India, facing the world’s worst Covid crisis, may encounter a bleaker scenario in the coming weeks, with some research models projecting the death toll could more than double.
The country has recorded about 20 million infections, double the figure reported only three weeks ago.
A team at the Indian Institute of Science in Bangalore used mathematical modelling to predict about 404,000 deaths will occur by June 11 if the trend continues.
Another model, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, forecast 1,018,879 deaths by the end of July.
The forecasts reflect the urgent need for India to step up public health measures such as testing and social distancing.
The Indian Institute of Science estimated the number of deaths could be lowered to 300,000 with a 15-day lockdown, and to 285,000 with a 30-day confinement. The IMHE estimated a death toll of about 940,000 by the end of July, with universal mask-wearing.
The Modi government resisted calls for strict physical distancing and mask-wearing, and allowed thousands to gather for public holidays and election rallies.
Public-safety measures in the country hit capacity and hospitals face severe shortages of oxygen.
This week, a court in Uttar Pradesh state ruled that deaths of Covid-19 patients caused by the shortage of oxygen were a “criminal act and not less than genocide”.
A week earlier, another court held the election commission responsible for spreading the virus and failing to follow safety protocols.
Even if the worst estimates are avoided, India could suffer the world’s largest Covid-19 death toll. The US has reported the most fatalities, about 592,000.
Director: Jon Favreau
Starring: Donald Glover, Seth Rogen, John Oliver
Rating: 2 out of 5 stars
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Some of Darwish's last words
"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008
His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.
