RABAT // It is chilly today in New York, and possibly chilliest in a suburban room where rival North African diplomats are squaring off over the disputed Western Sahara after three decades of war, failed peace plans and bad blood.
Morocco controls most of the desert territory, contested by the Polisario Front, an Algerian-backed independence movement. New talks launched in August have since stalled as Morocco has arrested prominent Saharawi activists it accuses of working for the Polisario and the Polisario has accused Morocco of endangering the peace process.
Today the two sides are meeting in the New York suburb of Armonk to resume efforts to end the conflict, which cripples economic growth in North Africa and divides 200,000 Saharawis between Western Sahara and refugee camps in the Algerian desert. Both have vowed to make diplomacy work. But analysts say a lack of new ideas threatens to prolong the dispute.
"I feel the reason they're having talks is because nobody has a better idea what to do," said Jacob Mundy, a North Africa expert and co-author of a forthcoming book on the Western Sahara conflict. "These aren't negotiations; this is more like therapy."
The UN has billed today's meeting as the second in a series of informal icebreakers meant as a prelude to full-blown negotiations. That allows Moroccan and Polisario leaders to reassure their constituents that diplomacy is under way despite the lack of concrete advances, said Anna Theofilopoulou, a former UN official who worked on Western Sahara negotiations during the late 1990s and early 2000s.
With plenty of grievances on offer, today's talks "could turn into a shouting match, which would reduce the possibility of having more negotiations," Mr Mundy said.
The trouble started in 1975 when Spanish colonisers withdrew from Western Sahara, and Morocco and Mauritania invaded, claiming historical ties. That kicked off a 16-year war with the Polisario, which had previously contested Spanish rule.
Mauritania surrendered, but Morocco annexed most of the territory. In 1991 the UN arranged a ceasefire to allow a referendum on the territory's future, but the vote foundered on disagreements over voter lists.
A further setback came in 1999 with the death of the Moroccan king, Hassan II, after three decades on the throne.
"The peace process that led to arrival of the UN began with the secret meetings in the 1980s between Polisario and Moroccan officials," Mr Mundy said. "It took a long time for the trust to build up."
Hassan's son, King Mohamed VI, swept into power with reformist moves that included firing his father's dreaded interior minister, Driss Basri. However, that also led Morocco to reshuffle its diplomatic team for Western Sahara and abandon Hassan II's commitment to a referendum, Mr Mundy said.
In 2004 Morocco rejected a UN peace plan calling for a period of autonomy followed by a referendum in which both Moroccan and Saharawi residents of Western Sahara would vote.
Morocco now rules out independence and proposes autonomy for Western Sahara, which it says would provide self-determination for Saharawis. The Polisario still wants a referendum with independence as an option. Neither has shown willingness yet to back down, analysts say.
"The Polisario hasn't indicated how much power-sharing it might contemplate," Mr Mundy said. "But it won't do that unless Morocco recommits to a referendum with the option of independence."
For the past few years, sporadic meetings have alternated between accusations of human-rights abuses by Moroccan authorities in Western Sahara and mutual cries of bad faith.
A report last month by Human Rights Watch said Morocco had backtracked on human rights in 2009, including in Western Sahara, after several years of improvements. Morocco said the report was unfair.
Since October, Morocco has jailed or detained prominent Saharawi activists it says are working for the Polisario. In November it expelled the activist Aminatou Haidar to Spain; she was allowed to return to Western Sahara following a month-long hunger strike in a Spanish airport and eleventh-hour diplomacy by the United States and France.
The Polisario responded with warnings that the round of talks begun in August were in jeopardy, seen by some analysts as a veiled threat to withdraw.
Meanwhile, Morocco is planning to devolve some power to its regions - a move it says will enhance development and democracy, but which is widely seen as a tactic to undercut the Polisario's call for an independent Western Sahara by implementing a repackaged autonomy plan.
All of that has left little occasion for the diplomacy to advance.
"The Polisario knew and understood and worked with Hassan II's negotiating team," Mr Mundy said. "They haven't had much chance to work with Mohamed VI's negotiating team."
@Email:jthorne@thenational.ae
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NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
Like a Fading Shadow
Antonio Muñoz Molina
Translated from the Spanish by Camilo A. Ramirez
Tuskar Rock Press (pp. 310)
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Company%20Profile
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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New schools in Dubai
Indika
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The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
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UAE%20v%20West%20Indies
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In numbers
1,000 tonnes of waste collected daily:
- 800 tonnes converted into alternative fuel
- 150 tonnes to landfill
- 50 tonnes sold as scrap metal
800 tonnes of RDF replaces 500 tonnes of coal
Two conveyor lines treat more than 350,000 tonnes of waste per year
25 staff on site
When Umm Kulthum performed in Abu Dhabi
Known as The Lady of Arabic Song, Umm Kulthum performed in Abu Dhabi on November 28, 1971, as part of celebrations for the fifth anniversary of the accession of Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan as Ruler of Abu Dhabi. A concert hall was constructed for the event on land that is now Al Nahyan Stadium, behind Al Wahda Mall. The audience were treated to many of Kulthum's most well-known songs as part of the sold-out show, including Aghadan Alqak and Enta Omri.
If you go...
Fly from Dubai or Abu Dhabi to Chiang Mai in Thailand, via Bangkok, before taking a five-hour bus ride across the Laos border to Huay Xai. The land border crossing at Huay Xai is a well-trodden route, meaning entry is swift, though travellers should be aware of visa requirements for both countries.
Flights from Dubai start at Dh4,000 return with Emirates, while Etihad flights from Abu Dhabi start at Dh2,000. Local buses can be booked in Chiang Mai from around Dh50
Credits
Produced by: Colour Yellow Productions and Eros Now
Director: Mudassar Aziz
Cast: Sonakshi Sinha, Jimmy Sheirgill, Jassi Gill, Piyush Mishra, Diana Penty, Aparshakti Khurrana
Star rating: 2.5/5
'Gold'
Director:Anthony Hayes
Stars:Zaf Efron, Anthony Hayes
Rating:3/5
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
The%20Caine%20Mutiny%20Court-Martial%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EWilliam%20Friedkin%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EKiefer%20Sutherland%2C%20Jason%20Clarke%2C%20Jake%20Lacy%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E3%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
