Afghanistan faces a "Saigon moment" of comprehensive defeat with the Taliban taking over Kabul after the withdrawal of US and Nato troops, leading politicians and academics have warned.
As 10,000 allied troops prepare to leave the country after 20 years combating the insurgency, there are growing fears the extremists will regain control of the country, a London-based think tank heard.
Despite two decades of attempting to rebuild after ousting the Taliban in 2001, the departing armies will leave Afghanistan “in a worse state than they found it”, the senior Conservative politician Tobias Ellwood told the Royal United Services Institute webinar.
Afghanistan will now face a key moment in its troubled history – all foreign troops will be gone by September 11 leaving the Afghan government and its armed forces to fight the Taliban largely on their own.
That the Taliban remains a dominant force is down to the “schoolboy error that you cannot defeat an insurgency by military means alone”, said Mr Ellwood, chairman of the UK House of Commons Defence Committee. He said the Taliban would have been more malleable had it been engaged in the political process post-2001.
But experts believe the extremists are growing in strength, especially in the countryside, with the Taliban waiting to stage a decisive attack after the drawdown is complete.
Large numbers of Afghan police had already surrendered and young men were volunteering to join the Taliban, said Dr Antonio Giustozzi, a Rusi associate fellow.
“They're preparing for the major offensive but they’ve not initiated it yet,” he said.
“Young villagers have been mobilised on to the Taliban side because there's a perception in the country that they are about to take power. They are simply joining up even without being recruited by the Taliban.”
Young villagers have been mobilised on to the Taliban side because there's a perception in the country that they are about to take power
He expressed concerns that no forward air controllers would be able to co-ordinate strikes from the US aircraft carrier in the Indian Ocean after the withdrawal, allowing for the insurgent to mass in cities before conducting synchronised attacks.
While US and British special forces might be able to hold Kabul, the rest of Afghanistan could fall to the Taliban, said William Byrd, of the United States Institute of Peace.
But there was also a strong possibility that Kabul itself could fall, much as the capital of South Vietnam did when the North Vietnamese Army’s tanks rolled through in 1975, Mr Ellwood said. “I'm afraid the more likely scenario is that as the withdrawal becomes more evident the Taliban will get more aggressive, far bolder, and we're going to see more attacks, which will usher in an expedited retreat, even leading to scenes that we saw in Saigon a few decades ago.”
While western countries pledge to continue funding the government and humanitarian projects, the nagging fear is that the Taliban's autocratic rule of strict Sharia will return, as it did in 1996 after Russia’s abrupt end to funding the Afghan rulers.
But he said any sharp cut in aid could result in "state collapse".US President Joe Biden has promised to keeping funding the Afghan government but it was "very naive" to think that aid "can be a substitute for troops," Mr Byrd said. "The risk is really the slow motion, administrative deterioration in the Afghan government and whether aid can do something to at least modify and reverse that," he told the webinar 'Afghanistan: What Prospects After US/NATO Withdrawal?'
Asked what the best scenario might be for Afghanistan, Mr Byrd suggested a military stalemate leading to “more suffering and violence and tragedies” could within two years “lead both sides eventually to the negotiating table”.
The insurgents would also want to promote the notion that they defeated the world's major superpower, Dr Giustozzi said, and therefore would “want a major share of power”.
Mr Ellwood said it was almost certain that UK and US special forces would be left behind to ensure that Al Qaeda and ISIS leaders did not return to regain a stranglehold.
Other experts fear such forces would only be able to keep Kabul safe, with the rest of the country facing Taliban rule or civil war.
There was anger in Britain, which lost 450 troops mostly in Helmand, that the US withdrawal was “not the exit strategy that we had envisaged”, said Mr Ellwood, a former defence minister. “I'm really concerned that we have not learnt any lessons,” he said. “I'm very sad and disappointed as to where we are today.”
How to invest in gold
Investors can tap into the gold price by purchasing physical jewellery, coins and even gold bars, but these need to be stored safely and possibly insured.
A cheaper and more straightforward way to benefit from gold price growth is to buy an exchange-traded fund (ETF).
Most advisers suggest sticking to “physical” ETFs. These hold actual gold bullion, bars and coins in a vault on investors’ behalf. Others do not hold gold but use derivatives to track the price instead, adding an extra layer of risk. The two biggest physical gold ETFs are SPDR Gold Trust and iShares Gold Trust.
