BEIJING // North Korea's recent "charm offensive", which includes an invitation for a US special envoy to visit the isolated nation, is aimed at improving relations with the US and warrants engagement from the international community, analysts said.
North Korea has invited Stephen Bosworth, Mr Obama's front man on the communist state, to visit Pyongyang for talks on ending the nuclear stand-off, South Korean media reports said yesterday.
Citing a diplomatic source in Washington, South Korea's JoongAng Ilbo newspaper said Mr Bosworth would probably visit South Korea, China and Japan in early September "to explain the situation ? and then go to Pyongyang".
A South Korean diplomatic source, speaking on condition of anonymity, said it was not certain whether the envoy's visit to Pyongyang would be made next month.
Mr Bosworth has said on a number of occasions he would be willing to visit North Korea.
Pyongyang has recently made a number of conciliatory overtures. It welcomed former President Bill Clinton to the country and released two jailed American reporters while he was there. Shortly thereafter, it freed a South Korean citizen held for four months.
North Korea's UN mission envoys also said their nation "is prepared to have dialogue with the US" in a meeting with Bill Richardson, the governor of New Mexico, at the governor's mansion in Santa Fe last week. After the death of Kim Dae-jung, the former South Korean president, the North Korean leader Kim Jong Il swiftly dispatched a high-level delegation to pay respects to the late president ahead of other nations' delegates. It was the first time the North had sent officials to mourn a South Korean president.
Analysts say North Korea is making a tangible shift of policy from hardline to negotiation.
"Since mid-July Pyongyang has been using all available channels to indicate its willingness to talk. Obviously, they decided that they have escalated tensions high enough, so it's time to start looking for negotiations," said Andrei Lankov, a North Korea expert at Kookmin University in Seoul.
China is said to be behind Pyongyang's invitation of Mr Bosworth, the latest overture. The Chinese vice foreign minister Wu Dawei, who is also Beijing's nuclear envoy, visited Pyongyang last week.
"My understanding is that Wu played a brokering role," said Kim Yong-hyon, a professor of North Korean Studies at Dongguk University in Seoul.
North Korea's tension-thawing gestures are primarily aimed at the US, and it also sees the current regional political situation as a prime opportunity to do so.
"As Obama's North Korean policy team is getting in shape, North Korea wants to directly talk with the US to assuage its perceived security concerns and relieve diplomatic isolation," said Liu Jiangyong, a security expert at Tsinghua University in Beijing.
In response, the attitudes of the US and South Korea have also become more flexible. Besides the latest development of Mr Bosworth's expected visit to Pyongyang, South Korea also granted a meeting of North Korean funeral delegates to see President Lee Myung-bak, after some hesitance.
"North Korea has been so far successful with its peace overture," Mr Liu said. He added that Pyongyang's conciliatory gesture is also timed to coincide with Japan's election period, in the hope Japan might also take a more accommodating posture towards the North.
North Korea yesterday also agreed to a South Korean offer to hold Red Cross talks to organise a new round of reunions of families separated by the Korean war. Prof Kim of Dongguk University sees Pyongyang's gesture of improving ties with the South as ultimately aimed at mollifying the US.
"North Korea sees that the US would not improve its relationship with it unless the North first improves its relationship with South Korea - a key US ally," he said.
Analysts believe Kim Jong Il's health, which has been more stable lately, is also playing a role in the push for improving relations with the international community as he wants to hand over a more stable country to his young heir, the third son.
The focus of attention now is how the US will respond to Pyongyang's moves. Mr Lankov calls for a cautious approach.
"Negotiation is a good idea, but one should not forget that the recent crisis was entirely provoked by North Korea, whose leaders obviously hope to get more aid and more political concessions from the US, South Korea and the outside world," he said.
The Obama administration, however, will not be able to abandon sanctions and enter dialogue mode overnight because of the negative public opinion in the US towards the North following Pyongyang's missile and nuclear launches, analysts said.
"Obama cannot move so quickly. There are also different schools of thought within the US administration on how to deal with North Korea. So, North Korea should give Obama some time to sort things out," Mr Liu said.
But Mr Liu believes the current US policy of engaging bilaterally with Pyongyang only within the framework of six-party talks is flawed because it is likely to prolong the current stalemate.
"Our aim should [be to] prevent another North Korean nuclear test and ultimately persuade it to give up its entire nuclear programme. If we don't engage them, they will continue with their nuclear programmes," Mr Liu said. "So America shouldn't waste time."
foreign.desk@thenational.ae
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: N2 Technology
Founded: 2018
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Startups
Size: 14
Funding: $1.7m from HNIs
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
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England World Cup squad
Eoin Morgan (capt), Moeen Ali, Jofra Archer, Jonny Bairstow, Jos Buttler (wkt), Tom Curran, Liam Dawson, Liam Plunkett, Adil Rashid, Joe Root, Jason Roy, Ben Stokes, James Vince, Chris Woakes, Mark Wood
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
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The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
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A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
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The Abu Dhabi Awards explained:
What are the awards? They honour anyone who has made a contribution to life in Abu Dhabi.
Are they open to only Emiratis? The awards are open to anyone, regardless of age or nationality, living anywhere in the world.
When do nominations close? The process concludes on December 31.
How do I nominate someone? Through the website.
When is the ceremony? The awards event will take place early next year.
