NEW YORK // Amid a wider thaw in relations, Pakistan and the United States are reportedly negotiating a greater role for Islamabad in Washington's drone programme.
But a report released a week ago featuring interviews with civilian victims of the strikes has reignited a debate over the legality and efficacy of the targeted assassinations.
Living Under Drones, produced by the law schools of Stanford and New York universities, said that the CIA's remote-controlled killing programme, which targets Al Qaeda and Taliban militants, "terrorises" the entire population of Pakistan's tribal areas and has killed a significant number of civilians.
The authors said that since 2004, drones have killed between 474 and 881 civilians in Pakistan, according to what they said were the most thorough available estimates. Officials in the administration of US President Barack Obama have said that the strikes are exceedingly precise and that there have been limited civilian casualties, although US officials also reportedly consider all military-age males killed in the strikes to be militants until proven otherwise.
Based on interviews with victims and witnesses of the strikes, as well as doctors and local journalists, among others, the report argues that the drones are politically counterproductive, set a dangerous precedent for the disregard of international law, and may even be in violation of such laws through the targeting of first responders and so-called "signature strikes" against nameless residents of Pakistan's tribal regions based on circumstantial evidence.
While rights activists and drone critics hold up the report as more evidence of the programme's dangerous moral, legal and strategic flaws, others say that the report's claims are based on unrepresentative data and are political polemic rather than objective analysis.
"Making the categorical statements that the report makes isn't justified by the kind of research that they mustered," said Joshua Foust, a fellow at the Washington, DC-based American Security Project think tank.
The report's methodology states that the Islamabad-based Foundation for Fundamental Rights, a non-profit that advocates for drone victims, provided the majority of the 69 residents from the tribal areas who gave eye-witness testimony to the researchers.
Mr Foust questioned this approach, saying: "When you interview a very small number of people, ask them potentially leading questions that you don't disclose, and those people were organised by a group with a stake in the outcome of your research, it's not going to be rigorous."
The problem with making claims about the drones' effects, is that collecting reliable polling data in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of northwestern Pakistan, where the attacks occur, is extremely difficult, according to analysts.
"FATA is not a credible place to survey right now," said Moeed Yusuf, a Washington-based Pakistan expert with the US Institute for Peace.
"The people have been over-polled in the past eight years … they've learned what people like to hear, what they don't like to hear and what gets them something," he added. "I am sceptical of any data - good, bad or ugly - that I find on drones simply because there's a perverse incentive to misrepresent for all involved."
The US does not release any official data about the numbers of people killed in the secret programme, or the intended targets. Journalists and analysts are forced to rely on death tolls relayed by anonymous government officials in Pakistan and the US, or by the militants themselves. Access to residents of the areas under attack is next to impossible.
In the vacuum of facts, it is easy for both sides of the debate to selectively use data to justify their position.
"Drones have killed innocent people and I don't think it's unfair to be outraged ... they have also been really effective at eliminating really dangerous people," said Mr Foust. "But both sides engage in very categorical descriptions without having the data to back [them] up."
But others say that critics of the new report are overlooking what it adds to the debate. "What it does really well is foreground voices of drone affectees from the tribal areas, which is something we haven't seen before to this extent," said Madiha Tahir, an independent journalist who is one of the few reporters to have recently travelled into the tribal areas to interview locals.
"It moves away from the obsession with numbers," Mrs Tahir said. "It also shows that the civilian-militant binary is deeply problematic. People are not one or the other ... these lines are confusing."
Both the US and Pakistan governments seem to have agreed that drones are a tactic that will continue. Even while Pakistan protests them as a violation of its sovereignty, it is seeking a greater role in the programme, with the Associated Press reporting last week that talks on the issue are continuing.
The question of cooperation on the drones is important, Mr Yusuf said, because the perception that the US has declared war on Pakistan through the use of drones is a central rallying cry for right wing and militant forces within the country. The drones are "not sustainable quite frankly if one of the goals is to curb anti-Americanism" and turn public sentiment, he said.
"Somebody will have to come up with an innovative answer to this but because the mistrust is so high, the US will never trust Pakistan to be operating these."
But after a year of crises between the two countries, trust appears to be building again, however fragile it may still be. At last week's United Nations General Assembly in New York, Pakistan's president Asif Ali Zardari referred to "positive momentum" in bilateral relations.
Hina Rabbani Khar, Pakistan's foreign minister, said last week that senior officials from Pakistan, the US and Afghanistan would soon be holding renewed talks on improving counterterrorism cooperation. There were also reports last week that the US and Pakistan were planning a joint initiative to bring the Taliban to the table for peace talks.
Analysts say that intense cooperation will be necessary to quickly create the conditions necessary to foster a political settlement in Afghanistan before US forces withdraw at the end of 2014, and reduce the likelihood of a civil war that would spill over calamitously into Pakistan.
