JUBA // This dusty outpost along the Nile erupted in jubilation yesterday, as voters celebrated the likely birth date of the world's newest nation. Singing, drumming and ululations pierced the air in polling centres around the city on the first of seven days of voting to determine whether Southern Sudan will declare independence.
Such was the excitement that people queued for hours before polling began at 8am.
"It is history in the making," said Victoria Athou. "One can wait a whole day as long as one is going to vote for freedom."
It is almost universally expected that the mainly Christian and animist south will choose secession from the Muslim north, which has been accused of deliberately withholding resources from this vast, underdeveloped swath of sub-Saharan Africa.
The referendum comes as a result of a peace agreement signed on January 9, 2005, ending a war that lasted almost half a century. In the second phase alone, sparked by Khartoum's attempt to impose Sharia law throughout the entire country in 1983, an estimated two million people were killed.
Jacob Aleer Deng, who joined the rebel Southern Peoples Liberation Army (SPLA) at age 17, said the referendum proved war was not waged in vain.
"I was fighting for what happened today, to liberate my country," he said minutes after casting his ballot. "Now I've succeeded."
The wartime experiences of many no doubt contributed to yesterday's emotionally charged atmosphere.
Reuben Taban Gaithony began chanting independence slogans, and was quickly joined by voters waiting in line with him. He said he was a former SPLA captain who was captured by the northern army and tortured before he managed to escape.
"I had internal injuries," recalled Mr Gaithony. "They beat me with sticks and broke one rib."
Many voters said they hoped independence brought not only peace, but also economic development and other opportunities.
"I want my children to live in a free country with education and healthy living," said Margaret Alela, a mother of five. "I hope that the new government will deliver these things."
The government of a newly independent Southern Sudan would have a hard time meeting such expectations quickly. A document distributed by the United Nations, entitled "Scary Statistics", reveals some of the challenges: 85 per cent of the region's adults are illiterate, pregnancy kills one of every seven women carrying children, and half the population survives on less than US$1 (Dh3) a day.
The southern government is counting on plentiful oil reserves, which currently account for 98 per cent of its revenues, to deliver development. But oil is at the murky heart of one of the key challenges in the post-referendum period.
While most of Sudan's oil lies in the landlocked south, the pipeline to bring oil to export markets runs through the north. An independent south would have to negotiate carefully with Khartoum to share profits from oil equitably, as required by the 2005 peace agreement.
A report released January 6 by Global Witness, a natural resources watchdog group, accused Khartoum of under-reporting production, saying the country could be producing as much as 26 per cent more oil than the government admits. As a result, the group claimed, it is impossible to determine if oil profits are being shared fairly.
"A new oil deal between the north and south is critical to preventing a return to full-scale war," Global Witness warned.
The oil question is further complicated by the fact that much of the reserves are located on a frontier that has yet to be defined in many places.
Oil is not the only challenge to drawing a permanent border. Nomadic cattle herders are worried about losing grazing rights in an independent Southern Sudan, a situation that threatens to spark a war in the Abyei region. The Messiria, a cattle-herding tribe that identifies with the north, have clashed with the Dinka, who consider themselves southerners. Speaking in Juba on Saturday, US Senator John Kerry said the status of Abyei was one of the most important issues to be resolved if Southern Sudan chooses independence.
The actor George Clooney, who has taken up the Southern Sudanese cause as a personal crusade, visited Abyei days ago and said the mood was significantly different than that of Juba.
"They feel a bit left out; they're a little anxious," he told reporters at a polling station yesterday morning. "You have to consider Abyei as a key piece to moving forward."
But Mr Clooney and others have mentioned the great strides made in recent months by both the northern and southern governments to work towards a peaceful referendum.
Even the chair of the Southern Sudan Referendum Bureau, Justice Chan Reec Madut, said yesterday he was surprised that the referendum was actually happening.
"We are at that stage today, though it was doubted by a number of people including myself," he said.
Mr Madut said the overwhelming enthusiasm on display in the southern capital was matched in villages and towns throughout the south: "The turnout was equally emotional, the same as it was this morning in Juba."
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
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Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
RESULTS
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Winner: AF Lewaa, Bernardo Pinheiro, Qaiss Aboud.
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, (Leon banned).
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Roll of honour: Who won what in 2018/19?
West Asia Premiership: Winners – Bahrain; Runners-up – Dubai Exiles
UAE Premiership: Winners – Abu Dhabi Harlequins; Runners-up – Jebel Ali Dragons
Dubai Rugby Sevens: Winners – Dubai Hurricanes; Runners-up – Abu Dhabi Harlequins
UAE Conference: Winners – Dubai Tigers; Runners-up – Al Ain Amblers
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
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Will the pound fall to parity with the dollar?
The idea of pound parity now seems less far-fetched as the risk grows that Britain may split away from the European Union without a deal.
Rupert Harrison, a fund manager at BlackRock, sees the risk of it falling to trade level with the dollar on a no-deal Brexit. The view echoes Morgan Stanley’s recent forecast that the currency can plunge toward $1 (Dh3.67) on such an outcome. That isn’t the majority view yet – a Bloomberg survey this month estimated the pound will slide to $1.10 should the UK exit the bloc without an agreement.
New Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said that Britain will leave the EU on the October 31 deadline with or without an agreement, fuelling concern the nation is headed for a disorderly departure and fanning pessimism toward the pound. Sterling has fallen more than 7 per cent in the past three months, the worst performance among major developed-market currencies.
“The pound is at a much lower level now but I still think a no-deal exit would lead to significant volatility and we could be testing parity on a really bad outcome,” said Mr Harrison, who manages more than $10 billion in assets at BlackRock. “We will see this game of chicken continue through August and that’s likely negative for sterling,” he said about the deadlocked Brexit talks.
The pound fell 0.8 per cent to $1.2033 on Friday, its weakest closing level since the 1980s, after a report on the second quarter showed the UK economy shrank for the first time in six years. The data means it is likely the Bank of England will cut interest rates, according to Mizuho Bank.
The BOE said in November that the currency could fall even below $1 in an analysis on possible worst-case Brexit scenarios. Options-based calculations showed around a 6.4 per cent chance of pound-dollar parity in the next one year, markedly higher than 0.2 per cent in early March when prospects of a no-deal outcome were seemingly off the table.
Bloomberg
The Details
Kabir Singh
Produced by: Cinestaan Studios, T-Series
Directed by: Sandeep Reddy Vanga
Starring: Shahid Kapoor, Kiara Advani, Suresh Oberoi, Soham Majumdar, Arjun Pahwa
Rating: 2.5/5
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