Coronavirus: India's cases pass 7 million mark as experts warn of complacency

India’s confirmed coronavirus toll exceeded 7 million on Sunday, while the number of daily new cases dipped in recent weeks and health analysts spoke of mask and distancing fatigue setting in.

The health ministry registered 74,383 more infections in 24 hours. India was expected to become the pandemic’s worst-hit country within weeks, surpassing the US, where more than 7.7 million infections were reported.

The ministry said 918 more people died, taking India's total to 108,334 in a country of nearly 1.4 billion.

The number of people who have died of Covid-19 has remained relatively low in South and South-East Asia compared to European countries and the United States, said Dr Randeep Guleria, a government health expert.

“We have been able to keep the curve rise slow, but I do agree that we have not been able to get it to move aggressively down. That’s related to our population density, diversity of our country and socio-economic challenges in our country,” he said.

Some experts said that India’s death toll figures may not be accurate because of poor reporting, weak health infrastructure and inadequate testing.

India aimed to provide vaccines to 250 million people by July next year, Health Minister Harsh Vardhan said last week. He said the government intended to acquire between 450 million and 500 million doses and ensure what he called “equitable access”.

India registered a steep rise in cases in July, added more than 2 million in August and another 3 million in September. But it has reported a slower pace of coronavirus spread since the middle of last month, when the daily infections touched a record high of 97,894. The average daily cases so far this month has been more than 70,000.

India has a high recovery rate of 85 per cent with active cases below 1 million, according to the health ministry.

Health officials warned about the potential for the virus to spread during the religious festivals season, which is marked by huge gatherings in temples and shopping districts.

A crucial factor will be people wearing masks and maintaining a safe distance from each other.

Dr SP Kalantri, a hospital director in the village of Sevagram in worst-hit Maharashtra state, said that people in his village had stopped wearing masks, keeping distance or washing their hands regularly.

India’s meagre health resources are poorly divided across the country. Nearly 600 million Indians live in rural areas, and with the virus hitting India’s vast hinterlands, experts are worried that hospitals could be overwhelmed.

“If we are able to have good behaviour in terms of physical distancing and masks, maybe by early next year we should be able to come to a new normal. Covid-19 will not finish but it will be under reasonable control with travel and other things becoming much more easier and people relatively safer,” said Dr Guleria.

Retired virologist Dr T Jacob John said there was an increasing tendency among Indians not to wear masks or keep their distance from others.

Social media compounded the problem with misinformation and fake cures. “And the result of this is that people have got fed up and have started making their own conclusions,” Dr John said.

Nationwide, India is testing more than 1 million samples per day, exceeding the World Health Organisation’s benchmark of 140 tests per 1 million people. But many of these are antigen tests, which look for virus proteins and are faster but less accurate than RT-PCR, which confirm the coronavirus by its genetic code.

With the economy contracting by a record 23.9 per cent in the April-June quarter, leaving millions jobless, the Indian government is continuing to relax lockdown restrictions that were imposed in March. The government in May announced a $266 billion stimulus package, but consumer demand and manufacturing are yet to recover.

Many offices, shops, businesses, bars and restaurants have reopened. Restricted domestic and international evacuation flights are being operated along with train services.