US relations on the agenda for Pakistan's new spy chief



ISLAMABAD // Pakistan's new spymaster faces a tough task fixing ever-worsening ties with the United States, but analysts say he is unlikely to reform an institution accused of helping militants in Afghanistan.

Yusuf Raza Gilani, the prime minister, on Friday appointed Lieutenant Gen Zaheer ul-Islam as the new chief of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency, the main spy arm of the Pakistani military, ending weeks of speculation he would extend the term of Lieutenant Gen Ahmed Shuja Pasha, due to retire on March 18.

Under Gen Pasha, relations between Pakistan and the US have hit a low, especially after American forces located and killed Osama bin Laden in the military town of Abbottabad in May, without warning Pakistan of the raid.

US air strikes killed 24 Pakistani soldiers at two border posts in November, prompting Islamabad to block supplies for US and Nato-led troops in Afghanistan shipping through Pakistan.

Gen Islam's appointment came days before parliament opens a debate reviewing ties with the US but analysts say the review is mainly for the powerful military and its intelligence wing to lay down the ground rules for working with Washington.

The military is the single most powerful institution in Pakistan and has ruled the country for half of its existence.

"The main challenge for the new ISI chief is the relationship with the United States. His input is pivotal in reviving these ties," said Hasan Askari Rizvi, a Lahore-based analyst.

Analysts say Gen Islam's appointment may do little to change the powerful ISI, but may open new opportunities for improving ties with the US.

"General [Islam] is likely to facilitate dialogue with the United States because Pasha's position had become somewhat static. General [Islam] does not carry that baggage and can show more flexibility in talks," Mr Rizvi said.

But that is unlikely to see an immediate sea change given the state of distrust between Islamabad and Washington.

The US suspects that the ISI keeps ties with militant groups that have attacked foreign and Afghan forces in a bid to secure its interests in Afghanistan once foreign forces leave that country.

With a hostile and more powerful neighbour, India, to the east, Pakistan is particularly anxious about developments in Afghanistan, especially as the border cuts through tribal areas where ethnic loyalty is more important than national identity.

"The mutual suspicion between the two sides is so intense that one should not expect a complete change of tide especially since the newly appointed chief is an established military figure," the Express Tribune newspaper said in its editorial on Sunday, referring to Pakistan-US ties.

Given the ISI's perceived influence over the militants, Gen Islam, who was a deputy head of the IS from 2008-2010I, is expected to play an important role in persuading the Afghan Taliban to join talks to end the war in Afghanistan.

Another challenge for Gen Islam is quelling a growing tide of the home-grown Islamist militants who have killed thousands of people, including several ISI officials, in a growing problem fuelled by instability in Afghanistan and the unpopular involvement of the US in the region.

Gen Islam's appointment comes at a time when the ISI is coming under increasing scrutiny at home as well.

Dubbed by critics as a "state within a state", politicians have long accused the ISI of political meddling.

Last week, a former ISI head, Asad Durrani, admitted in the Supreme Court that he had distributed millions of rupees among the opposition politicians in 1990 on the instructions of the then army chief Gen Aslam Beg to stop the former prime minister Benazir Bhutto from coming to power. Bhutto, the twice-elected twice-dismissed prime minister and the wife of the sitting president Asif Ali Zardari, was killed in a suicide attack in December 2007.

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Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.

 

Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year

 

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Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30 

 

Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse

 

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

How to join and use Abu Dhabi’s public libraries

• There are six libraries in Abu Dhabi emirate run by the Department of Culture and Tourism, including one in Al Ain and Al Dhafra.

• Libraries are free to visit and visitors can consult books, use online resources and study there. Most are open from 8am to 8pm on weekdays, closed on Fridays and have variable hours on Saturdays, except for Qasr Al Watan which is open from 10am to 8pm every day.

• In order to borrow books, visitors must join the service by providing a passport photograph, Emirates ID and a refundable deposit of Dh400. Members can borrow five books for three weeks, all of which are renewable up to two times online.

• If users do not wish to pay the fee, they can still use the library’s electronic resources for free by simply registering on the website. Once registered, a username and password is provided, allowing remote access.

• For more information visit the library network's website.

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Tightening the screw on rogue recruiters

The UAE overhauled the procedure to recruit housemaids and domestic workers with a law in 2017 to protect low-income labour from being exploited.

 Only recruitment companies authorised by the government are permitted as part of Tadbeer, a network of labour ministry-regulated centres.

A contract must be drawn up for domestic workers, the wages and job offer clearly stating the nature of work.

The contract stating the wages, work entailed and accommodation must be sent to the employee in their home country before they depart for the UAE.

The contract will be signed by the employer and employee when the domestic worker arrives in the UAE.

Only recruitment agencies registered with the ministry can undertake recruitment and employment applications for domestic workers.

Penalties for illegal recruitment in the UAE include fines of up to Dh100,000 and imprisonment

But agents not authorised by the government sidestep the law by illegally getting women into the country on visit visas.