Another way to invest in gold’s success is to buy gold mining stocks, but Mr Gravier says this brings added risks and can be more volatile. “They have a serious downside potential should the price consolidate.”
Mr Kyprianou says gold and gold miners are two different asset classes. “One is a commodity and the other is a company stock, which means they behave differently.”
Mining companies are a business, susceptible to other market forces, such as worker availability, health and safety, strikes, debt levels, and so on. “These have nothing to do with gold at all. It means that some companies will survive, others won’t.”
By contrast, when gold is mined, it just sits in a vault. “It doesn’t even rust, which means it retains its value,” Mr Kyprianou says.
You may already have exposure to gold miners in your portfolio, say, through an international ETF or actively managed mutual fund.
You could spread this risk with an actively managed fund that invests in a spread of gold miners, with the best known being BlackRock Gold & General. It is up an incredible 55 per cent over the past year, and 240 per cent over five years. As always, past performance is no guide to the future.
FIXTURES
All times UAE ( 4 GMT)
Friday
Saint-Etienne v Montpellier (10.45pm)
Saturday
Monaco v Caen (7pm)
Amiens v Bordeaux (10pm)
Angers v Toulouse (10pm)
Metz v Dijon (10pm)
Nantes v Guingamp (10pm)
Rennes v Lille (10pm)
Sunday
Nice v Strasbourg (5pm)
Troyes v Lyon (7pm)
Marseille v Paris Saint-Germain (11pm)
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Key recommendations
- Fewer criminals put behind bars and more to serve sentences in the community, with short sentences scrapped and many inmates released earlier.
- Greater use of curfews and exclusion zones to deliver tougher supervision than ever on criminals.
- Explore wider powers for judges to punish offenders by blocking them from attending football matches, banning them from driving or travelling abroad through an expansion of ‘ancillary orders’.
- More Intensive Supervision Courts to tackle the root causes of crime such as alcohol and drug abuse – forcing repeat offenders to take part in tough treatment programmes or face prison.
Cricket World Cup League Two
Oman, UAE, Namibia
Al Amerat, Muscat
Results
Oman beat UAE by five wickets
UAE beat Namibia by eight runs
Fixtures
Wednesday January 8 –Oman v Namibia
Thursday January 9 – Oman v UAE
Saturday January 11 – UAE v Namibia
Sunday January 12 – Oman v Namibia
Company%20profile
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Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
From Zero
Artist: Linkin Park
Label: Warner Records
Number of tracks: 11
Rating: 4/5
Director: Laxman Utekar
Cast: Vicky Kaushal, Akshaye Khanna, Diana Penty, Vineet Kumar Singh, Rashmika Mandanna
Rating: 1/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
What are the influencer academy modules?
- Mastery of audio-visual content creation.
- Cinematography, shots and movement.
- All aspects of post-production.
- Emerging technologies and VFX with AI and CGI.
- Understanding of marketing objectives and audience engagement.
- Tourism industry knowledge.
- Professional ethics.
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl
Power: 153hp at 6,000rpm
Torque: 200Nm at 4,000rpm
Transmission: 6-speed auto
Price: Dh99,000
On sale: now
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
ENGLAND SQUAD
Goalkeepers: Jack Butland, Jordan Pickford, Nick Pope
Defenders: John Stones, Harry Maguire, Phil Jones, Kyle Walker, Kieran Trippier, Gary Cahill, Ashley Young, Danny Rose, Trent Alexander-Arnold
Midfielders: Eric Dier, Jordan Henderson, Dele Alli, Jesse Lingard, Raheem Sterling, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Fabian Delph
Forwards: Harry Kane, Jamie Vardy, Marcus Rashford, Danny Welbeck
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Fast%20X
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The%20specs
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TWISTERS
Director: Lee Isaac Chung
Starring: Glen Powell, Daisy Edgar-Jones, Anthony Ramos
Rating: 2.5/5
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Revibe%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202022%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hamza%20Iraqui%20and%20Abdessamad%20Ben%20Zakour%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20UAE%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Refurbished%20electronics%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunds%20raised%20so%20far%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2410m%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFlat6Labs%2C%20Resonance%20and%20various%20others%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
SPECS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dual%20electric%20motors%20with%20102kW%20battery%20pack%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E570hp%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20890Nm%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERange%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Up%20to%20428km%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh1%2C700%2C000%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Cofe
Year started: 2018
Based: UAE
Employees: 80-100
Amount raised: $13m
Investors: KISP ventures, Cedar Mundi, Towell Holding International, Takamul Capital, Dividend Gate Capital, Nizar AlNusif Sons Holding, Arab Investment Company and Al Imtiaz Investment Group
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
%3Cp%3EName%3A%20DarDoc%3Cbr%3EBased%3A%20Abu%20Dhabi%3Cbr%3EFounders%3A%20Samer%20Masri%2C%20Keswin%20Suresh%3Cbr%3ESector%3A%20HealthTech%3Cbr%3ETotal%20funding%3A%20%24800%2C000%3Cbr%3EInvestors%3A%20Flat6Labs%2C%20angel%20investors%20%2B%20Incubated%20by%20Hub71%2C%20Abu%20Dhabi's%20Department%20of%20Health%3Cbr%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%2010%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
TICKETS
For tickets for the two-day Maharlika Pilipinas Basketball League (MPBL) event, entitled Dubai Invasion 2019, on September 27 and 28 go to www.meraticket.com.
