BEIJING // North Korea is facing a countdown to collapse, according to analysts and media in the region, as the totalitarian state lurches from one crisis to another and the life expectancy of its aged leader Kim Jong Il is put at "less than three years".
A food shortage, malfunctioning markets, botched economic reform and the alleged execution of a senior official in charge of that reform to quell the mounting public discontent, compounded by reports of rare public protests in North Korea, has led some to predict the regime's demise
"If North Korea's situation goes on like this, its collapse will be a matter of 'counting down seconds'," South Korea's largest newspaper, Chosun Ilbo, said in a front-page analysis on Saturday. It added that the US assistant secretary of state, Kurt Campbell, recently said in a closed-door meeting in Seoul that Mr Kim, 68, is likely to survive only about three more years.
The paper also quoted remarks made at a conference on inter-Korean relations last week by Kim Young-Soo, a North Korea expert at Seoul's Sogang University, who said there was a real possibility of an "unprecendented contingency" in the North, a sudden transformation of the state either through a coup or civil unrest.
Ryu Kil-jae of the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul said the likelihood of Pyongyang's collapse was still some time off but was growing.
"The chance for a sudden upheaval in North Korea has already passed a 20 per cent threshold at least," he said.
Park Hyung-joong, a researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification in Seoul also speaking at the conference, said the North's plan to transfer power from Kim Jong Il to his youngest son - something that has become apparent in recent years through leaked reports from the North and which is much discussed in the South - will "eventually fail."
Lee Su-hyuck, a former chief nuclear negotiator for Seoul who also worked for South Korea's spy agency, the National Intelligence Service, told the conference it was time to prepare for North Korea's collapse.
Chosun Ilbo also had a link to an article titled: "Where does North Korea head in the post-Kim Jong Il era?"
Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University in Beijing, said Pyongyang's inability to implement political and economic order would ultimately bring about its demise.
"North Korea's economic, political malfunctioning now is very severe," said Prof Shi. "They failed in their monetary reforms recently. Orderly leadership succession is more urgent now, but the process is very much underperformed.
"It's possible for North Korea to collapse earlier than everyone previously predicted."
But Prof Shi added that North Korea's opaqueness makes it nearly impossible to verify external assessments of its internal chaos.
And others have cast doubt on those negative assessments.
Cheong Seong-chang, a North Korea expert at Seoul's Sejong Institute think-tank, said predictions of North Korea's collapse were more "wishful thinking" among those who want to see it happen, rather than an objective assessment of the situation.
"The North Korea collapse scenario is nothing new. It has been coming for 20 years since the collapse of the Eastern Europe socialist bloc. During the mid-1990s, the CIA chief even said North Korea would collapse within three months. It didn't," Mr Cheong said.
Kenneth Quinones, a former North Korea analyst at the US state department and now the dean for Korean Studies at Akita International University in Japan, agreed.
"I was at the White House 10 days ago. Nobody there agreed that North Korea is on the verge of collapse. They see North Korea continuing to function with its problems," Prof Quinones said.
He added that he did not believe the reports in certain South Korean media that Kurt Campbell, the US assistant secretary of state, had told officials in Seoul that Mr Kim had three years to live.
Mr Cheong said there were three main reasons the North is unlikely to collapse in the near future: Mr Kim has a firm grip over the ruling Worker's Party, which controls the military; the ruling elites are strong and united and have a shared interest in maintaining the regime that bestows so much privilege upon them; and despite the level of discontent among the North Korean public, they are unlikely to openly rebel, especially given the strength of the military.
The International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based think tank, said last week that despite the fact that North Korea has been shaken by sanctions and poor internal policy decisions that have generated public anger, the regime "has demonstrated an extraordinary ability to survive under pressure".
Some analysts also caution against the habit of media and researchers quoting North Korean defectors living in the South and dissidents from within North Korea to assess the country's current situation. These often paid informants tend to sensationalise the situation in the North for their own political purposes or for attention.
"President George W Bush made his judgment on the Iraqi weapons of mass destruction based on totally inaccurate information coming from Iraqi defectors," Prof Quinones said.
At the same time, however, Prof Shi said it would be wrong to dismiss the possibility of a crisis in the North. "Of course, we don't know for sure about North Korea's collapse. Possibility is possibility," he said. "But the potential for crisis is more pronounced in North Korea than ever."
foreign.desk@thenational.ae
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
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NO OTHER LAND
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Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
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Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
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Cryopreservation: A timeline
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The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203S%20Money%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202018%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20London%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ivan%20Zhiznevsky%2C%20Eugene%20Dugaev%20and%20Andrei%20Dikouchine%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20FinTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%245.6%20million%20raised%20in%20total%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Getting there
Flydubai flies direct from Dubai to Tbilisi from Dh1,025 return including taxes
Company%20Profile
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In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
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Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
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Starring: Nicole Kidman, Liev Schreiber, Jack Reynor
Creator: Jenna Lamia
Rating: 3/5
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Name: Tharb
Started: December 2016
Founder: Eisa Alsubousi
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: Luxury leather goods
Initial investment: Dh150,000 from personal savings
Ukraine
Capital: Kiev
Population: 44.13 million
Armed conflict in Donbass
Russia-backed fighters control territory
Volunteers offer workers a lifeline
Community volunteers have swung into action delivering food packages and toiletries to the men.
When provisions are distributed, the men line up in long queues for packets of rice, flour, sugar, salt, pulses, milk, biscuits, shaving kits, soap and telecom cards.
Volunteers from St Mary’s Catholic Church said some workers came to the church to pray for their families and ask for assistance.
Boxes packed with essential food items were distributed to workers in the Dubai Investments Park and Ras Al Khaimah camps last week. Workers at the Sonapur camp asked for Dh1,600 towards their gas bill.
“Especially in this year of tolerance we consider ourselves privileged to be able to lend a helping hand to our needy brothers in the Actco camp," Father Lennie Connully, parish priest of St Mary’s.
Workers spoke of their helplessness, seeing children’s marriages cancelled because of lack of money going home. Others told of their misery of being unable to return home when a parent died.
“More than daily food, they are worried about not sending money home for their family,” said Kusum Dutta, a volunteer who works with the Indian consulate.
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
Company%20profile
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Correspondents
By Tim Murphy
(Grove Press)
The biog
Favourite films: Casablanca and Lawrence of Arabia
Favourite books: Start with Why by Simon Sinek and Good to be Great by Jim Collins
Favourite dish: Grilled fish
Inspiration: Sheikh Zayed's visionary leadership taught me to embrace new challenges.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Name: Peter Dicce
Title: Assistant dean of students and director of athletics
Favourite sport: soccer
Favourite team: Bayern Munich
Favourite player: Franz Beckenbauer
Favourite activity in Abu Dhabi: scuba diving in the Northern Emirates
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
Long Shot
Director: Jonathan Levine
Starring: Charlize Theron, Seth Rogan
Four stars
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
