After a year of record bloodshed, Afghans are bracing for an even deadlier 2019 with the threat of a US drawdown and a looming presidential vote likely to fuel violence.
President Donald Trump's plan to slash the number of US soldiers in Afghanistan before negotiators have struck a peace deal with the Taliban has crushed hopes among many Afghans for an end to the 17-year conflict.
The news, which the White House has not confirmed, capped a particularly violent year - a feat in the war-weary country which by some estimates has overtaken Syria as the world's deadliest conflict zone this year.
Ordinary Afghans, who have long borne the brunt of the relentless fighting, say they feel increasingly despondent about the future as the Taliban and the ISIS adapt to ramped up security to carry out almost daily attacks on civilians and security forces.
"It is getting worse every day," says electrical engineering student Mohammad Hussain in Kabul, one of the deadliest places in the country for civilians.
"The security we had four or five years back was better than now. Even when we don't have attacks in Kabul, we are waiting for something to happen."
Zabihullah Shirzad, who owns a garbage collecting company in the Afghan capital, said he could not remember a bloodier year than 2018 and predicted 2019 would be even deadlier.
"We will see more killing and bloodshed," the 42-year old says.
"I am not optimistic about the peace talks."
Their gloomy comments reflect the findings of a Gallup poll published in October, which showed an unprecedented level of pessimism among Afghans.
And an Asia Foundation study in December suggested more than 60 per cent of Afghans thought the country was moving in the wrong direction – unchanged from a year earlier.
Several key indicators show Afghan security locked in a downward spiral, underscoring their negativity.
Civilian deaths hit a record high in the first half of the year, while the Taliban are slaughtering Afghan forces in greater numbers than ever before.
This year was also marked by some of the deadliest suicide attacks since the start of the war in 2001, including an ambulance bomb blast that targeted a crowded street in Kabul in January, killing more than 100 people and wounding hundreds more.
The bloodshed was exacerbated by Trump's more aggressive strategy for Afghanistan, which he reluctantly announced in August 2017, putting thousands more US boots on the ground and giving its air units greater leeway to go after the Taliban and ISIS.
One estimate puts the number of conflict-related deaths at more than 40,000 this year – almost equal to the combined total for Syria and Yemen – according to data compiled by the US-based Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project.
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Afghanistan also took the unenviable title of the deadliest country in the world for journalists, with 15 media workers killed, including AFP chief photographer Shah Marai.
Adding to the misery was the worst drought in recent history, which forced more than 250,000 people to abandon their homes, overwhelming humanitarian agencies as they struggled to provide enough food and shelter.
Thousands of displaced families have set up makeshift tents on the edge of cities, and some are even selling their young daughters into marriage to repay debt or buy food.
"It was a very bad year – the situation has not improved at all," said Thomas Ruttig, co-director of Afghanistan Analysts Network.
Some observers saw positive signs that, if the circumstances are right, could translate into good news in 2019.
An unprecedented three-day ceasefire in June was widely celebrated by Afghans taking selfies and sharing ice cream with Taliban fighters, seemingly underscoring the desire for peace on both sides.
And the insurgents' apparent willingness to meet with US officials as part of a push for peace talks in recent months could bode well for a deal, said Lotfullah Najafizada, director of Afghanistan's largest private broadcaster Tolo News.
"I think Afghanistan will pass 2019 with some success. I hope it will be a historic year," Najafizada said.
But slashing US troop numbers – which many fear would be a harbinger for a full withdrawal – before any deal is struck could trigger a civil war "with a regional dimension", warned Davood Moradian, director general of the Afghan Institute for Strategic Studies.
Ruttig said Washington should put Afghanistan's need for peace ahead of its own desire to pull out troops and save money.
"They are as much a part of the problem as they could be the solution," he said, describing US policy in Afghanistan as "dysfunctional".
Another spoiler in 2019 could be Afghanistan's presidential election, originally scheduled for April 20 but now likely to be pushed back to the summer.
The vote, which President Ashraf Ghani plans to contest, could unleash a similar wave of violence that marred October's shambolic and bloody parliamentary election.
But after so many years of war, Afghans are "more resilient" and the country would survive, Moradian said.
"Many Afghans have learned to live with the chronic pain of war," he said.
"That pain does not stop them pursuing a normal life."
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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