ISLAMABAD // As Pakistani and American investigators explore the possible links between last week's failed bombing in New York and the Pakistani Taliban, the spotlight is once again on the leader of the militant group, Hakimullah Mehsud, who was believed dead but has now appeared in a new video.
Mr Mehsud, who became the leader of the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in August last year, was believed to have been killed in January after succumbing to wounds from a US drone strike.
Although the Taliban had denied his death, Mr Mehsud disappeared, leading to speculation that his reign of terror, like that of his predecessor, Baitullah Mehsud, had come to an end.
But on Monday, Mr Mehsud appeared in a video, produced by the Taliban's media wing, and in his characteristic bombastic style warned of suicide attacks inside the United States.
"The time is very near when our fedayeen will attack the American states in their major cities," he said in the video. "Our fedayeen [freedom fighters] have penetrated the terrorist America. We will give extremely painful blows to the fanatic America."
US officials had stepped up their efforts to kill Mr Mehsud after he appeared in a video alongside Humam Khalil Abu Mulal al Balawi - the Jordanian who killed himself and seven CIA agents in a suicide bombing last year - that claimed responsibility for the attack.
While the Pakistani interior minister, Rehman Malik, had confirmed the killing of Mr Mehsud in January's strike, Pakistani military and US officials remained tight-lipped over the certainty of such reports.
Recently, rumours began to filter out of the tribal region of Waziristan in the north-west that Mr Mehsud was alive, although he had been wounded in the missile strike.
Khalid Khawaja, a retired Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI) official who was abducted in March by militants along with another former ISI official and a documentary filmmaker, Assad Qureshi, had also met Mr Mehsud this year in an effort to stop suicide attacks inside Pakistan, according to Osama Khalid, the son of Mr Khawaja.
Khawaja was killed by his abductors last Friday and his bullet-ridden body was found near Mir Ali in North Waziristan.
The claims Mr Mehsud made in Monday's video were initially thought of merely as boasts, no different than similar claims made by the Taliban over the years. But officials are now wondering whether what Mr Mehsud threatened relates to the failed car bombing in Times Square last week allegedly by Faisal Shahzad, a Pakistani-American, who has reportedly said he received explosives training in Waziristan.
The Pakistani Taliban has claimed responsibility for the bomb in a video message by Qari Hussain, another militant Taliban commander, on Sunday, although US and Pakistani intelligence agencies have yet to ascertain whether the claim is true. Several people have been detained in Karachi and Faisalabad in recent days.
The group had also claimed responsibility for a shooting in New York in April 2009, although no connection was traced.
The shoddiness of the bomb in a vehicle parked in Times Square has also raised questions about the sophistication of the alleged training Mr Shahzad received from the militants.
Mr Shahzad is well-educated and comes from a prominent and wealthy family in north-western Khyber-Pakhtunkhawa province. His father is a retired air vice marshal in the Pakistan Air Force. The family has gone into hiding to avoid the media.
By contrast, Mr Mehsud is a hardened militant and hails from South Waziristan, the rugged tribal region straddling the border with Afghanistan that had served as a base for the TTP until the Pakistani army cleared the area in an operation last year.
Over the past several years, the TTP has demonstrated its ability to strike civilian and military targets across major urban centres of the country with a spate of lethal suicide attacks. But last year's military operation in South Waziristan is thought to have forced the militants to flee to other tribal regions, especially North Waziristan.
That hard-to-access area is a safe haven for militants of all stripes, including al Qa'eda, the Haqqani network - accused by the US of launching attacks inside Afghanistan - and the TTP.
The Pakistani army this year balked at US prodding to take military action there, but there have been recent indications that military planners are contemplating such an operation.
Reports in US media suggest that American officials have already decided to step up drone strikes inside the tribal areas. Even though such strikes have proven to be effective, they remain unpopular among Pakistanis, who resent American influence in the country.
The return of Mr Mehsud is likely to embolden the TTP and other militants.
Pakistani and US officials, however, stress that Mr Mehsud's influence has been reduced as other commanders increased their clout during the months of his apparent absence. But that could be an attempt to hide the embarrassment over false claims about his death.
In any case, the true impact of Mr Mehsud's return to the insurgency that has plagued Pakistan in recent years will only be gauged in the coming months.
@Email:foreign.desk@thenational.ae
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%206.4-litre%20V8%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E8-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E470bhp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E637Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDh375%2C900%20(estimate)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
Correspondents
By Tim Murphy
(Grove Press)
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylturbo
Transmission: seven-speed DSG automatic
Power: 242bhp
Torque: 370Nm
Price: Dh136,814
Results:
CSIL 2-star 145cm One Round with Jump-Off
1. Alice Debany Clero (USA) on Amareusa S 38.83 seconds
2. Anikka Sande (NOR) For Cash 2 39.09
3. Georgia Tame (GBR) Cash Up 39.42
4. Nadia Taryam (UAE) Askaria 3 39.63
5. Miriam Schneider (GER) Fidelius G 47.74
Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
Abramovich London
A Kensington Palace Gardens house with 15 bedrooms is valued at more than £150 million.
A three-storey penthouse at Chelsea Waterfront bought for £22 million.
Steel company Evraz drops more than 10 per cent in trading after UK officials said it was potentially supplying the Russian military.
Sale of Chelsea Football Club is now impossible.
How to play the stock market recovery in 2021?
If you are looking to build your long-term wealth in 2021 and beyond, the stock market is still the best place to do it as equities powered on despite the pandemic.
Investing in individual stocks is not for everyone and most private investors should stick to mutual funds and ETFs, but there are some thrilling opportunities for those who understand the risks.
Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank, says the 20 best-performing US and European stocks have delivered an average return year-to-date of 148 per cent, measured in local currency terms.
Online marketplace Etsy was the best performer with a return of 330.6 per cent, followed by communications software company Sinch (315.4 per cent), online supermarket HelloFresh (232.8 per cent) and fuel cells specialist NEL (191.7 per cent).
Mr Garnry says digital companies benefited from the lockdown, while green energy firms flew as efforts to combat climate change were ramped up, helped in part by the European Union’s green deal.
Electric car company Tesla would be on the list if it had been part of the S&P 500 Index, but it only joined on December 21. “Tesla has become one of the most valuable companies in the world this year as demand for electric vehicles has grown dramatically,” Mr Garnry says.
By contrast, the 20 worst-performing European stocks fell 54 per cent on average, with European banks hit by the economic fallout from the pandemic, while cruise liners and airline stocks suffered due to travel restrictions.
As demand for energy fell, the oil and gas industry had a tough year, too.
Mr Garnry says the biggest story this year was the “absolute crunch” in so-called value stocks, companies that trade at low valuations compared to their earnings and growth potential.
He says they are “heavily tilted towards financials, miners, energy, utilities and industrials, which have all been hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic”. “The last year saw these cheap stocks become cheaper and expensive stocks have become more expensive.”
This has triggered excited talk about the “great value rotation” but Mr Garnry remains sceptical. “We need to see a breakout of interest rates combined with higher inflation before we join the crowd.”
Always remember that past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Last year’s winners often turn out to be this year’s losers, and vice-versa.
Jeff Buckley: From Hallelujah To The Last Goodbye
By Dave Lory with Jim Irvin
Company profile
Name: Infinite8
Based: Dubai
Launch year: 2017
Number of employees: 90
Sector: Online gaming industry
Funding: $1.2m from a UAE angel investor
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
MATCH INFO
Tottenham Hotspur 3 (Son 1', Kane 8' & 16') West Ham United 3 (Balbuena 82', Sanchez og 85', Lanzini 90' 4)
Man of the match Harry Kane
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
