Afghan Vice President Abdul Rashid Dostum is set to return on Sunday, potentially ending weeks of protests by his supporters, after he was exiled to Turkey last year over accusations that he ordered the rape of a political rival.
The controversial former warlord will be officially welcomed back to Kabul, Yunus Tugra, an adviser to Gen Dostum said. “Everything is set up for his arrival. He is coming tomorrow with an official ceremony at airport and another special event at his office in the Sadarat Palace,” which hosts the vice president's office.
Gen Dostum will then resume his post in government, a spokesman to President Ashraf Ghani said on Saturday. "He will continue in his role as the first vice president to the Afghan President after his arrival to Kabul," Haroon Chakhansuri confirmed in a statement.
Recent violent protests by supporters of Gen Dostum's Junbish-i Milli party across several northern provinces have worsened an already febrile security situation. Demonstrators were angered by a government crackdown of strongmen, including Dostum loyalist militia leader Nizamuddin Qaisari, but later broadened their demands to include the return of the vice president.
Mr Tugra credited the protests with facilitating Gen Dostum’s return. “This was possible with people's sacrifices and hard work with 20 days of demonstrations,” he said.
Recent negotiations between key government officials and Gen Dostum may have placed conditions on his return, but they have not been made public. Mr Tugra, however, said that “no deal was made with the president” to enable his return.
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Questions over pending legal proceedings against Gen Dostum remain unanswered. The vice president was accused of personally beating and then ordering the violent sexual assault of former ally Ahmad Ishchi in 2016.
During a subsequent investigation, Gen Dostum's refused to attend court hearings, causing a rift between him and government. Amid increasing tensions and hostility, Gen Dostum left for Turkey on the pretext of seeking medical attention. He has since been prevented from returning, with those close to him accusing the coalition government of conspiring to keep the controversial vice president out of politics.
President Ghani acknowledged the matter in a press conference last week but did not divulge details. “The return issue of Dostum is under deliberation… I have talked with the attorney general because it is a legal issue, more information on this regard would be shared later with you,” he told local media.
Gen Dostum has not been formally charged but presidential adviser Mr Chankhansuri said that "issues related to justice and judicial institutions” would be dealt with in accordance to the law.
Mr Tugra, however, dismissed concerns over potential legal proceedings. “He never had concerns about the legal procedures. This was a political case rather than legal,” he claimed, adding that not allowing Gen Dostum to return would have been unconstitutional. “It was illegal to keep him out of the country, in the first place,” he said.
The vice president has a reputation for barbarism. An ethnic Uzbek militia leader renowned for cruelty, Gen Dostum has ruled over much of northern Afghanistan for 30 years, attracting numerous accusations of human rights violations and potential war crimes ranging from suffocating hundreds of Taliban inside metal containers to ordering tanks to run over prisoners.
The opportunistic strongman has proven a problematic ally to President Ghani. While in exile Gen Dostum has retained his title of vice president and influence among ethnic Uzbeks of northern Afghanistan, who feel marginalised by what they see as President Ghani’s Pashtun favouritism in the country’s mix of different ethnic groups.
With parliamentary elections looming in October and a presidential contest due next year, tensions have risen sharply as Afghanistan’s strongmen jostle for position in President Ghani’s awkward unity government.
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