"Pakistan has realised time is running out and it is now willing to play a positive role. And the US also realises this is crunch time," said Mr Yusuf. "We will see a real push, but it may still not work, the odds are against it."
Among the many factors increasing those odds are divisions within the Afghan Taliban on the necessity of negotiating with the US. "It is a controversial idea and lots of work needs to be done within the insurgent groups and among the groups and between the various power brokers [to create support for negotiations]," said Arif Rafiq, a Washington, DC-based political consultant.
The US, Pakistan and the Taliban have all failed to articulate a strategy for achieving a negotiated settlement. "There is a closing window of opportunity for them to gain coherence in terms of a vision for the country and region," said Mr Rafiq. "It may be too late."
foreign.desk@thenational.ae
The National Archives, Abu Dhabi
Founded over 50 years ago, the National Archives collects valuable historical material relating to the UAE, and is the oldest and richest archive relating to the Arabian Gulf.
Much of the material can be viewed on line at the Arabian Gulf Digital Archive - https://www.agda.ae/en
Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
The Bio
Hometown: Bogota, Colombia
Favourite place to relax in UAE: the desert around Al Mleiha in Sharjah or the eastern mangroves in Abu Dhabi
The one book everyone should read: 100 Years of Solitude by Gabriel Garcia Marquez. It will make your mind fly
Favourite documentary: Chasing Coral by Jeff Orlowski. It's a good reality check about one of the most valued ecosystems for humanity
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
MATCH INFO
Euro 2020 qualifier
Croatia v Hungary, Thursday, 10.45pm, UAE
TV: Match on BeIN Sports
THE BIO
Bio Box
Role Model: Sheikh Zayed, God bless his soul
Favorite book: Zayed Biography of the leader
Favorite quote: To be or not to be, that is the question, from William Shakespeare's Hamlet
Favorite food: seafood
Favorite place to travel: Lebanon
Favorite movie: Braveheart
FIGHT CARD
Welterweight Mostafa Radi (PAL) v Tohir Zhuraev (TJK)
Catchweight 75kg Leandro Martins (BRA) v Anas Siraj Mounir (MAR)
Flyweight Corinne Laframboise (CAN) v Manon Fiorot (FRA)
Featherweight Ahmed Al Darmaki (UAE) v Bogdan Kirilenko (UZB)
Lightweight Izzedine Al Derabani (JOR) v Atabek Abdimitalipov (KYG)
Featherweight Yousef Al Housani (UAE) v Mohamed Arsharq Ali (SLA)
Catchweight 69kg Jung Han-gook (KOR) v Elias Boudegzdame (ALG)
Catchweight 71kg Usman Nurmagomedov (RUS) v Jerry Kvarnstrom (FIN)
Featherweight title Lee Do-gyeom (KOR) v Alexandru Chitoran (ROU)
Lightweight title Bruno Machado (BRA) v Mike Santiago (USA)
PROFILE
Name: Enhance Fitness
Year started: 2018
Based: UAE
Employees: 200
Amount raised: $3m
Investors: Global Ventures and angel investors
Tightening the screw on rogue recruiters
The UAE overhauled the procedure to recruit housemaids and domestic workers with a law in 2017 to protect low-income labour from being exploited.
Only recruitment companies authorised by the government are permitted as part of Tadbeer, a network of labour ministry-regulated centres.
A contract must be drawn up for domestic workers, the wages and job offer clearly stating the nature of work.
The contract stating the wages, work entailed and accommodation must be sent to the employee in their home country before they depart for the UAE.
The contract will be signed by the employer and employee when the domestic worker arrives in the UAE.
Only recruitment agencies registered with the ministry can undertake recruitment and employment applications for domestic workers.
Penalties for illegal recruitment in the UAE include fines of up to Dh100,000 and imprisonment
But agents not authorised by the government sidestep the law by illegally getting women into the country on visit visas.
The%20specs
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A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
The specs
A4 35 TFSI
Engine: 2.0-litre, four-cylinder
Transmission: seven-speed S-tronic automatic
Power: 150bhp
Torque: 270Nm
Price: Dh150,000 (estimate)
On sale: First Q 2020
A4 S4 TDI
Engine: 3.0-litre V6 turbo diesel
Transmission: eight-speed PDK automatic
Power: 350bhp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: Dh165,000 (estimate)
On sale: First Q 2020
THE SPECS
Engine: 4.4-litre V8
Transmission: Automatic
Power: 530bhp
Torque: 750Nm
Price: Dh535,000
On sale: Now
Business Insights
- As per the document, there are six filing options, including choosing to report on a realisation basis and transitional rules for pre-tax period gains or losses.
- SMEs with revenue below Dh3 million per annum can opt for transitional relief until 2026, treating them as having no taxable income.
- Larger entities have specific provisions for asset and liability movements, business restructuring, and handling foreign permanent establishments.