India’s second coronavirus wave, fuelled by the local Delta variant, is “plateauing but becoming endemic” in certain areas, experts said.
The highly infectious strain that was first detected in the country last October has spread rapidly since March. It has claimed more than 250,000 lives and infected more than 22 million people, pushing the nation’s healthcare system to the brink of collapse.
But in recent weeks there have been a dip in case numbers, with daily confirmed infection numbers largely stabilising except in certain pockets of the vast nation of 1.3 billion people.
The Indian health ministry reported more than 42,000 new cases and 532 deaths on Thursday, with more than half of the infection cases being reported from Kerala state.
The small southern state, with a population of 34 million, is suffering a surge in numbers that experts blame on the delayed spread of the Delta variant in the region.
But other states, such as Delhi, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh, that were ravaged by the outbreak at the peak of the second wave, have shown a decline in infections.
Delhi on Thursday reported 50 new cases and no deaths from the average of more than 30,000 daily cases and 300 deaths in May.
Case numbers also fell in western Maharashtra, where new daily cases are averaging 6,000 – more than 10 times lower than in May.
The deadly surge left patients scrambling for hospital beds and millions struggled to procure medicines and oxygen while overwhelmed crematoriums and graveyards operated day and night.
Dr T Jacob John, an independent virologist, said the second wave sparked by the Delta variant is receding as the infection cases are plateauing, but that the variant has entered an endemic stage.
“We can’t say the worst is over but India is now plateauing ... cases are not going down further but also not going up. The declining slope of the second wave was over by July 7 and the stable numbers indicate 'endemic' prevalence,” Dr John, told The National.
“India already had a mega surge in Delta variant as the second wave was dominated by this variant that covered pretty much most of the country. Kerala is one exception that is catching up with the Delta variant,” Dr John said.
Departments of Physics and Biology at Ashoka University
He said that serological surveillance studies, which monitor antibodies, show that some parts of the country, such as Kerala, have a susceptible population and could suffer a surge.
India continues to be the second worst hit nation by the pandemic, after the US, with nearly 32 million cases and more than 425,000 deaths.
The latest nationwide serological survey by the Indian Council of Medical Research across 70 districts last month found that 67 per cent of Indians over the age of six, in rural and urban areas, have antibodies in their blood against the Covid-19 virus.
The Delta variant, that is twice as infectious as the original Covid-19 strain, soon spread globally, infecting about 200 million people in 132 countries and in some cases further mutated into another variant, Delta Plus.
Countries like the United States, United Kingdom and Indonesia are grappling with a surge in the number of infections linked to the variant.
Many experts predict a third wave in the country and concerns are high over the possibility of a new variant triggering an outbreak as the country lags on the vaccination front.
Several models predict a Delta variant-driven third wave in September-October this year, albeit much smaller in numbers, with daily infections predicted at a high of about 150,000, almost a third of the infection cases during the second wave.
But experts say a combination of a new variant and lack of immunisation could trigger a disastrous spell of infections.
Concerns are growing over India’s slow pace of vaccination, which continues to be marred by a shortage of doses and vaccine hesitancy, more than six months after the country launched the world’s largest inoculation drive.
India has administered more than 480 million doses, among which are the 8 per cent of the population who are fully vaccinated. About 28 per cent of the population has received a single dose.
“If there are new variants that can substantially evade immunity granted by a prior infection from the Delta variant or from vaccination, then we run the risk of repeating what happened in the second wave,” Gautam Menon, a professor at Ashoka University's Departments of Physics and Biology, told The National.
“Our vaccination levels are still not high enough that they should be a significant contributor to preventing a resurgence of disease,” he said.
