- Area carpets or rugs are the easiest way to segregate spaces while also unifying them.
- Lighting can help define areas. Try pendant lighting over dining tables, and side and floor lamps in living areas.
- Keep the colour palette the same in a room, but combine different tones and textures in different zone. A common accent colour dotted throughout the space brings it together.
- Don’t be afraid to use furniture to break up the space. For example, if you have a sofa placed in the middle of the room, a console unit behind it will give good punctuation.
- Use a considered collection of prints and artworks that work together to form a cohesive journey.
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
APPLE IPAD MINI (A17 PRO)
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