'Battle won, but not the war'

Islamabad // Pro-democracy groups celebrated Pervez Musharraf's resignation yesterday as an opportunity to end the country's long history of military rule. Few Pakistanis, however, were under any illusion to the challenges ahead as the country faces threats from pro-Taliban and al Qa'eda militants as well as an economic crisis and a civilian leadership with a legacy of corruption and ineptitude. Opinion polls had shown that the majority of Pakistanis had wanted Mr Musharraf, the former commando who seized power in 1999, to resign. He had committed a series of blunders that began with the sacking of the chief justice in March 2007 and culminated with his imposition of a state of emergency in November in order to be re-elected while still army chief. The public also held him responsible for the bloody commando operation against Islamabad's Red Mosque in 2007, the illegal detention and rendition of terrorist suspects to the United States and the violent suppression of a lawyers' rally that led his political allies to kill 42 people in Karachi. In the end, he had to go because he had failed to establish his own power base. Washington, keen to burnish its credentials as a harbinger of global democracy, had set its key ally in the "war on terrorism" an almost impossible task: step down as army chief, hold free and fair elections and remain in power. In many ways, Mr Musharraf had served his purpose. He had, ostensibly, reversed Pakistan's pro-Taliban stance, handed over a handful of key al Qa'eda leaders and espoused an acceptable liberalism that was dubbed "enlightened moderation". However, he had become unpopular at home at a time of rampant anti-Americanism, and Washington needed a popular, democratic government in Islamabad to persuade Pakistanis on their own need to tackle extremism. Last year, the White House referred to him as "an indispensable ally". This week, Condoleezza Rice, the US secretary of state, described him in the past perfect tense, saying Mr Musharraf "has been a good ally". US officials had begun to leak reports of dissatisfaction with his control over the ISI agency and its links with the Taliban. The British and US-backed plan that envisaged him sharing power with the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) was blown apart with the brutal realities of Pakistani politics: the party's leader was assassinated and the two parties loathe each other. The ruling PPP took pre-emptive action. It was concerned that Mr Musharraf, who had been weakened by stepping down as army chief in November and when his party fared poorly in February's election, might use an intelligence agency to undermine the coalition government. Also, the PPP's partner, the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) of Nawaz Sharif, who Mr Musharraf ousted in a military coup, had threatened to pull out of the coalition unless action was taken against the president. The army had withdrawn its political support for Mr Musharraf in its bid to step back to allow the civilian government to prosper and to mend its own reputation, battered by eight years of military rule and the unpopular prosecution of "America's war". The civilian government must now step into the void to bear the responsibility for counter-terrorism operations and set aside partisan rivalry to provide the country with stability. But Mr Musharraf's departure has left the country in the hands of two political families that are synonymous with poor governance and corruption. The PPP's main candidate to replace Mr Musharraf is Asif Ali Zardari, Benazir Bhutto's widower, who was known during his wife's two tenures in power as "Mr 10 Per Cent" on account of the alleged kickbacks he received on government contracts. His candidature is controversial and still in doubt. According to the constitution, Mohammadmian Soomro, a Musharraf ally and the chairman of the senate, which is the upper house of parliament, will become president until parliament votes to choose a new president within 30 days. Traditionally, in Pakistan, the president has been a figurehead with the prime minister holding most powers, but ironically, due to the grip he holds on his party, if Mr Zardari takes office, Pakistan would continue to be ruled by a more presidential system. The coalition partners will soon have to agree on major constitutional amendments aimed at restoring primacy to parliament by scrapping a controversial presidential power that allows the president to dissolve parliament. The coalition government, which proved to be incapable of governing while Mr Musharraf was in power, will struggle to stay united and suppress its deep-seated rivalries. "Musharraf lost legitimacy. But the coalition partners, given their performance up until right now, have shown that they are not geared to providing stability and government. They had one scapegoat for their failures and they have now just thrown him out," said Ejaz Haider, a liberal political analyst and commentator. The two parties have pledged to remain united in a spirit of reconciliation to face Pakistan's myriad problems. It remains to be seen whether Mr Sharif's political ambitions will outweigh his good intentions. Analysts also question whether the coalition government will be able to build on Mr Musharraf's success in advancing the India-Pakistan peace process. Since elections and the unravelling of Mr Musharraf's grip on power, tensions have flared again between the two nuclear countries on the border of the disputed territory of divided Kashmir as hardliners within Pakistan's establishment have flexed their muscles. There remains the question of how the two coalition partners will resolve an issue over which they have already fought: the restoration of the judges Mr Musharraf fired. Mr Zardari may be reluctant to restore judges who questioned the legality of one of the chief facets of the failed Musharraf-PPP power sharing deal: an amnesty on corruption charges. The government must also tackle such economic problems as inflation, which is at its highest in years, and widening trade and fiscal deficits. High oil prices have depleted foreign reserves while the rupee has lost about one-quarter of its value this year. For western ears, Mr Musharraf used to say that being a military strongman he had "unity of command". In theory, Ashfaq Kiyani, the current, all-powerful chief of army staff, retains that command and the confidence of Washington. Pakistani forces have conducted a bloody campaign against militants on the tribal areas. However, the West continues to suspect elements of Pakistan's military intelligence of aiding al Qa'eda and Taliban militants. A civilian government may be even less successful than Mr Musharraf in reining in these religious, nationalist elements who regard jihadis as a "national asset". Past Pakistani civilian governments have been undermined and removed by the military. With Mr Musharraf gone, once again the army and a civilian government will have to negotiate a balance of power. For PPP officials, yesterday's removal of Mr Musharraf was a blow against the establishment they consider responsible for the assassination of Bhutto. "It was an opportunity for the first time for power to be handed to a civilian government and given a free hand to govern the country," said a senior PPP official. "The battle has been won, but not the war," said Asfandiyar Wali Khan, the leader of Awami National Party, which governs the insurgency-hit North West Frontier Province. @email:iwilkinson@thenational.ae