ISLAMABAD // Thousands of refugees have returned to their homes in Pakistan's militancy-plagued tribal territory, after the government announced it was calling off a military operation against Taliban insurgents there for the month of Ramadan.
An estimated 300,000 people had fled their homes in Bajaur, in Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas along the border with Afghanistan, since the military launched an operation last month to flush militants from the area. For Washington and others calling for robust action against Taliban and al Qa'eda in the tribal territory, the fierce fighting was a positive sign that Pakistan was at last taking on the extremists.
Additionally, reports said locals in Bajaur were raising their own traditional tribal armies - known as lashkar - to take on the militants. According to reports, a lashkar of up to 4,000 volunteers had been assembled by the Salarzai tribe to demolish compounds used by the Taliban.
But, the government over the weekend made the surprise announcement that hostilities in Bajaur would be halted for Ramadan. This came at a point when, according to the army, the militants were "on the run".
Following the ceasefire announcement by Rehman Malik, the interior ministry chief, refugees from Bajaur, who were living in squalid conditions in makeshift camps in neighbouring North West Frontier Province, quickly tried to make it home.
Jamil Amjad, the relief commissioner for NWFP, said that in the Lower Dir area, 50,000 displaced people left between Saturday and Sunday night, and that only 20,000 remained.
"The reports we're getting is that most of the people have indeed gone home," said Mr Amjad. "Nothing could be a substitute for their own home, no matter how poor and how small it may be."
But for some people, the return may be bittersweet. The Bajaur military operation was carried out mostly by aerial bombardment reducing some homes and communities to rubble, with the militants still a menace.
But people clearly wanted to be in familiar surroundings for Ramadan, in the hills of Bajaur, out of the heat of the camps and in homes where purdah can more easily be observed by the women.
Major Gen Athar Abbas, a spokesman for the army, said the ceasefire was not the military's decision and warned that it was contingent on the behaviour of the Taliban. He emphasised that it was a suspension, not a cessation, of operations.
"It all depends on the offensive action of the other side. If they attack, the response will be harsh," Major Gen Abbas said.
Some critics question why the government called the ceasefire, which applies to the entire tribal territory. Previous ceasefires have allowed the extremists to regroup and rearm.
A similar suspension of hostilities is expected in Swat, a valley in NWFP that the Taliban have attempted to take over. The militants in Bajaur had called for a ceasefire last week, apparently hurt by the military assault.
In the past, there had been criticism that the Pakistani security forces were holding back against the militants, but the Bajaur operation had seemed to be a genuine effort.
"No one can be blamed for characterising the suspension of military operations in the tribal areas as a weak-kneed response to the challenge of internationalised terror," thundered an editorial yesterday in Pakistan's Daily Times newspaper. "The right thing to do is to carry on the noble deed of rescuing the people of Pakistan during Ramadan and to think of resting only after the job is accomplished."
Politics may be the real reason for the truce. There is a presidential election on Sept 6 and members of parliament from the tribal area, as well as the Islamist parties, were against the operation in the FATA.
Asif Ali Zardari, whose Pakistan People's Party leads the coalition government, is set to secure the position, but the margin of victory will be important to his future credibility as president.
The tribal territory, which runs along the Afghan border, is a vital refuge for insurgents fighting Nato and Afghan forces in Afghanistan. While the Pakistani army operation did not extend to the epicentre of militancy, South Waziristan, Bajaur was an important base for the Pakistani and Afghan Taliban.
The impact of the government's decision to stop fighting there is likely to be felt across the border and all the way to Washington.
"The suspension announced by Malik means relief to the Taliban and al Qa'eda from fear of air strikes, which were hampering their cross-border terrorism into Afghanistan," said Bahukutumbi Raman, an analyst who was formerly head of India's RAW intelligence agency.
"This could result in an escalation of their attacks on the US and other Nato forces in Afghan territory during the period of Ramadan, when jihadi terrorists tend to step up their attacks."
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Election pledges on migration
CDU: "Now is the time to control the German borders and enforce strict border rejections"
SPD: "Border closures and blanket rejections at internal borders contradict the spirit of a common area of freedom"
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In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