T20 World Cup Qualifier A, Muscat
Friday, February 18: 10am - Oman v Nepal, Canada v Philippines; 2pm - Ireland v UAE, Germany v Bahrain
Saturday, February 19: 10am - Oman v Canada, Nepal v Philippines; 2pm - UAE v Germany, Ireland v Bahrain
Monday, February 21: 10am - Ireland v Germany, UAE v Bahrain; 2pm - Nepal v Canada, Oman v Philippines
Tuesday, February 22: 2pm – semi-finals
Thursday, February 24: 2pm – final
UAE squad: Ahmed Raza (captain), Muhammad Waseem, Chirag Suri, Vriitya Aravind, Rohan Mustafa, Kashif Daud, Zahoor Khan, Alishan Sharafu, Raja Akifullah, Karthik Meiyappan, Junaid Siddique, Basil Hameed, Zafar Farid, Mohammed Boota, Mohammed Usman, Rahul Bhatia
All matches to be streamed live on icc.tv
Roll%20of%20Honour%2C%20men%E2%80%99s%20domestic%20rugby%20season
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EWest%20Asia%20Premiership%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Dubai%20Tigers%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Bahrain%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20Premiership%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Jebel%20Ali%20Dragons%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Dubai%20Hurricanes%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20Division%201%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Dubai%20Sharks%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Abu%20Dhabi%20Harlequins%20II%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20Division%202%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Dubai%20Tigers%20III%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Dubai%20Sharks%20II%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDubai%20Sevens%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Dubai%20Tigers%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Dubai%20Hurricanes%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
LILO & STITCH
Starring: Sydney Elizebeth Agudong, Maia Kealoha, Chris Sanders
Director: Dean Fleischer Camp
Rating: 4.5/5
The Details
Article 15
Produced by: Carnival Cinemas, Zee Studios
Directed by: Anubhav Sinha
Starring: Ayushmann Khurrana, Kumud Mishra, Manoj Pahwa, Sayani Gupta, Zeeshan Ayyub
Our rating: 4/5
Ticket prices
General admission Dh295 (under-three free)
Buy a four-person Family & Friends ticket and pay for only three tickets, so the fourth family member is free
Buy tickets at: wbworldabudhabi.com/en/tickets
The Specs
Engine 3.8-litre, twin-turbo V8
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 582bhp (542bhp in GTS model)
Torque: 730Nm
Price: Dh649,000 (Dh549,000 for GTS)
The specs
Engine: 77.4kW all-wheel-drive dual motor
Power: 320bhp
Torque: 605Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh219,000
On sale: Now
MANDOOB
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Ali%20Kalthami%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%20Mohammed%20Dokhei%2C%20Sarah%20Taibah%2C%20Hajar%20Alshammari%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
Price, base / as tested: Dh182,178
Engine: 3.7-litre V6
Power: 350hp @ 7,400rpm
Torque: 374Nm @ 5,200rpm
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 10.5L / 100km
LIVING IN...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
HAJJAN
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Abu%20Bakr%20Shawky%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cbr%3EStarring%3A%20Omar%20Alatawi%2C%20Tulin%20Essam%2C%20Ibrahim%20Al-Hasawi%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cbr%3ERating%3A%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE v Gibraltar
What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)
