BEIJING // The seizure of North Korean weapons by Thai authorities last week, based on a tip-off from the United States, is not likely to derail the just-launched direct negotiations between the US and North Korea, analysts said.
But the timing of the seizure raised fresh questions about the role of the US government, especially on internal disputes in the Obama administration on dealing with North Korea.
On Friday, marking the first public comments by the White House on the destination of the arms, which consisted of 35 tonnes of missile parts, rocket-propelled grenades and other weapons, Dennis Blair, the director of national intelligence, said in a comment piece in The Washington Post that "teamwork among different agencies in the United States and partners abroad just last week led to the interception of a Middle East-bound cargo of North Korean weapons".
Mr Blair's comment was also the first official confirmation on the US role in the case. He did not name the specific Middle East country to which the weapons were supposed to be delivered.
The chartered aeroplane, the owner of which appears to be Georgian but has in the past been identified in previous trafficking cases under different owners, departed from North Korea and was intercepted in Bangkok where it stopped for refuelling.
Japanese media outlets said the plane was then scheduled to head to the Gulf, before returning to Europe. "I suspect the loaded weapons were likely to go to Yemen," said Ken Jimbo, a security analyst with Keio University in Tokyo, citing the country as having a history of arms trade with North Korea. He added that yesterday the Japanese Sankei newspaper reported that the final destination was Iran, citing Thai officials.
North Korea maintains arms trade relationships with several Middle Eastern and African countries, such as Somalia.
According to Mr Jimbo, an estimated US$1 billion (Dh3.7bn) in arms deals is carried out annually between North Korea and countries in the Middle East and Africa.
The timing of the North Korean arms seizure is raising fresh questions about the attitude of the US government in its dealings with North Korea. For observers of the long-time, chequered talks over North Korea's nuclear programme, it was déjà vu.
In 2007, the major tension-thawing agreement made between North Korea and the United States stalled only one month later when the United States accused a Macao-based bank that had ties with North Korea of engaging in money laundering and distributing fake US dollars manufactured by the government of North Korea. The United States pressured the bank, Banco Delta Asia, to freeze the North Korean account. The significant pact, in which North Korea agreed to take steps towards denuclearisation, was halted.
The reports on North Korea's manufacturing of counterfeit US money created a negative public opinion in the United States, cornering the group within the US administration, led by the then-secretary of state, Condoleezza Rice, that advocated engagement with North Korea. Hardliners led by the vice president, Dick Cheney, used the treasury department's investigation into North Korea's suspicious financial transactions to sabotage the fledgling tension-thawing movement with North Korea.
There are similarities this time. The announcement of the seizure of North Korean weapons came within a week of a visit to Pyongyang by Stephen Bosworth, Mr Obama's point man on North Korea and just when renewed hopes for new talks over the North Korean nuclear programme were taking shape. Again, the US government was behind the interdiction effort.
North Korea watchers attributed the timing to chance.
"I think we have a coincidence here," said Leon Sigal, the director of the Northeast Asia Co-operative Security Project at the Social Science Research Council in New York. "North Koreans happened to deliver something that happened to be timed with Bosworth's visit to Pyongyang. I don't think there was anything deliberate on either side, designed to show something in the context of the talks. Unlike the George W Bush administration, the Obama team is unified in its strategy of dealing with North Korea."
The Thai seizure of the North's arms was to enforce United Nations Resolution 1874, passed in June after North Korean missile and nuclear tests. "I would hope that none of the parties treat this as something designed to get in the way of the negotiations," Mr Sigal said.
Despite the setback, observers believe that both the United States and North Korea will continue to play through the talks in which the North continues to complain about the sanctions and Washington will continue to apply UN-mandated sanctions.
"The US has designed the two-track strategy just for this very reason," said a Chinese analyst on North Korea who spoke on condition of anonymity because of his affiliation with a government security think tank.
"The one track is to continue to engage in North Korea through talks. The other track is to apply sanctions."
Mr Jimbo in Tokyo said: "The arms deal episode is incidental, not deliberate."
foreign.desk@thenational.ae
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In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
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Is it worth it? We put cheesecake frap to the test.
The verdict from the nutritionists is damning. But does a cheesecake frappuccino taste good enough to merit the indulgence?
My advice is to only go there if you have unusually sweet tooth. I like my puddings, but this was a bit much even for me. The first hit is a winner, but it's downhill, slowly, from there. Each sip is a little less satisfying than the last, and maybe it was just all that sugar, but it isn't long before the rush is replaced by a creeping remorse. And half of the thing is still left.
The caramel version is far superior to the blueberry, too. If someone put a full caramel cheesecake through a liquidiser and scooped out the contents, it would probably taste something like this. Blueberry, on the other hand, has more of an artificial taste. It's like someone has tried to invent this drink in a lab, and while early results were promising, they're still in the testing phase. It isn't terrible, but something isn't quite right either.
So if you want an experience, go for a small, and opt for the caramel. But if you want a cheesecake, it's probably more satisfying, and not quite as unhealthy, to just order the real thing.
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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Director: Rohit Shetty
Stars: Ajay Devgn, Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ranveer Singh, Akshay Kumar, Tiger Shroff, Deepika Padukone
Rating: 3/5
Teaching in coronavirus times
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
